It was a point of national pride that at the height of the 2015 refugee crisis across Europe, Sweden took in 163,000 asylum seekers, the second-highest per capita across the continent – equivalent to one person for every 60 locals.
asserted
Sweden → take → locals
But a decade on, that number had fallen by 96 per cent.
asserted
number → fall → cent
Successive governments from both the political left and then the right have pushed for firmer measures on migration that have steadily gained acceptance across society.
asserted
that → push → society
Voters will head to the polls on Sunday for a tight election that stands to decide whether the country will shun the direction of the last government or deepen this political shift.
asserted
country → head → shift
The ruling centre-right minority coalition relies on outside support from the anti-immigration Sweden Democrats, a party that has steadily come into the mainstream and is now polling at 19 per cent.
asserted
that → rule → cent
A win would offer them ministerial positions for the first time, inviting deep-seated concern from onlookers.
asserted
win → offer → onlookers
“The election is a referendum on the Sweden Democrats; whether we continue to go down a far-right path,” according to author and political commentator Jan Guillou.
uncertain
we → continue → Guillou
Ahead of Sunday’s general elections, The Independent looks at a far-right victory could mean for a country grappling again with its identity.
uncertain
victory → look → identity
The Sweden Democrats were founded in 1988 as a radical nationalist party.
asserted
Democrats → found → party
According to an internal investigation, some founders were neo-Nazis, although the party under Jimmie Åkesson, who has led them since 2005, has disavowed those roots, expelling openly racist members and saying it maintains a strict “no racism” policy.
uncertain
it → accord → policy
Cleaning up the party’s image has helped a marginal movement grow into a substantial force with influence over talking points across the political spectrum.
asserted
movement → clean → spectrum
The movement still leans on hardline populist messaging around migration, criminal justice and national identity.
asserted
movement → lean → migration
Åkesson has found an audience in appeals to making Sweden “great again”.
asserted
Sweden → find → appeals
“He's not up on a high horse and he has a knack for explaining complicated issues in an easy, understandable way,” explains Jenny Madestam, a political scientist at Sweden’s Södertörn University.
asserted
Madestam → have → University
This appeal has won the Sweden Democrats enough influence to become essential in the centre-right’s battle to hold on to power.
asserted
appeal → win → power
Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson says the country needs a stable majority government to tackle important issues, such as national security and gang crime, and that the only way is to include the Sweden Democrats.
asserted
way → say → Democrats
Some Conservatives last time around framed an alliance with the far-right as a way to contain its influence.
asserted
Conservatives → frame → influence
One area where all the main parties seem to agree is Russia.
asserted
parties → seem → ?
Nicholas Aylott, associate professor of political science at Södertörn University, told the Associated Press: “The biggest threat to Sweden's security is from the war in Ukraine and there is almost complete consensus in Sweden about support for Ukraine and deep antipathy towards Russia.”
asserted
threat → tell → Russia
What would the Sweden Democrats do with power?
asserted
Democrats → do → power
The party’s 2026 programme gives an indication of what ministers might try to achieve if the Sweden Democrats become part of a four-way ruling partnership: reducing migration to the lowest possible level, deporting foreign national accused of serious crimes, imposing harsher criminal penalties, and keeping fuel and energy costs down.
uncertain
Democrats → give → costs
Asylum numbers have dropped to a 40-year low and while Kristersson says the focus will now be on integration, the Sweden Democrats want to go further.
asserted
Democrats → drop → integration
In July, while campaigning for the upcoming election, the party paid for adverts promoting a new initiative offering migrants around 350,000 Swedish crowns (£26,700/$37,000) to leave the country.
asserted
party → campaign → country
“Do you miss Mogadishu?
asserted
you → miss → Mogadishu
The remigration grant will help you get home,” reads one of the adverts.
asserted
one → help → adverts
So far this year, 171 people have taken up the offer of cash to leave.
asserted
people → take → cash
The Sweden Democrats want to extend the offer to immigrants with Swedish citizenship, if they agree to revoke it and leave.
asserted
they → want → it
Critics fear the party’s promises to end multiculturalism, restore traditional Swedish values and ban some forms of Muslim dress could deepen social divisions and shift the political centre of gravity even further right.
uncertain
promises → fear → gravity
“If the Sweden Democrats enter government, that would have an enormously negative impact on the liberal ideals of our country,” says Birgitta Ohlsson, European Affairs minister from 2010 to 2014, and now a Center Party lawmaker.
asserted
Ohlsson → enter → 2014
“We've already seen the effects while they've been outside government, and it would be ten times worse
asserted
it → see → government
Despite a consensus over tight immigration policies, many Swedes still feel a deep unease about the far right and polls point to a knife-edge vote with the centre-left opposition, which is backing Social Democrats leader Magdalena Andersson for prime minister, holding a small but narrowing lead.
asserted
which → feel → lead
A wider pattern across Europe
The election comes just days after the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party won an historic victory in Saxony-Anhalt, sending ripples through the political establishment and further undermining the unpopular centre-right government.
asserted
party → come → government
The AfD, bolstered by public angst over the scale of mass immigration, surged into first place on Sunday in the state election, the first time a far-right party has come within reach of power at the state level since the Second World War.
asserted
party → bolster → War
The outcome earned the recognition of US president Donald Trump, who seized the opportunity to praise the party and criticise the “absolutely horrible Immigration rules and regulations which have hurt Germany so badly”.
asserted
which → earn → Germany
Across Europe, mainstream governments continue to be reshaped by pressure from the far-right, adopting populist language and policies in an attempt to stay relevant.
asserted
governments → continue → attempt
Sweden’s election, like Germany before it, will be another test of where that leads.
asserted
that → lead → it
The Aporia
