Britain may have been only peripherally involved in the bombing of Iran that Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu started, but in the past fortnight it has become clear that Tehran wants to pose a threat inside the UK in response.
uncertain
Tehran → involve → response
In the aftermath of the confused incident near RAF Fairford, western officials are weighing up whether to warn publicly that Iran now has US military targets in Europe on its mind, such as the air force base in Gloucestershire.
asserted
Iran → weigh → Gloucestershire
That could come even though there remains British scepticism about Iran’s capability to pull off a drone raid on a secure facility far from Tehran.
uncertain
That → come → Tehran
What is already accepted by MI5 is that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has sought to coordinate and promote the targeting of the Jewish community in the UK and Europe, starting from March with a string of arson attacks directed at synagogues and similar sites.
asserted
Corps → accept → synagogues
That is itself a significant step up from the regime’s longstanding campaign of assassination plots and threats against critics overseas, tasks the IRGC has traditionally hired criminal gangs to carry out.
asserted
IRGC → hire → gangs
Exactly what happened at RAF Fairford remains unclear, though Iran may have gained something from it for very little.
uncertain
Iran → happen → little
A week later, last Sunday, a worried US decided to withdraw the 12 B-1 bombers it had stationed there, with leaks to US media suggesting there was a fear of a Ukraine-style drone attack.
asserted
leaks → decide → attack
What is known is that five men from London drove up in three white vans shortly after midnight on 27 September, one of whom called 999 as they did so.
asserted
they → know → 999
All five were arrested in Whelford, a village next to the airbase, only to be released on police bail a day later when no explosives were found or discernible plot discovered.
asserted
plot → arrest → bail
Two more men have been arrested on suspicion of terror offences, and released on police bail.
asserted
men → arrest → bail
Andy Burnham, the prime minister, has said there were “strong indications” Iran played a part, and on Thursday the Met police chief, Mark Rowley, said “you will see more progress on this investigation”.
asserted
you → say → investigation
RAF Fairford is an exposed site, with plane spotters easily able to get up close enough to photograph and track the forward-deployed US B-1 and B-52 bombers, which with permission from the former prime minister Keir Starmer were taking off to make attack runs into Iran in the spring and early summer.
asserted
which → expose → spring
“Iran has a track record of planning and carrying out attacks especially on opponents of the regime in the UK.
asserted
Iran → have → UK
Given the use of Fairford by US bombers, it’s only prudent to assume that they would see an interest in attacking a wider range of targets, whatever their involvement in the Fairford incident,” said Lord Ricketts, a former UK national security adviser.
asserted
Ricketts → give → incident
Dr Antonio Giustozzi, a terrorism specialist with the Royal United Services Institute, suggests the drive to the village was “a feint” where individuals, who may have been unwitting, were sent “to hint at what could happen”.
uncertain
what → suggest → village
But he is sceptical that Iran could pose a real military threat to Fairford or elsewhere.
uncertain
Iran → pose → Fairford
As for attacking Fairford, piloting first-person view drones of the type used in Ukraine is a skill requiring several days if not weeks of training, while an operation on an airbase would probably take months to prepare.
asserted
operation → attack → months
“I doubt that Iran could bring in military-grade explosive to the UK; the last people to do so were the IRA,” Giustozzi said.
uncertain
Giustozzi → doubt → UK
A genuine attack on RAF Fairford or similar would almost certainly be a one-way mission ending in capture or even death, which it would be it hard to recruit for.
asserted
it → end → which
But despite the low risks, the US chose to withdraw the B-1 bombers, which cost $300m (£225m) each, as a precautionary move.
asserted
which → choose → move
It was “an operational decision to reduce the risk”, Rich Knighton, the head of the UK armed forces, said on Thursday.
asserted
Knighton → reduce → Thursday
This week, a US congressional research report counted that 81 US military planes, helicopters or drones had been destroyed or damaged in the Iran war, including several struck on the ground at bases in Saudi Arabia and Jordan, a reminder that Iran fought back more effectively than the US acknowledged.
asserted
US → count → Arabia
The value of lost aircraft and air defence systems is estimated at $1.9bn and $3.3bn respectively.
asserted
value → lose → respectively
Meanwhile, Trump, desperate to lower oil prices, has set back any future attack on Iran until after the US midterm elections in early November.
asserted
Trump → lower → November
But regardless of other justifications for the US withdrawal from RAF Fairford, and the police investigation – which has yet to lead to any charges – the wider Iran threat in the UK is now elevated.
asserted
threat → have → UK
A week ago, two Iranian nationals, Salam Ahmadyan from Liverpool and Rahman Salehi from Salford, were charged with terror offences, accused of trying to target the Jewish community in Manchester with a homemade chlorine powder bomb.
asserted
nationals → charge → bomb
Prosecutors told a magistrates court on Saturday the pair were in contact with a third party, believed to be in Iran, who directed them and sent them “instructions on how to prepare an explosive device”.
asserted
who → tell → device
A trial at the Old Bailey has been scheduled.
asserted
trial → schedule → Bailey
Early in May, the US indicted Mohammad Baqer Saad Dawood al-Saadi, 32, an Iranian-Iraqi dual national, accusing him of promoting and coordinating 18 arson and other low-level terror attacks against Jewish and US sites in the UK and Europe during March and April 2026.
uncertain
US → indict → March
He was, the US authorities said, a commander with Kata’ib Hezbollah, an Iraqi group long backed by the IRGC.
asserted
authorities → say → IRGC
The following month, in a Manhattan courtroom, al-Saadi pleaded not guilty and said he was “a prisoner of war”.
asserted
he → plead → war
He faces a terrorism trial, accused in one instance of participating in an arson attack on a synagogue in London via a FaceTime video call.
asserted
He → face → call
Though nobody was killed in the campaign, al-Saadi is accused of telling an associate that he was engaged in “psychological warfare”.
asserted
he → kill → warfare
The group al-Saadi is accused of running, Harakat Ashab al-Yamin al-Islamia (HAYI), also claimed credit for the firebombing of four Jewish community ambulances in north London in postings on social media.
asserted
Saadi → accuse → media
Four people pleaded guilty to arson in the case in August, in an attack that caused an estimated £1m of damage.
asserted
that → plead → damage
Jonathan Hackett, a former US marine and intelligence specialist, says the threat in the UK and Europe will endure because Tehran believes it serves a purpose, though it will alter depending on who becomes responsible after al-Saadi.
asserted
who → say → Saadi
“The psychological effects alone are certainly important; the goal is to create a wedge between the US and its allies,” he added.
asserted
he → create → US
The Aporia
