The White House wants Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy gone.
asserted
Zelenskyy → want → ?
“I think it’s time for Ukraine to get a new president,” United States President Donald Trump told reporters on Saturday, claiming that Zelenskyy’s months-long strikes on Russian refineries had hurt global diesel supplies.
asserted
strikes → think → supplies
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Russia → call → Trump
4Ukraine’s Zelenskyy accuses Russia of violating Trump’s ‘energy ceasefire’
But Trump’s wish is not Ukraine’s command.
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wish → accuse → ceasefire
Even though Zelenskyy’s five-year presidential term expired in 2024, Ukraine’s constitution and martial law grant him a wartime extension.
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constitution → expire → extension
Many Ukrainians want their political establishment to be renewed, but are reluctant to see a presidential vote before the four-and-a-half year war is over.
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war → want → vote
In response to Trump’s remarks, Zelenskyy proposed holding a vote if Russian President Vladimir Putin guaranteed a 60-day ceasefire.
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Putin → propose → ceasefire
However, if the elections are held in the near future, who could compete with Zelenskyy?
uncertain
who → hold → Zelenskyy
“If the elections are held fast, one of the former military [commanders] is Zelenskyy’s most probable rival,” Kyiv-based analyst Igar Tyshkevych told Al Jazeera.
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Tyshkevych → hold → Jazeera
Meanwhile, old political heavyweights such as former President Viktor Poroshenko, who lost the 2019 presidential vote to Zelenskyy, and former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, who is being investigated for corruption, do not stand a chance, he said.
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he → lose → chance
Valerii Zaluzhnyi: ‘Most probable alternative’
Ukraine’s former top general and current ambassador to the United Kingdom tops the lists of Zelenskyy’s rivals.
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general → top → rivals
“At least since 2023, and especially since 2024, after his resignation, the most probable alternative to Zelenskyy, his most dangerous competitor who can defeat him in the election is Valerii Zaluzhnyi,” Volodymyr Fesenko, head of the Kyiv-based Penta think tank, told Al Jazeera.
asserted
Fesenko → defeat → Jazeera
Almost two-thirds of Ukrainians – 64 percent – trust him, according to an October 8 poll by the Rating Group, a Kyiv-based pollster, and only 25 percent “distrust” him.
uncertain
percent → trust → him
This trust is rooted in his 2022 military triumphs.
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trust → root → triumphs
After defending Kyiv in the early weeks of Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion, Zaluzhnyi led counteroffensives that returned 40 percent of Russian-controlled territory to Ukraine.
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that → defend → Ukraine
He was fired in 2023 after a long-anticipated summer counteroffensive yielded no results.
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counteroffensive → fire → results
Zaluzhnyi remains a man of mystery when it comes to the most pressing postwar matters.
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it → remain → matters
Burly and imposing, the 53-year-old is deliberately taciturn, leaving the public guessing about his views on Ukraine’s economic restoration, crippling demographic crisis or push to join the European Union.
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old → leave → Union
He does not take part in talk shows, barely talks to journalists and occasionally publishes opinion pieces with detailed analyses of war-related problems and general statements about securing lasting peace and security guarantees from Ukraine’s Western partners.
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He → take → partners
The former comedian was elected in 2019 with 73 percent of the vote, the highest result in Ukraine’s post-Soviet history.
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comedian → elect → history
Despite a string of corruption scandals in his inner circle, the 48-year-old is popular enough to take another swing at a presidency.
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old → take → presidency
More than half of Ukrainians – 53 percent – trust him, although 40 percent do not, according to the Rating Group’s poll.
uncertain
percent → trust → poll
However, Trump’s renewed animosity may benefit Zelenskyy again.
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animosity → renew → Zelenskyy
After his February 2025 row with Trump in the Oval Office, Zelenskyy’s approval ratings hit a wartime high of 67 percent.
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ratings → hit → percent
However, Zelenskyy may have ruined his own chances with his appointment policies.
“He came to power under the slogans of resetting the power, of picking the most competent, not the most trusted” ministers or advisers, analyst Tyshkevych said.
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Tyshkevych → ruin → ministers
Trusted by more than half of Ukrainians
Lt. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov is the second most popular and charismatic military leader who has a shot at becoming Ukraine’s president.
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who → trust → shot
The 40-year-old former top military intelligence officer was appointed head of Zelenskyy’s administration in January.
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officer → appoint → January
Budanov led daring operations against Russia, including a raid on Russian-annexed Crimea in 2016 to plant explosives at a military airfield.
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Budanov → lead → airfield
In 2020, Zelenskyy appointed him head of the defence ministry’s intelligence directorate (GUR), which became an aggressive, tech-driven special forces service.
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which → appoint → directorate
The GUR’s sea drone attacks damaged Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, forcing it to retreat from annexed Crimea to the Russian port of Novorossiysk.
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attacks → damage → Novorossiysk
Budanov is trusted by 53 percent of Ukrainians and mistrusted by 31 percent, according to the Rating Group’s poll.
uncertain
Budanov → trust → poll
He rose to fame after Zelenskyy appointed him minister of digital transformation in 2019, and managed to radically simplify bureaucratic procedures in the corruption-plagued nation.
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Zelenskyy → rise → nation
His ministry launched Diia, a smartphone app that lets users access more than 100 government services online.
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users → launch → services
In January, Zelenskyy appointed Fedorov, who had zero military background, as defence minister in charge of logistics, budgets, reforms, anticorruption measures and deals to secure multibillion-dollar Western aid or loans.
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who → appoint → aid
Fedorov cracked down on corruption schemes by making procurement of new weaponry, food and medical supplies more transparent.
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procurement → crack → weaponry
He radically boosted the number of drones that paralysed Russia’s supply routes, destroyed arms and fuel depots, oil refineries and air defence systems.
He also increased the number of ground robots to supply food and ammunition and rescue wounded soldiers.
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He → boost → soldiers
But the reforms angered Oleksandr Syrsky, the actual commander-in-chief, who reportedly pushed for Fedorov’s dismissal in July.
uncertain
who → anger → July
Fedorov’s supporters rallied throughout Ukraine for weeks, while his approval ratings soared from 35 percent in June to 65 percent in July, according to the Rating Group’s polls.
However, in August he made an unpopular move saying Ukraine should hold a presidential vote, and his current approval stands at 38 percent.
uncertain
approval → rally → percent
Yevhenii Khmara: Ukraine’s unknown defence minister
The top five list ends with Yevhenii Khmara, a general who replaced Fedorov as defence minister.
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who → end → minister
A relative unknown until his appointment in July, he is trusted by 29 percent of Ukrainians and distrusted by 16 percent.
He was a career intelligence official with a low public profile, but another 43 percent of those polled did not know who he was, according to the survey.
Low hopes for a foreign minister and an ex-president
Numbers six and seven on the list are Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha, a career diplomat who secured crucial support from Turkiye and Poland, and ex-president Poroshenko.
Both are trusted by 24 percent of Ukrainians.
uncertain
Both → trust → Ukrainians
…and 1 more, not listed.
The Aporia
