But it is highly unlikely to submit to a ceasefire on punitive terms.
asserted
it → submit → terms
And Donald Trump is in no position to force it to accept such a deal.
asserted
Trump → force → deal
The US president desperately wants a ceasefire before Americans cast their votes at the midterm elections on November 3, given he has blamed the European war for pushing up the cost of diesel.
asserted
he → want → diesel
He even claims to have an energy truce agreement from both sides.
uncertain
He → claim → sides
As usual with this president, he is announcing a deal in the hope it happens.
asserted
it → announce → hope
It is unlikely to work.
asserted
It → work → ?
Instead, it is more likely to confirm Trump as the president of pretence.
asserted
it → confirm → pretence
For a ceasefire to matter, it needs to stick.
asserted
it → matter → ?
Unfortunately, Russian President Vladimir Putin shows no sign of accepting an outcome that means halting his attacks on Ukrainian civilians.
asserted
that → show → civilians
His recent decisions have increased casualties with deadlier strikes.
asserted
decisions → increase → strikes
More than 150 people were killed and 700 injured by Russian drones, glide bombs and missiles over the past week, so there is a desperate need to stop the war.
asserted
700 → kill → war
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky says he is open to a truce.
asserted
he → say → truce
Putin chooses instead to intensify the war.
asserted
Putin → choose → war
The instant proof of this was the fact that Russian attacks continued in the hours after Trump proclaimed an immediate energy ceasefire.
asserted
Trump → continue → ceasefire
One of the strikes, according to Ukrainian reports, was on a thermal power station.
uncertain
One → accord → station
In his actions, however, he is consistent in favouring Putin.
asserted
he → favour → Putin
The US has continued some of the funding for Ukraine that was committed under the previous president, Joe Biden.
asserted
that → continue → president
It has also kept shipping some weapons to Ukraine.
asserted
It → keep → Ukraine
(Biden also placed limits on what Ukraine could do with weapons).
uncertain
Ukraine → place → weapons
Trump, however, has scaled back practical help on every level.
asserted
Trump → scale → level
While some American weapons are still sent to Ukraine, this happens because European nations pay for them.
asserted
nations → send → them
And the missiles Ukraine needs most, the Patriot interceptors that can shoot down Russian missiles, are being withheld.
asserted
that → need → missiles
On another front, Trump and his tech ally, Elon Musk, have turned down Ukrainian requests to use the Starlink satellite network for strikes inside Russia.
asserted
Trump → turn → Russia
The overall impact is to limit Ukraine’s capacity to go on the offensive to stop Russian attacks on civilian targets.
asserted
impact → limit → targets
There are times when Trump seems to offer support, but wavers before anything concrete happens – such as the idea of allowing Ukraine to make its own Patriot interceptors.
asserted
Ukraine → be → interceptors
He likes having leverage over Zelensky by holding out the promise of help.
asserted
He → like → help
At the most basic level, however, Trump has always talked as if the war could be ended by giving Putin what he wants.
uncertain
he → talk → what
In this scenario, Putin would take formal control of the Donbas region and gain some additional territory in the “fortress belt” in the east.
asserted
Putin → take → east
This would leave Ukraine vulnerable to future Russian attacks without NATO membership, or a robust security guarantee, as a protection.
asserted
This → leave → protection
It would leave a weakened Ukraine to be dominated by the Kremlin, as it was before the disintegration of the Soviet Union.
asserted
it → leave → Union
Trump kept to his pattern with his latest move.
asserted
Trump → keep → move
He announced a deal with Putin that he said would allow Russian diesel to flow into world markets and lower prices for American motorists.
asserted
diesel → announce → motorists
This helps Moscow generate more revenue to pay for its war.
asserted
Moscow → help → war
The deal will make little difference to American consumers: in theory, it releases 800,000 tons of diesel (about 725,000 tonnes) in October and November, with more to come later.
asserted
it → make → October
This is enough to meet just two days’ worth of demand over those two months, given the US transport sector uses about 436,000 tons of diesel every day.
asserted
sector → meet → diesel
For Trump, it is all about selling the (false) hope that he can cut the cost of fuel.
asserted
he → sell → fuel
That cost, of course, has soared due to his war with Iran.
asserted
cost → soar → Iran
Worried about the midterms, he has betrayed Kyiv for a paltry amount of oil.
asserted
he → betray → oil
European leaders have backed Zelensky with public comments over the past few days, but none have gone after Trump personally for doing a deal with Putin.
asserted
none → back → Putin
They avoid a public brawl, even when Trump is proving (again) that NATO allies cannot trust him.
asserted
allies → avoid → him
…and 18 more, not listed.
The Aporia
