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Diesel futures jump, signaling higher prices to come despite Trump’s Russia deal

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Kopack, S. (2026, October 13). Diesel futures jump, signaling higher prices to come despite Trump’s Russia deal. NBC News. https://www.nbcnews.com/business/energy/diesel-futures-higher-prices-trump-moves-rcna603218

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NBC News · collected 2026-10-13 · by Steve Kopack

Quick Summary

Diesel futures increased sharply on Tuesday, rising 5% in the U.S. and 3.8% in Europe, signaling upcoming higher prices despite President Trump’s deal with Russia to boost diesel supplies. The average nationwide price of diesel has already risen by 70% since recent attacks on Iran, while unleaded gas prices have increased by more than 45%. Analysts like Tom Kloza and Patrick de Haan suggest that these price spikes could continue through the midterm elections, with de Haan predicting $6/gal diesel prices may persist. The market’s reaction indicates skepticism about the effectiveness of Trump's Russian deal in addressing current supply issues.
Written by AI on 2026-10-13, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

AI analysis

Story summary

Diesel futures saw a significant increase of 5% by midday on Tuesday, reaching their highest levels in weeks despite President Trump's recent deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin to boost diesel supplies. The deal was meant to alleviate rising fuel prices but has not yet had the desired effect. In Europe, diesel futures rose by about 3.8%, and gas futures reached highs unseen throughout the year. Since U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran in February, the average nationwide price of diesel has surged by 70% while unleaded gas costs have increased by more than 45%. This surge is particularly concerning as it coincides with upcoming midterm elections where voters are sensitive to rising fuel prices.

Written for “Trump Russia Deal Oil Prices” on 2026-11-03, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.

Story

📰 Trump Russia Deal Oil Prices
Economy/Business · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

Compared with similar articles

This article reads leans left and hedges 17% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
Washington Examiner
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 1 of 4 claims Outlet record 70/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of diesel prices and their drivers but do not describe the exact same incident at the same time.”
Fox News
⚖️ Leans right further right than this Hedges 8 of 39 claims Outlet record 69/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of rising diesel prices, with Article A focusing on truckers' warnings and financial impacts, while Article B covers futures market movements and price signals.”
Al Jazeera
Hedges 2 of 14 claims Outlet record 60/100
“The first article describes Trump's announcement about a Russian diesel deal, while the second discusses market reactions to that announcement days later.”
The Straits Times
⚖️ Leans right further right than this Hedges 3 of 17 claims Outlet record 66/100
“Article A reports on Trump's announcement about Russia supplying diesel to the US, while Article B discusses market reactions and price increases for diesel futures several days later.”
NPR
Hedges 4 of 37 claims Outlet record 60/100
“Article A reports on Trump's announcement about a deal with Russia to import diesel, while Article B discusses the market reaction and price increases in diesel futures following that announcement.”
CBS News
Hedges 1 of 2 claims Outlet record 66/100
“While both articles discuss diesel prices and a deal with Russia, they describe different aspects of the situation: one focuses on Trump's announcement about Russian supply deals, while the other reports on market reactions and futures price movements.”
Al Jazeera
Hedges 3 of 46 claims Outlet record 60/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of the diesel market situation and do not describe the same specific incident or occurrence.”
Daily Mail
Hedges 2 of 22 claims Outlet record 69/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of diesel and gas prices, with Article A focusing on Republicans' reaction to Trump's deal with Putin, while Article B focuses on futures markets signaling higher prices.”
The Hindu
Hedges 0 of 12 claims Outlet record 77/100
“Article A describes Trump's announcement about Russia supplying diesel to the U.S., while Article B reports on the market reaction and price increases for diesel futures several days later.”
Toronto Star
Hedges 6 of 27 claims Outlet record 64/100
“Article A discusses the announcement and details of a deal between the U.S. and Russia to supply diesel, while Article B reports on market reactions to this deal several days later.”
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
23
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
17%
4 of 23 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
Leans left
of the writing, not the subject · beta estimate
Publisher signals
60/100
NBC News's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
1
Economy/Business
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-10-13 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

NBC News · 2014 article(s) · 1 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 1 correction(s)

Who wrote this

Steve Kopack
29 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 “My plan will cut energy prices in half or more than that within 12 months of taking office,” the then-candidate said in September 2024, while adding that it would mean “gasoline below $2 a gallon.”
🔮 Amazon’s spending had already been set to double from 2025.
🔮 Google is still America’s fourth largest company by market value, and its shares are worth more than $3.4 trillion, all told. But the sharp drop in its stock price Thursday was the latest sign of a broader anxiety creeping through Wall Street over how long it will take big artificial intelligence companies to see consistent returns on their massive investments.
🔮 The Federal Reserve is meeting in Washington this week, when it will consider whether to raise interest rates in an effort to tamp down on inflation.
🔮 President Donald Trump, likewise, seemed to back off some of his angrier rhetoric over the weekend, when he told reporters a potential trade deal with Canada would be “settled pretty soon.”
🔮 It is expected to arrive on Tuesday, November 10.
🔮 When Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh strides onstage in Bangkok on Friday morning, it will be after 11 p.m. on Thursday in New York.
🔮 Friday’s number is the final inflation report before November’s pivotal midterm elections, where business owners and consumers have said they will be voting with their bottom line in mind.
🔮 And the final government inflation report before November’s pivotal midterm elections will likely reflect how much of a headache it’s become for businesses and consumers.
2026-10-13 · assertive framing · What’s fueling inflation? Fuel.
🔮 A move higher in futures markets typically signals that prices will climb in the coming days.
Also by Steve Kopack
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 29 articles by Steve Kopack →

