Photo via New York Post

Bombshell poll shows LA mayoral candidate suddenly surging in key demographic — hours before pivotal head-to-head

Read the original at New York Post ↗
Cite

Paige, J. (2026, October 9). Bombshell poll shows LA mayoral candidate suddenly surging in key demographic — hours before pivotal head-to-head. New York Post. https://nypost.com/2026/10/08/us-news/nithya-raman-holds-24-point-lead-among-latino-voters-over-karen-bass-for-la-mayor-race/

Dated when The Aporia collected the article, usually within hours of publication. Check the original for its exact date and byline.

New York Post · collected 2026-10-09 · by Jamie Paige

Quick Summary

A recent poll from UC Berkeley/Los Angeles Times shows mayoral candidate Nithya Raman leading her opponent Karen Bass by 24 points among Latino voters in Los Angeles. Conducted September 15–20 and published October 2, the poll reveals Raman at 45% support versus Bass’s 21%, with 34% undecided. The race intensified this week as both candidates participated in a Univision debate on October 7, amidst growing tensions over policing policies and crime rates.
Written by AI on 2026-10-09, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

AI analysis

Story summary

A recent poll from the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies/Los Angeles Times shows mayoral candidate Nithya Raman leading her opponent Karen Bass among Latino voters by 45% to 21%, with 34% undecided. The survey was conducted between September 15 and 20, just weeks before the November 3 election. This poll comes as both candidates face off in a high-stakes televised forum on Hispanic issues hosted by Univision 34. The debate is set to take place at 7 p.m. Thursday night, amid escalating tensions over policing and public safety concerns in Los Angeles.

Written for “LA Mayoral Poll Surges” on 2026-11-01, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.

Story

📰 LA Mayoral Poll Surges
Politics · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

Compared with similar articles

This article reads leans right and hedges 8% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
New York Post
Hedges 2 of 24 claims Outlet record 66/100
“Article A describes a campaign forum where Bass and Raman debate, while Article B discusses a poll result that influences their upcoming televised showdown.”
New York Post
Hedges 2 of 16 claims Outlet record 66/100
“The articles describe different polls with conflicting results released at different times.”
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
24
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
8%
2 of 24 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
Leans right
of the writing, not the subject · beta estimate
Publisher signals
66/100
New York Post's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
1
Politics
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-10-09 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

New York Post · 15783 article(s) · 35 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 35 correction(s)

Who wrote this

Jamie Paige
31 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 But their anger with the mayor isn’t enough to make them turn toward socialist-backed candidate Nithya Raman.
🔮 Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass has admitted to making mistakes and is asking voters for another chance — outlining to The California Post her plan to boost police hiring and clean up street homelessness in the city.
🔮 Nithya Raman’s campaign is firing back at a political group trolling her homelessness record with fake real estate signs, a rundown RV and an AI phone line impersonating the mayoral hopeful.
🔮 Billionaire developer Rick Caruso is backing his former political rival, Mayor Karen Bass, just eight days before Election Day, blasting challenger Nithya Raman’s plans for the LAPD as “reckless and dangerous.”
🔮 But despite their misgivings, Californians appear set to hand Democrats another four years in charge.
🔮 With just 11 days before voters decide the fate of Measure FD, Councilwoman Traci Park and fellow councilmembers pressed Fire Chief Jaime Moore over how the department would spend the cash, fix fire stations and get more firefighters on the streets without wasting taxpayer dollars.
🔮 Nearly eight years later, he is still living in a cramped, 350-square-foot guesthouse that survived the blaze, unable to afford the estimated $2 million it would now cost to rebuild his home.
🔮 An LA nonprofit bankrolled with millions in taxpayer funds through mayoral candidate Nithya Raman’s eviction-defense program more than tripled its revenue in five years, even as reported housing and eviction-defense spending plunged, a California Post investigation found.
🔮 Nithya Raman was back in the hot seat Tuesday night over her pledge to fire LAPD Chief Jim McDonnell, refusing to say when she’d pull the trigger as a top ally of Mayor Karen Bass blasted her for misleading voters.
🔮 Pressed about Bass’ warning that firing McDonnell ahead of the LA 2028 Olympics could be disastrous, Raman suggested waiting until 2030.
Also by Jamie Paige
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 31 articles by Jamie Paige →

Topics

Berkeley LAPD Latino Los Angeles UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies

Subjects

Raman PERSON · 11× Bass PERSON · 10× Latino NORP · 7× Berkeley GPE · 4× Los Angeles GPE · 3× McDonnell PERSON · 3× Univision ORG · 3× Hispanic NORP · 2× LAPD ORG · 2× Los Angeles Times ORG · 2×

Narrative

The blistering attack came just hours before both candidates were scheduled to face questions from Hispanic voters during a special Univision 34 forum at 7 p.m. The escalating fight over policing comes as the Berkeley poll found crime and public safety ranked among the most pressing concerns for Los Angeles voters, alongside homelessness, affordable housing and city infrastructure.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-10-09
🔮 A bombshell poll showing LA mayoral challenger Nithya Raman with a stunning 24-point lead over Karen Bass among Latino voters will loom large as the rivals face off in a high-stakes televised showdown Thursday night.

