Donald Trump’s deal with Vladimir Putin to temporarily lift sanctions on US imports of Russian diesel will have little “meaningful” impact for motorists and businesses in the US and overseas, energy and foreign policy analysts have predicted.
asserted
analysts → lift → US
The US president infuriated the Ukraine president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, as he took to his Truth Social network on Friday, saying the agreement with his Russia counterpart to supply millions of tonnes of diesel was essential to reduce fuel prices in the US, which have soared after his decision to go to war against Iran.
asserted
which → infuriate → Iran
The package announced by Trump involves 300,000 tonnes of diesel immediately “to the American and global marketplace” followed by 500,000 tonnes in November and a further 1m tonnes after that.
asserted
package → announce → that
That 300,000 figure equates to about three-quarters of what the country would use in a day, according to calculations using figures from the US Energy Information Administration.
uncertain
country → equate → Administration
“Diesel prices for Americans and, indeed, the world, will be COMING DOWN, IN RECORD NUMBERS, AND FAST!
asserted
prices → come → NUMBERS
Lower prices for Americans, especially our Great Farmers, Ranchers, and Truckers, is my greatest priority,” Trump posted.
asserted
Trump → post → Americans
However, experts suggested that the quantities involved – and the time it will take for the supplies to arrive in the US – is “too little, too late” to affect current high diesel prices, which observers have linked to challenging Republican party polling numbers before next month’s midterm elections.
uncertain
observers → suggest → elections
US prices have surged by almost 70% since the start of the Iran war, to about $6.30 a gallon, according to American Automobile Association.
uncertain
prices → surge → Association
In the UK, the average price of diesel climbed to a record £2 a litre earlier in October, and sat just below that mark on Friday.
asserted
price → climb → Friday
Ashley Kelty, an energy analyst with the investment bank Panmure Liberum, said: “It is not going to have any impact on prices.
asserted
It → say → prices
The first amount [due to be shipped to the US] is so small.
asserted
amount → ship → US
“They are going to have to charter vessels, load them and transport the cargo to the US.
asserted
They → go → US
That will take about three weeks – so we are pretty much at the end of the month and about a week before the midterms.
asserted
we → take → midterms
The US Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent said on Sunday: “This is good for the American people … bringing these diesel prices down.”
However, Kelty added that the diesel shipments will also cause complications in a global supply chain, including multinational companies having to work out which of its supplies originated from Russia and therefore might breach sanctions in other jurisdictions, including Europe.
uncertain
which → say → Europe
The US Treasury suspended sanctions on Russian diesel exports until 7 April as part of the deal, while keeping in place other sanctions on Russian products.
asserted
Treasury → suspend → products
Zelenskyy described Trump’s deal as a “weak decision”, saying it would encourage Russia to keep attacking Ukraine, but Trump then blamed Kyiv’s strikes on Russian energy infrastructure for rising fuel prices.
asserted
Trump → describe → prices
Trump said Ukraine needs “a new leader”.
asserted
Ukraine → say → leader
On Sunday, Zelenskyy said he would be ready to stop hitting Russian oil refineries if Russia curbed its attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
asserted
Russia → say → infrastructure
Trump later posted on Truth Social: “Effective immediately, there is an ENERGY CEASEFIRE in the War between Russia and Ukraine.
asserted
Trump → post → Russia
Both parties have agreed.
asserted
parties → agree → ?
Maximilian Hess, founder of the political risk consultancy Enmetena Advisory and a fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, added: “It will not have any meaningful domestic US effect or international effect given its full terms are highly unlikely to be met as a result of the impact of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refining which have limited its diesel output.
“The whole point of the deal for Putin is that it fails, which he can blame on Ukraine and thus stoke tensions between Trump and Zelenskyy.
asserted
he → add → Trump
Indeed, it’s already working!”
asserted
it → work → ?
The Aporia
