The UFC returns to APEX this weekend for just the second time in eight cards.
asserted
UFC → return → cards
With it having been a while since we’ve been in the warehouse that’s located in the middle of the desert, and we’ll have another 12 fights to enjoy and bet on.
Of the 12 fights, a whopping eight of them are projected to end inside distance.
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eight → locate → distance
Last week’s card saw 11 of 14 fights end via knockout or submission, so you’re seeing plenty of violence early in his fights these days.
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you → see → fights
Below we break down the best bets for UFC Vegas 122 as we bet on the entire card.
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we → break → card
Christian Leroy Duncan has won five straight, having defeated a lower level of competition compared to his opponent Brendan Allen.
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Duncan → win → opponent
Allen has fought the peak level at the division and has proved a lot of people wrong in his career.
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lot → fight → career
You’ll remember Allen was a massive underdog to Reiner De Ridder before thoroughly dominating him and winning late in that fight.
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Allen → remember → fight
Leroy Duncan is a sick athlete and loves to show off his explosive movements where he should be able to land power shots.
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he → love → shots
Though, he does waste some energy doing that, which concerns me in a five-round fight against Allen who has been there before.
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who → waste → Allen
Having said all of that, I think Leroy Duncan’s decision line of +500 is too high, considering I think this fight will be extremely competitive on the feet.
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fight → say → feet
If Leroy Duncan doesn’t throw too many spinning kicks, which I consider just tactically foolish against higher-level opponents.
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I → throw → opponents
I think he’s the side to target.
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he → think → ?
As a sort of hedge for his potential stupidity in that sense, I’ll target the fight to go the distance, and a smaller bet on Leroy Duncan to win by decision.
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I → target → decision
PREDICTION: Fight goes the distance (+138, FanDuel) | Leroy Duncan wins by decision (+500, BetMGM)
Matheus Camilo vs. Jai Herbert
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Duncan → go → Herbert
In the lightweight division, Matheus Camilo faces off with Jai Herbert.
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Camilo → face → Herbert
Herbert, 38, has done a good job in his career as a volume striker with some power, but also has poor durability on the offensive side.
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Herbert → do → side
Herbert infamously knocked down Ilia Topuria in a fight that wound up being against the former champion in the division.
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that → knock → division
Topuria would go on to brutally knock Herbert out in that 2022 fight, where we had no idea how high-level Topuria would become.
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Topuria → go → idea
If you want to back Herbert, you’re hoping he doesn’t get clipped by Damilo, who is fighting at Xtreme Couture, one of the highest-level MMA gyms out there.
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who → want → gyms
Coach Eric Nicksick is very high on Camilo; I’ll take the 25-year-old prospect in this spot and do it brutally.
Target Camilo to win by knockout here, as he has some serious power in his hands.
PREDICTION: Camilo by KO/TKO (+150, DraftKings)
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UFC Vegas 122 full card picks
Loopy Godinez vs. Ketlen Souza: Fight goes the distance (-275, BetMGM) for parlays
Andre Fili vs. Kai Kamaka III: Kamaka III ML (+135, Novig)
Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Otari Tanzilovi: Wellmaker by decision (+300, FanDuel)
Julius Walker vs. Gerald Meerschaert:
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Fight → take → Meerschaert
Francisco Prado vs. Ismael Bonfim: Prado wins and the fight starts round two (+110, DraftKings)
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fight → win → round
Niko Price vs. Leon Shahbazyan: Either fighter to win by KO/TKO in round 1 (+300, FanDuel)
Felipe Franco vs. Brendson Ribeiro: Under 1.5 rounds (-158, Polymarket)
Allen Frye Jr. vs. RJ Harris: Over 1.5 rounds (-110, Fanatics Sportsbook) | Fight goes the distance (+320, FanDuel)
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Fight → win → distance
Alice Pereira vs. Daria Zhelezniakova: Zhelezniakova by decision (+239, Kalshi)
Ernesta Kareckaite vs. Melissa Gatto: Kareckaite by decision (+158, Kalshi)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting.
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he → trust → betting
During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons.
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he → showcase → market
While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
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return → bet → 2022
The Aporia
