In U.S. President Donald Trump’s mind, he has tried a limited war, diplomacy and economic coercion against Iran but has still failed to achieve his objectives.
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he → try → objectives
What he hasn’t tried is an all-out war against Iran, which he might consider once the midterm elections are over, says Trita Parsi, executive vice-president of the Washington-based Quincy Institute.
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Parsi → try → Institute
Speaking on The Hindu’sThe View from India podcast, Mr. Parsi said Iran wants a new, uncontested order in the Persian Gulf and appears prepared to fight a long battle.
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Iran → speak → battle
Let’s start with Yemen, where the conflict is rapidly escalating.
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conflict → let → Yemen
Do you think Saudi Arabia walked into a trap set by the Houthis?
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Arabia → think → Houthis
No, I think the Saudis set a trap for themselves.
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Saudis → think → themselves
They did not think this conflict was going to go this far.
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conflict → think → ?
We see that their ability to defend their airports is failing.
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ability → see → airports
It’s also important to note that both Iran’s missile capabilities and the Houthis’ missile capabilities appear to have grown significantly.
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capabilities → ’ → ?
And we see that the U.S. side is attesting to the fact that the Iranians are capable not only of shooting better missiles but also of shooting them more effectively.
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Iranians → see → them
The Houthis also have very advanced scientists who have apparently taken some of the Iranian missiles and improved them.
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who → have → them
The Houthis have themselves made improvements that the Iranians are now benefiting from.
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Iranians → make → that
And this is all taking the Saudis by surprise.
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this → take → surprise
Saudi Arabia has powerful allies, including the U.S.
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Arabia → have → U.S.
It also has a trilateral pact with Pakistan and Türkiye.
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It → have → Pakistan
But none of them seem to be interested in joining the war.
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none → seem → war
On the other side, Israeli media report that the Israelis are keen to join the war, but MBS is resisting…
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MBS → report → war
So, first of all, when it comes to Turkiye
And then you have the Israeli factor in terms of wanting to come in on Saudi Arabia’s side in this war, which, according to the Haaretz story, has been resisted by MBS, recognising what a devastating blow that would be to Saudi Arabia’s standing in the Muslim world.
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that → come → world
It’s bad enough that they’re fighting the Houthis.
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they → ’ → Houthis
If they’re fighting the Houthis alongside Bibi Netanyahu and the Israelis, who are still knee-deep in the blood of a genocide that they are still conducting, it really serves the narrative of Iran and the axis of resistance.
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it → fight → resistance
Does the war between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis strengthen Iran’s hand in the larger conflict?
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war → strengthen → conflict
It has.
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It → have → ?
But I think it’s important to note that it’s not stable.
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it → think → ?
This [the Saudi-Houthi escalation] is putting more pressure on the oil markets.
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This → put → markets
The strike against the East-West pipeline [of Saudi Arabia] showed that a lot of these ideas of building pipelines that circumvent the Strait of Hormuz are far-fetched.
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that → show → Hormuz
So, in that sense, it is showing Iran’s escalatory options, to the extent that we assume that this was coordinated between Iran and the Houthis.
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this → show → Iran
But I don’t think that the relationship is such that the Iranians decide what is done and the Houthis follow.
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Houthis → think → ?
Here’s where this is also a problem for the Iranians.
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this → ’ → Iranians
This escalation now risks taking matters in a direction in which the escalation becomes uncontrollable.
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escalation → risk → which
Prior to this, the escalation between the U.S. and Iran was highly problematic, but on both sides, it was quite calibrated, quite calculated.
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it → calibrate → sides
The Houthi-Saudi escalation may not be able to be calibrated.
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escalation → calibrate → ?
You can also see a situation in which the U.S. and Iran may come to some sort of an agreement and want de-escalation.
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U.S. → see → escalation
And in the MoU that was signed before, the first paragraph stated that there would be a region-wide ceasefire.
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paragraph → sign → MoU
Lebanon was very clearly included because there was no war between the Saudis and the Houthis at the time.
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Lebanon → include → time
Does the regional ceasefire still include all of the region?
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ceasefire → include → region
Does it include Yemen and the Houthis?
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it → include → Yemen
If so, under what circumstances will the Houthis agree to a ceasefire?
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Houthis → agree → ceasefire
Their demand is for the blockade to be lifted.
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blockade → lift → ?
The blockade is rooted in a UN Security Council resolution.
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blockade → root → resolution
Does this mean that now you need to have a new resolution in the Council lifting that blockade in order to get a ceasefire?
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you → mean → ceasefire
…and 63 more, not listed.
The Aporia