Topics

Iran Israel Russian U.S. the Trump administration’s

Subjects

Trump PERSON · 5× Russian NORP · 4× U.S. GPE · 4× Donald Trump PERSON · 1× Gulf Oil ORG · 1× Iran GPE · 1× Israel GPE · 1× Republicans NORP · 1× Tom Kloza PERSON · 1× the Trump administration’s ORG · 1×

Narrative

“Truckers and farmers not going to see any relief anytime soon,” he wrote on X. The broad spike higher in diesel futures Tuesday came just two days after Trump announced a controversial deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin, to increase diesel supplies in the United States by buying previously sanctioned Russian reserves.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-10-13
🔮 A move higher in futures markets typically signals that prices will climb in the coming days.

Claims (23 extracted, 4 hedged)

Diesel futures traded sharply higher Tuesday, as doubts mounted about the likely impacts of the Trump administration’s latest efforts to push prices down. asserted
doubts → trade → prices
In Europe, diesel futures rose by about 3.8%, while gas futures spiked to levels not seen all year. asserted
futures → rise → levels
A move higher in futures markets typically signals that prices will climb in the coming days. asserted
prices → signal → days
Already, the average nationwide price of diesel is up 70% since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28. asserted
U.S. → attack → Feb.
The cost of unleaded gas has risen by more than 45% over that period. asserted
cost → rise → period
Brent traded around $106 per barrel, while U.S. crude oil neared $95 per barrel. asserted
oil → trade → barrel
Both of those key energy benchmarks have risen around 70% since the start of the year. asserted
Both → rise → year
Gas and diesel prices are rising especially fast in parts of the country where President Donald Trump and Republicans can least afford to anger voters ahead of November’s midterm elections. asserted
Trump → rise → elections
“Absolutely stunning price spikes in wholesale diesel today,” wrote Gulf Oil adviser Tom Kloza Tuesday on X. “US retail diesel price record of $6.53/gal could be topped by the midterms. uncertain
record → write → midterms
“Up 18cts/gal Gulf Coast and East Coast; but up 28cts/gal in Southern California and 25-30cts/gal in Great Plains and Great Lakes,” he wrote. asserted
he → write → Plains
Patrick de Haan, the head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said “$6/gal diesel may be here to stay for now.” uncertain
diesel → say → GasBuddy
“Truckers and farmers not going to see any relief anytime soon,” he wrote on X. The broad spike higher in diesel futures Tuesday came just two days after Trump announced a controversial deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin, to increase diesel supplies in the United States by buying previously sanctioned Russian reserves. asserted
Trump → go → reserves
When Trump announced the deal on Sunday, he said it would result in millions of metric tons of additional diesel for the world. asserted
it → announce → world
While that may sound like a lot, analysts have since crunched the numbers and determined that, at best, the diesel in question would amount to less than two weeks’ worth of U.S. demand. uncertain
diesel → sound → demand
Tuesday’s higher diesel futures are evidence of the market “clearly not believing that Russian oil is on the way,” said Kloza. asserted
Kloza → believe → way
The deal with Putin also required that the Trump administration suspend longstanding sanctions on Russian energy purchases. asserted
administration → require → purchases
The sanctions were put in place after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, and the decision to lift them until April of next year has drawn widespread backlash both at home and abroad. asserted
decision → put → home
Trump has also applied pressure to European allies in an effort to get them to release more of their diesel reserves. asserted
them → apply → reserves
The president’s announcement on Oct. 2 that Europe had bowed to the pressure and would release fuel temporarily cooled prices for a few days. asserted
Europe → bow → days
But a lack of additional details about that release gradually erased any price relief. asserted
lack → erase → relief
A subsequent statement from the International Energy Agency confirmed what traders had suspected: Europe would not be releasing any new diesel reserves, merely continuing to fulfill a pledge it made in March as part of a multinational effort to cap rising fuel prices. asserted
it → confirm → prices
Trump has also signed an executive order this month that sought to ease restrictions on an off-road formulation of diesel that is dyed red and not subject to federal gas taxes. But industry groups quickly warned truckers to avoid using “red-dye diesel without more information about how the taxes would work. asserted
taxes → sign → information
As of Tuesday, it was unclear whether Trump’s red-dye diesel order had any impact on domestic prices or supply. uncertain
order → have → prices
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