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One Nation steadies within striking range of lagging Queensland Labor

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Dennien, M. (2026, October 13). One Nation steadies within striking range of lagging Queensland Labor. The Sydney Morning Herald. https://www.smh.com.au/politics/queensland/one-nation-steadies-within-striking-range-of-lagging-queensland-labor-20261013-p614v1.html?ref=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_source=rss_feed

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The Sydney Morning Herald · collected 2026-10-13 · by Matt Dennien

Quick Summary

A recent Resolve Political Monitor shows that One Nation's support in Queensland has increased slightly to 21%, putting it within striking distance of Labor, whose support remains at 24%. Premier David Crisafulli’s Liberal National Party (LNP) still leads with 32% of the primary vote. The survey, conducted between September 1 and October 10 with a sample size of 868 registered voters, indicates that while minor parties are gaining ground, Crisafulli remains the preferred premier with 41% support compared to Steven Miles' 24%.
Written by AI on 2026-10-13, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

AI analysis

Story summary

One Nation’s support has steadied in Queensland, coming close to Labor, which is lagging behind. The latest Resolve Political Monitor shows that while the Crisafulli LNP remains the frontrunner with a primary vote of 32%, One Nation's share increased from 20% to 21%. This rise puts One Nation within striking distance of Labor, which has been struggling at around 24%, its peak earlier in the year. The survey also indicates that Premier David Crisafulli leads Opposition Leader Steven Miles in personal ratings. With state elections scheduled for late October 2028, this snapshot marks two years since the LNP's return to power after a long absence.

Written for “Australian Politics” on 2026-11-02, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.

Story

📰 Australian Politics
Politics · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

Compared with similar articles

This article reads unscored and hedges 0% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
Daily Mail
Hedges 0 of 25 claims Outlet record 68/100
“The articles describe polling data for different regions and contexts (national vs Queensland state level), indicating distinct but related events.”
The Sydney Morning Herald
Hedges 0 of 17 claims Outlet record 61/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of political developments in NSW and Queensland without describing the same specific incident.”
The Sydney Morning Herald
⚖️ Leans right Hedges 1 of 29 claims Outlet record 61/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of political support and ratings for various parties over different time periods and contexts.”
The Sydney Morning Herald
Hedges 2 of 24 claims Outlet record 61/100
“The articles discuss different aspects and timeframes related to political support for various parties, but do not describe the same specific incident or occurrence.”
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
21
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
0%
0 of 21 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
not political
takes no side on a contested political question
Publisher signals
61/100
The Sydney Morning Herald's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
1
Politics
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-10-13 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

The Sydney Morning Herald · 5766 article(s) · 15 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 15 correction(s)

Who wrote this

Matt Dennien
26 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
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Also by Matt Dennien
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
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Topics

LNP Labor One Nation One Nation’s Queensland

Subjects

Crisafulli ORG · 6× Queensland GPE · 5× Labor ORG · 3× Miles PERSON · 3× One Nation’s ORG · 3× Hanson PERSON · 2× LNP ORG · 2× One Nation ORG · 2× David Crisafulli PERSON · 1× Resolve Political Monitor ORG · 1×

Narrative

One Nation’s support at a state level in Queensland has steadied to be within striking distance of a lagging Labor, as minor parties take a further bite from major counterparts at the election cycle’s halfway mark.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-10-13
🔮 The next state election will be held in late October 2028.
2026-10-13 · The Sydney Morning Herald
One Nation steadies within striking range of lagging Queensland Labor · assertive framing

Claims (21 extracted, 0 hedged)

One Nation’s support at a state level in Queensland has steadied to be within striking distance of a lagging Labor, as minor parties take a further bite from major counterparts at the election cycle’s halfway mark. asserted
parties → steady → mark
But the Crisafulli LNP remains the clear favourite, with primary vote support of 32 per cent, the latest two-month Resolve Political Monitor conducted for this masthead shows. asserted
Monitor → remain → masthead
Personal ratings also reveal Premier David Crisafulli again extending his lead over Opposition Leader Steven Miles, despite a second straight narrowing of his still significant lead as preferred premier. asserted
Crisafulli → reveal → premier
This month marks two years since Crisafulli’s party swept to power for the first time in more than a decade, with the milestone looming for both leaders as a turning point towards the 2028 election. asserted
milestone → mark → election
At its peak earlier in the year, Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party briefly level-pegged with Labor at a state level of 24 per cent. asserted
party → peg → cent
In this latest snapshot, One Nation’s share rose from 20 per cent to 21 per cent, within the 3 per cent margin of error, amid a focus on federal matters and looming state elections in Victoria and NSW. asserted
share → rise → Victoria
Small lifts for the Greens (one percentage point, to 11 per cent) and independents (one percentage point, to 7 per cent) have driven non-major parties to 44 per cent of primary vote support. asserted
lifts → drive → support
Miles’ net likeability remained the same at -6, as Crisafulli’s lifted from +16 to +20. asserted
Crisafulli → remain → +20
Crisafulli’s preferred premier support remained at 41 per cent, with Miles’ lifting two points to 24 per cent. asserted
Miles → remain → cent
Resolve director Jim Reed said overall, the vote position had been relatively stable across the year, outside the slow gains of One Nation. asserted
position → say → Nation
“Crisafulli still achieves quite healthy personal ratings, so there’s no sign the electorate have tired of him during his first term,” Reed said. asserted
Reed → achieve → term
The results come from two waves of polling conducted with registered voters from September 1 to 5, and October 6 to 10, for a total sample size of 868. asserted
results → come → 868
Across that period, the government has continued to face pressure over its management of the state’s Child Safety system and was hit with Queensland’s first credit rating downgrade in almost two decades. asserted
government → continue → decades
While Miles faced publicly aired, but anonymous, criticisms of his leadership and concerns in the media about a clear path for a replacement this month, he is not yet facing an imminent threat. asserted
he → face → threat
Labor’s primary vote support sits lower than it did in 2012, when the party was reduced to just seven seats. asserted
party → sit → seats
While scrutiny of One Nation’s policies and party organisation has increased with its ascendance in polling nationwide this year, this is yet to translate into an explicit focus on Queensland state politics. asserted
this → increase → politics
State-level support for the party in Hanson’s home state had briefly passed the 22.6 per cent result achieved at her breakthrough 1998 Queensland election, which took the party from 0 to 11 seats. asserted
which → pass → seats
The party currently has no sitting MPs in Queensland, despite its state branch website still listing Stephen Andrew as the member for Mirani. asserted
website → have → Mirani
Andrew was dumped from the party by Hanson before the 2024 election. asserted
Andrew → dump → election
The next state election will be held in late October 2028. asserted
election → hold → October
While Crisafulli has repeatedly reiterated his pledge to return optional preferential voting, the change is yet to be enacted. asserted
change → reiterate → voting
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