Iranian authorities have signalled they intend to disrupt an Arab-operated and United States-assisted shuttle system that has enabled more energy exports through the Strait of Hormuz during the US-Israel war on Iran.
asserted
that → signal → Iran
With the US naval blockade of Iran’s southern ports in place and sanctions tightening, Tehran has said it will pursue military and diplomatic efforts to put pressure on Washington to submit to its demands regarding reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
asserted
it → tighten → Hormuz
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exports → take → bpd
This strategic waterway, through which roughly a fifth of global oil and gas flowed before the war, has been largely closed to shipping following Iranian attacks since the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran on February 28.
But the US Navy has reportedly opened up a route so Gulf states can export oil and other commodities amid an energy crisis.
Iran’s security chief Mohsen Rezaei responded on Sunday night, saying the shuttle system is now an explicit target for Tehran.
uncertain
system → flow → Tehran
Rezaei claimed that the US Central Command, with the assistance of the United Arab Emirates military, was using smaller vessels to transfer oil to larger tankers.
asserted
Command → claim → tankers
He claimed Iran had been striking five or six participating vessels nightly for weeks.
asserted
Iran → claim → weeks
“You are smuggling, but the strait is under Iran’s control, and we manage it,” he asserted.
asserted
he → smuggle → it
This appeared to be a taunt aimed at US President Donald Trump, who has hailed energy exports at times reaching pre-war levels over recent weeks.
asserted
who → appear → weeks
Rezaei appeared to give the impression that Iran wants to have lasting authority over Hormuz, and promised a harsh response if Iran’s energy and civilian infrastructure were attacked again.
asserted
infrastructure → appear → response
His threats appeared aimed at Arab regional states, with a warning that digital infrastructure could be targeted.
uncertain
infrastructure → appear → warning
Rezaei threatened US-linked cables, data centres and artificial intelligence facilities in the UAE and around the Strait of Hormuz.
asserted
Rezaei → threaten → Hormuz
Rezaei also accused Saudi Arabia of helping the US move oil around Iran’s restrictions.
asserted
US → accuse → restrictions
But he did not threaten a direct attack against Riyadh – which is currently being targeted by Yemen’s Tehran-aligned Houthis.
asserted
which → threaten → Houthis
In early September, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) threatened tankers at ports and anchorages in Kuwait and Bahrain, citing US attacks on Iranian tankers.
asserted
Corps → threaten → tankers
It accused both countries of complicity through hosting US armed forces.
asserted
It → accuse → forces
Iran has claimed the US accepted some of Tehran’s seven conditions for the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and ending the war.
asserted
US → claim → war
But Tehran insists that a deal will only materialise when all its demands are met.
asserted
demands → insist → ?
Hamidreza Azizi, a senior Iran analyst at the Crisis Group, said this reflects Tehran’s apparent assessment that it is under no immediate pressure to reach an agreement with the US since its pressure in the Hormuz has a global impact.
asserted
pressure → say → impact
“The question, however, is whether Tehran is overestimating its ability to sustain this pressure, given the growing economic costs of the confrontation for Iran itself,” Azizi wrote on X.
Transfer system
The system involves very large crude carriers (VLCCs) and smaller vessels coordinating with the US military to load crude oil at Arab ports and use southern corridors near the coast of Oman to exit the strait.
asserted
system → overestimate → strait
Vessels often switch off their transponders and travel at night to minimise the risk of being targeted by the Iranians.
asserted
Vessels → switch → Iranians
After ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman, some of the shuttles come back to load more.
asserted
some → come → more
Multiple vessels were targeted overnight Sunday to Monday, including two outbound tankers and one in anchorage near Oman’s port city of Sohar, where ship-to-ship transfers are allegedly being conducted.
uncertain
transfers → target → ship
Other vessels were targeted by projectiles last week, indicating that attacks have extended beyond the Strait of Hormuz to target the shuttle system.
The IRGC has also increasingly driven a narrative that naval mines, believed to have been planted across the Strait of Hormuz since the start of the war, pose a serious threat to vessels attempting to navigate the waterway without coordinating with Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority.
asserted
mines → target → Authority
The IRGC said three tankers suffered major damage over the weekend after being struck by mines.
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tankers → say → mines
It also released footage of one ship ablaze that is said to have been struck by a mine, although the footage did not appear to show a mine going off.
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mine → release → mine
The shuttle system has provided Arab national oil companies with a way out of Hormuz via the southern corridor near Oman.
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system → provide → Oman
Michelle Wiese Bockmann, a London-based senior maritime intelligence analyst at Windward, said this system has proven highly effective.
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system → base → Windward
“Under international maritime law, which underpins 11 billion tonnes of seaborne trade annually, vessels have what’s called the right of transit passage,” Bockmann told Al Jazeera.
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Bockmann → underpin → Jazeera
“So, what Oman has done is allow vessels to go through under international maritime law, but they have had US military assistance.”
asserted
they → do → assistance
Tehran says shipping will be disrupted so long as the US continues its choking naval blockade against Iran, which has also stepped up its efforts to counter efforts by Arab states to export oil.
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which → say → oil
At least 15 ships are believed to have been targeted in October so far, according to Winward.
uncertain
ships → believe → Winward
“The more effective the route has become in facilitating the transport of oil and gas, the less leverage Iran has over Hormuz, and more attacks we are seeing on vessels that are using that southern corridor,” Bockmann said.
Windward’s data shows 31 ships transited the Strait of Hormuz daily in the final week of September.
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ships → become → September
Eighty-seven percent of the 45 ships targeted by Iran during the third quarter of 2026 were tankers.
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percent → target → 2026
Around 47 percent belonged to Gulf Arab energy companies’ national shipping fleets, Windward noted, and 93 percent of the strikes took place in the Strait of Hormuz.
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percent → belong → Hormuz
Most attacks targeted vessels transiting the southern corridor with their transponders turned off.
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transponders → target → corridor
These attacks have contributed to a massive increase in freight costs.
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attacks → contribute → costs
Freight represented 25-30 percent of Gulf crude’s cost, versus just 1 to 3 percent before the war, according to Windward.
uncertain
Freight → represent → Windward
National oil companies have resorted to offering discounts of up to $35 per barrel below official selling prices.
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companies → resort → prices
The main reason for the rise is a shortage of tankers willing to make the dangerous crossing.
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reason → make → crossing
Between 15 and 20 percent of very large crude carriers (VLCCs) are tied up with an inefficient logistics system that relies on shuttle transfers, complicated by escalating attacks and exposure at loading ports and anchorages.
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that → tie → ports
…and 1 more, not listed.
The Aporia
