America’s housing affordability crisis could drag on for at least another five years — and for New Yorkers, the wait could stretch well beyond a decade.
uncertain
wait → drag → decade
Housing costs nationwide could return to their 2018 levels relative to household income by 2031, according to a new Redfin analysis — but buyers in New York City, Long Island and roughly half of the major metropolitan areas studied could face another decade of financial pain.
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buyers → return → pain
That optimistic national scenario assumes mortgage rates fall to 6% while annual home-price growth holds steady at 2.1%.
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growth → assume → %
If rates remain around 7.5% but home prices stop rising, affordability could recover by April 2032 instead.
And in an even rosier — though unlikely — scenario, where rates drop to 6% and prices flatten, housing costs could return to their pre-pandemic benchmark by February 2029.
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costs → remain → February
But the picture is considerably bleaker in the Northeast and Midwest, where stubbornly rising home prices continue to outpace wage growth.
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prices → rise → growth
Long Island is feeling the squeeze particularly hard.
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Island → feel → squeeze
Nassau County, ranked the nation’s strongest seller’s market by Redfin, has seen home prices climb 5.3% over the past year, outpacing projected annual income growth of 3.6%.
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prices → rank → %
That’s a 1.7-percentage-point gap between home-price appreciation and expected income gains, leaving prospective buyers struggling to keep up in an already fiercely competitive market — even if mortgage rates fall to 6%.
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rates → ’ → %
That imbalance means affordability could take at least 10 years to return to 2018 levels, even if mortgage rates fall to 6%.
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rates → mean → %
New York City, Newark, New Brunswick and Philadelphia face similarly lengthy recoveries, along with Chicago, Boston and several other major markets.
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City → face → Chicago
Chicago home prices, for example, have surged 5.5% year over year, compared with projected annual income growth of 3.9%.
“It may seem counterintuitive that housing costs could return to normal sooner in the country’s most expensive markets than in a place like Chicago or Philly, but it comes down to the direction of home prices and incomes,” Redfin senior economist Asad Khan said in the company’s published analysis.
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Khan → surge → analysis
Redfin defines “normal” as a return to August 2018, when the typical American homebuyer needed to spend about 30% of household income on monthly housing payments, including mortgage principal and interest, property taxes and insurance, assuming a 20% down payment.
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homebuyer → define → payment
“But in many Midwest and East Coast markets, home prices are still climbing faster than incomes — so even if rates were to drop meaningfully, a buyer’s monthly payment wouldn’t return to something that feels normal anytime soon,” he added in the report.
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he → climb → report
Ironically, some of America’s notoriously expensive West Coast markets could recover much faster.
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some → recover → markets
San Jose, California, is closest to returning to its 2018 affordability levels, thanks to a 3.2% annual decline in home prices and projected wage growth of 6.5%.
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Jose → return → %
Under a scenario with mortgage rates at 7.5%, San Jose could return to its previous benchmark by October 2027.
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Jose → return → October
Austin, Texas, could follow in February 2028, while Oakland could reach that point by April 2028.
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Oakland → follow → April
Seattle and Portland are also among the markets positioned for relatively quick recoveries.
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Seattle → position → recoveries
San Francisco presents an unusual case.
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Francisco → present → case
Its housing costs briefly returned to 2018 levels when mortgage rates were around 7.25% in September, but soaring home prices — up 9.7% annually amid an AI-fueled wealth boom — threaten to push affordability further out of reach.
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prices → return → reach
At 7.5% mortgage rates, San Francisco could face another decade before costs normalize.
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costs → face → decade
Crucially, that doesn’t mean homes would suddenly become cheap.
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homes → mean → ?
In expensive markets such as San Jose and San Francisco, returning to 2018 affordability levels could still leave homeownership beyond the reach of many residents.
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returning → return → residents
The analysis examined 46 major metropolitan areas and modeled different combinations of mortgage rates, home-price growth and projected income gains.
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analysis → examine → rates
And while the scenarios offer some hope for frustrated house hunters, they are hypothetical projections rather than forecasts of what will actually happen.
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what → offer → hunters
“Many house hunters feel stuck between two bad options: Stretch themselves to buy at today’s rates, or wait for lower rates only to see prices climb further out of reach,” Khan said in the published report.
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Khan → feel → report
The Aporia
