At first glance, it looks like a major assertion of American power in Greenland and perhaps a victory for Trump’s pressure tactics.
asserted
it → look → tactics
A closer look suggests something rather different: The United States has largely secured the same military rights it already possessed under the 1951 defence agreement with Denmark.
uncertain
it → suggest → Denmark
The first is the new restriction barring states or investors which are not members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), or NATO partners or European Union members from controlling, significantly influencing or accessing non-public information unless the parties are that the “activities of such states or investors would not constitute a threat to national security or public order.”
asserted
activities → bar → security
It states that the reasoning for this restriction is the “threat to national security and public order posed by increased efforts by adversaries to expand influence and control in Greenland.”
asserted
reasoning → state → Greenland
Which suggests that unless parties agree, Russia and China will not likely be able to establish a direct investment presence in Greenland.
uncertain
Russia → suggest → Greenland
Greenland is now directly involved in the agreement and the possibility of independence is explicitly recognized in its preamble.
asserted
possibility → involve → preamble
Indeed, no one was seriously talking about an independent Greenland at the time.
asserted
one → talk → time
The political circumstances have, therefore, changed considerably, even though the basic American military presence remains.
asserted
presence → change → ?
What has not changed is equally important.
asserted
changed → change → ?
Under the 1951 agreement, the U.S. already had extensive military rights in Greenland and were using them for some very sensitive missions.
asserted
U.S. → have → missions
American aircraft armed with nuclear weapons flew over and around Greenland during the Cold War.
asserted
aircraft → arm → War
We know this for certain because of the 1968 crash of a B-52 approximately eleven kilometres outside Thule, now Pituffik.
asserted
We → know → Thule
The aircraft was conducting an overflight associated with the base’s ballistic missile early warning system and was carrying four nuclear weapons.
asserted
aircraft → conduct → weapons
The incident demonstrated just how extensive the American military presence in Greenland already was under the 1951 agreement.
asserted
presence → demonstrate → agreement
The important point is that Trump has not really obtained something the United States did not already have.
asserted
States → obtain → something
The Americans have largely reaffirmed their existing security arrangements.
asserted
Americans → reaffirm → arrangements
What Trump’s actions have done is seriously damage American relations, specifically, trust with both Denmark and Greenland.
asserted
done → do → Denmark
That is a considerable political cost when the substantive military gains appear relatively limited.
asserted
gains → appear → ?
The Greenland agreement suggests that it may still be possible to reach a reasonable defence arrangement with the U.S. despite the noise, threats and belligerent posturing coming from Washington.
uncertain
it → suggest → Washington
Political relations may be extremely difficult, but practical defence co-operation remains possible when the strategic requirements are clear.
uncertain
requirements → remain → ?
The agreement is a reminder that the U.S. still has to work with its Arctic partners, despite the bellicose rhetoric coming from the White House.
asserted
U.S. → work → House
That matters because Canada is becoming more important to the defence of North America, not less.
asserted
Canada → matter → America
Canada has committed to working with the United States through the North American Aerospace Defense Command up until now and has previously indicated that it was interested in co-operating on the emerging Golden Dome missile-defence system.
asserted
it → commit → system
Yet the Trump administration’s actions have made co-operation much more difficult politically.
asserted
operation → make → ?
This is the central dilemma: the U.S. is becoming a more difficult partner at precisely the time when it will increasingly need Canada.
asserted
it → become → Canada
The American effort to improve missile defence capabilities in Greenland will reinforce that requirement.
asserted
effort → improve → requirement
Greenland provides an important position for missile warning and defence, but it cannot, by itself, provide the U.S. with what it needs to defend North America.
asserted
it → provide → America
Even as the U.S. expands capabilities in Greenland, Washington will inevitably have to look again to Canada.
asserted
Washington → expand → Canada
Canadian territory, sensors, communications, infrastructure and access to the Canadian Arctic will become increasingly important to any comprehensive continental missile defence system.
asserted
territory → become → system
The Greenland agreement therefore offers an important lesson for Ottawa.
asserted
agreement → offer → Ottawa
The Americans are going to need Canada.
asserted
Americans → go → Canada
The challenge for Ottawa will be to manage that relationship without allowing the ongoing political confrontation to undermine the practical defence co-operation that both countries have enjoyed up until now and still require.
asserted
countries → manage → that
The Greenland agreement demonstrates that such an arrangement is still possible.
asserted
arrangement → demonstrate → ?
It recognizes Greenland’s changing political circumstances while protecting long-standing American defence requirements.
asserted
It → recognize → requirements
As the U.S. strengthens its missile defence capabilities in Greenland, it will come back to Canada for many of the capabilities it will need to complete the defence of North America.
asserted
it → strengthen → America
Trump may have made that relationship much harder politically, but he has not changed the geography of the continent or the underlying strategic requirements of North American defence.
uncertain
he → make → defence
The Aporia