Claims (24 extracted, 2 hedged)

A bombshell poll showing LA mayoral challenger Nithya Raman with a stunning 24-point lead over Karen Bass among Latino voters will loom large as the rivals face off in a high-stakes televised showdown Thursday night. asserted
rivals → show → showdown
The UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies/Los Angeles Times poll, conducted Sept. 15–20 and published Oct. 2, found Raman leading Bass 45% to 21% among Latino likely voters, with another 34% undecided just weeks before the Nov. 3 election. asserted
% → conduct → election
The political battle has intensified since voters were surveyed, with the candidates clashing over the LAPD, immigration enforcement and Raman’s judgment after she appeared in a since-deleted social media video featuring the words “Only you can stop fascist liars.” asserted
you → intensify → liars
Sign up for the California Morning Report newsletter The biggest news, opinion and culture shaping California right now. Thanks for signing up! asserted
Sign → sign → California
The feud erupted Thursday when Bass blasted Raman as “incredibly irresponsible” and questioned whether her challenger was ready to lead Los Angeles. asserted
challenger → erupt → Angeles
“It certainly showed that she is not ready for prime time,” Bass told The California Post during a news conference. asserted
Bass → show → conference
“I even question if she understands what fascism is or its place in history.” asserted
fascism → question → history
The blistering attack came just hours before both candidates were scheduled to face questions from Hispanic voters during a special Univision 34 forum at 7 p.m. The escalating fight over policing comes as the Berkeley poll found crime and public safety ranked among the most pressing concerns for Los Angeles voters, alongside homelessness, affordable housing and city infrastructure. asserted
crime → come → homelessness
The controversy has exposed a sharp divide over the future of the LAPD. asserted
controversy → expose → LAPD
Bass has defended Chief Jim McDonnell, whom she appointed in 2024, as Los Angeles has recorded significant declines in violent crime. asserted
Angeles → defend → crime
Raman has pledged to replace McDonnell if elected, arguing that his handling of federal immigration raids and the protests that followed has fallen short. asserted
that → pledge → raids
Download The California Post App, follow us on social, and subscribe to our newsletters The latest controversy erupted after a social media video featured Raman repeating the phrase “Only you can stop fascist liars” alongside content creator Ed Choi. asserted
you → download → Choi
The video showed images of Bass and McDonnell and a large red X over the police chief’s face, drawing outrage from the Los Angeles Police Protective League, which warned that the imagery could endanger him. uncertain
imagery → show → him
Raman’s campaign maintains that her remarks referred to ICE and the Trump administration, not McDonnell, and that the video’s creator added the controversial imagery after the interview. asserted
creator → maintain → interview
The campaign said it requested the video’s removal. asserted
it → say → removal
Meanwhile, the Berkeley poll revealed a striking generational divide among Latino voters. asserted
poll → reveal → voters
Among those ages 18 to 49, Raman held a commanding 60% to 9% lead over Bass. asserted
Raman → hold → Bass
But among Latino voters 50 and older, Bass led Raman 36% to 26%. asserted
Bass → lead → %
The numbers mark a sharp contrast with the June primary, when Bass carried 35 Latino-majority neighborhoods compared with just seven for Raman, according to a Los Angeles Times analysis of election results. uncertain
Bass → mark → results
Bass’ campaign has challenged the Berkeley poll’s methodology, pointing to its own August survey showing the mayor leading Raman by two points among Latino voters. asserted
mayor → challenge → voters
The Berkeley survey included 427 Latino respondents, with a six-point margin of error for that subgroup. asserted
survey → include → subgroup
Thursday’s Univision forum, “Los Latinos Preguntan: Los Candidatos Responden,” will feature separate 30-minute interviews with Bass and Raman rather than a traditional face-to-face debate. asserted
forum → feature → debate
Each candidate will answer questions from approximately 15 to 20 members of Los Angeles’ Hispanic community about public safety, homelessness, housing costs, jobs and the economy. asserted
candidate → answer → safety
Univision anchors Gabriela Tessier and Octavio Valdez will moderate the program, airing at 7 p.m. on Univision 34 and streaming nationally on ViX. asserted
Tessier → moderate → ViX.
💬Give feedback
🕘History 🎫Support