Military power can destroy a regime’s missiles, command centers, and military infrastructure.
asserted
power → destroy → missiles
But a successful operation should not be mistaken for the achievement of its political objective.
asserted
operation → mistake → objective
A government that can still repress its people and isolate its opponents may survive heavy blows and rebuild its military capabilities.
uncertain
that → repress → capabilities
The question about Iran is not simply how much more pressure can be brought to bear on the regime.
asserted
pressure → bring → regime
The more important question is how to end the threat it poses for good.
asserted
it → end → good
Any answer that leaves out the Iranian people and their organized resistance is incomplete.
asserted
that → leave → people
Foreign powers should not choose Iran’s next rulers; they should help Iranians determine their own future.
asserted
Iranians → choose → future
It is a distinction between having tools and having a strategy.
asserted
It → have → strategy
Destroying a missile depot does not answer the question of how to prevent the next one from being built.
asserted
Destroying → destroy → one
That requires looking at the regime’s decision-making structure and the force capable of changing it from within.
asserted
That → require → it
The regime’s conduct reveals the importance of this internal front.
asserted
conduct → reveal → front
Amnesty International reported that since March 19, nine dissidents have been executed after unfair trials in a case involving alleged links to the principal opposition, the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran.
asserted
dissidents → report → Iran
Amnesty stressed that even as the country was being bombed, the authorities were using executions to eliminate dissent and intimidate the public.
asserted
authorities → stress → public
Executing a prisoner does not close a gap in air defenses.
asserted
Executing → execute → defenses
The strategic purpose of this repression is to prevent the regime’s weakness from becoming an opportunity for the people.
asserted
purpose → prevent → people
As long as the regime remains confident in its ability to suppress dissent, it may believe it can retain power by absorbing losses and buying time.
uncertain
it → remain → time
Internal resistance challenges that confidence.
asserted
resistance → challenge → confidence
Yet discontent alone cannot overcome an organized apparatus of repression.
asserted
discontent → overcome → repression
To endure and survive waves of arrests, protests need organization and a political vision.
asserted
protests → endure → organization
Organized resistance is not a substitute for the people; it is a means of translating their aspirations into political power.
asserted
it → translate → power
The MEK and its network of Resistance Units should be assessed on that basis: their ability to organize, sustain activity under pressure, and offer a political program, not through the image the regime constructs of its opponents.
asserted
regime → assess → opponents
They have carried out more than 80 operations against the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the paramilitary Basij in the past couple of months.
asserted
They → carry → months
Credible support for such a force can change the regime’s calculations.
asserted
support → change → calculations
If external pressure goes hand in hand with a greater capacity for independent action within Iranian society, time will no longer necessarily work in the regime’s favor.
asserted
time → go → favor
Those carrying out repression must also consider whether loyalty to the government protects their position or ties their future to a system that may not survive.
uncertain
that → carry → system
No strategy can guarantee when a regime will fall or surrender.
asserted
regime → guarantee → ?
But there is a fundamental difference between raising the costs it faces and threatening its survival.
asserted
it → be → survival
That support must have practical meaning: recognizing the people’s right to end dictatorship, engaging openly with the organized resistance, including the National Council of Resistance of Iran, and helping ensure unrestricted access to communications.
asserted
support → have → communications
Economic and diplomatic pressure should target the resources and officials of the apparatus of repression, rather than make ordinary people’s lives harder.
asserted
lives → target → repression
Efforts to halt executions and defend political prisoners must not be sacrificed in security negotiations.
asserted
Efforts → halt → negotiations
Iranians must not become proxies for foreign powers or temporary leverage for extracting concessions from Tehran.
asserted
Iranians → become → Tehran
The goal is democratic change brought about by Iranians themselves.
asserted
goal → bring → Iranians
Foreign support must strengthen the people’s independence and ability to act, not dictate political outcomes from abroad.
asserted
support → strengthen → outcomes
Nor is a return to the past, i.e., monarchical dictatorship, the answer to concerns about what follows change.
asserted
what → follow → change
Maryam Rajavi’s Ten-Point Plan offers a concrete framework, emphasizing popular sovereignty, political pluralism, the separation of religion and state, equality between women and men, abolition of the death penalty, and an Iran free of nuclear weapons.
asserted
Plan → offer → weapons
These commitments should provide a basis for accountability.
asserted
commitments → provide → accountability
The legitimacy of any future government can come only from the free choice of the Iranian people.
asserted
legitimacy → come → people
Military power can weaken the regime; Iran’s people and their resistance can end its rule.
asserted
people → weaken → rule
A strategy that ignores this force for change may strike the regime again and again without ever ending the threat it poses.
uncertain
it → ignore → threat
The Aporia
