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Why Wallabies are a better chance of winning World Cup than Bledisloe

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Cite

Doran, C. (2026, October 19). Why Wallabies are a better chance of winning World Cup than Bledisloe. The Sydney Morning Herald. https://www.smh.com.au/sport/rugby-union/why-wallabies-are-a-better-chance-of-winning-world-cup-than-bledisloe-20261019-p616pl.html?ref=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_source=rss_feed

Dated from the outlet's own feed. Check the original for its byline.

The Sydney Morning Herald · collected 2026-10-19 · by Christy Doran

Quick Summary

Les Kiss, the Ireland coach, believes that despite Australia's recent 43-21 loss to New Zealand in the Bledisloe Cup, they have a better chance of winning the upcoming World Cup than reclaiming the Bledisloe Cup next year. The article argues that losing their second pool match in the World Cup could actually benefit Australia by placing them on an easier side of the draw, potentially facing England, Ireland or Argentina in later stages rather than South Africa, New Zealand, and France who are predicted to be on the opposite side. Former Wallabies coach John Connolly supports this view, stating that a quarter-final match against England would be ideal for Australia's progression towards the final.
Written by AI on 2026-10-19, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

AI analysis

Story summary

The Sydney Morning Herald reported on October 19, 2026, that despite the Wallabies' recent heavy defeat against New Zealand (All Blacks) in the Bledisloe Cup, they have a better chance of winning their third Rugby World Cup than reclaiming the Bledisloe Cup next year. Les Kiss, the Wallabies coach, might view an October loss to England in Sydney during the World Cup pool matches as advantageous, potentially setting up easier matchups later in the tournament. The article notes that such a scenario could place Australia in a quarter-final against England and then face either Ireland or Argentina in the semi-finals, suggesting these opponents are more favorable than some others.

Written for “Rugby World Cup Odds” on 2026-11-02, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.

Story

📰 Rugby World Cup Odds
Sports · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

Compared with similar articles

This article reads unscored and hedges 8% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
The Sydney Morning Herald
Hedges 1 of 43 claims Outlet record 61/100
“The articles discuss different rugby teams (Rugby League Kangaroos vs. Rugby Union Wallabies) and contexts (World Cup prospects vs. recent performance in Bledisloe Cup).”
The Sydney Morning Herald
Hedges 2 of 21 claims Outlet record 61/100
“The articles discuss different teams and competitions within Rugby, with Article A focusing on Samoa's NRL players and their World Cup campaign, while Article B discusses the Wallabies' chances of winning the World Cup compared to lifting the Bledisloe Cup.”
ABC News (AU)
Hedges 0 of 5 claims Outlet record 68/100
“The articles discuss different sports events and outcomes, one focusing on Rugby League World Cup matches while the other discusses rugby union's Wallabies team.”
The Sydney Morning Herald
Hedges 1 of 22 claims Outlet record 61/100
“Article A discusses a 'quadruple header' rugby event at Accor Stadium, while Article B focuses on the Wallabies' performance and prospects in the Nations Championship and World Cup.”
The Sydney Morning Herald
Hedges 0 of 26 claims Outlet record 61/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of rugby events and do not focus on the same specific incident.”
The Sydney Morning Herald
Hedges 4 of 73 claims Outlet record 61/100
“The articles discuss different outcomes and contexts related to the Wallabies' performance, not a single specific match or incident.”
Toronto Star
Hedges 0 of 24 claims Outlet record 64/100
“Article A describes the specific rugby match result between New Zealand and Australia, while Article B discusses broader implications for future competitions.”
ABC News (AU)
Hedges 0 of 3 claims Outlet record 68/100
“The articles discuss different sports teams and outcomes from distinct matches or competitions.”
The Sydney Morning Herald
Hedges 3 of 31 claims Outlet record 61/100
“The articles discuss different time periods and contexts related to the Wallabies' performance, not a single specific incident.”
ABC News (AU)
Hedges 8 of 31 claims Outlet record 68/100
“Article A covers various rugby league match scores during RLWC, while Article B discusses the Wallabies' chances in a World Cup compared to a Bledisloe Cup defeat.”
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
37
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
8%
3 of 37 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
not political
takes no side on a contested political question
Publisher signals
61/100
The Sydney Morning Herald's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
1
Sports
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-10-19 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

The Sydney Morning Herald · 5766 article(s) · 15 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 15 correction(s)

Who wrote this

Christy Doran
19 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
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Also by Christy Doran
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 19 articles by Christy Doran →

Topics

Argentina England Ireland Wallabies World Cup

Subjects

Wallabies ORG · 13× Kiss PERSON · 8× England GPE · 4× the All Blacks ORG · 3× Argentina GPE · 2× France GPE · 2× Ireland GPE · 2× Rennie PERSON · 2× Springboks ORG · 2× the All Blacks’ ORG · 2×

Narrative

“Meeting England is the best possible scenario for the Wallabies,” said Connolly, whose Australian side was pipped 12-10 by the same opponents in the 2007 World Cup quarter-finals in Marseille after Stirling Mortlock missed a late penalty in what the former coach described as a “great sliding doors moment” and his “greatest regret”.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-10-19
🔮 That’s what Les Kiss will be thinking – and hoping – occurs in 12 months.
2026-10-19 · The Sydney Morning Herald
Why Wallabies are a better chance of winning World Cup than Bledisloe · assertive framing

Claims (37 extracted, 3 hedged)

They say he who laughs last, laughs loudest. asserted
who → say → ?
That’s what Les Kiss will be thinking – and hoping – occurs in 12 months. asserted
Kiss → ’ → months
It might sound crazy following their ugly 43-21 defeat on Saturday, but the Wallabies have a better chance of winning their third World Cup than lifting the Bledisloe Cup next year. uncertain
Wallabies → sound → Cup
Next month’s Nations Championship could provide an insight into why, as Kiss’ men head north to take on England, Scotland and Wales, before returning to London for the inaugural “finals weekend”. uncertain
men → provide → weekend
While Wallabies fans were left to rue another heavy Bledisloe defeat on Saturday – the nation’s 13th straight loss to the All Blacks since 2021 – Kiss won’t necessarily be in a spin if they go down in their second World Cup pool match in Sydney next October. asserted
they → leave → Sydney
Because it would put them on the other side of the World Cup draw, setting up a potentially much easier route to a fourth final, and the first since 2015. asserted
it → put → 2015
In that scenario, the Wallabies would likely meet England in the quarter-finals before facing either Ireland or Argentina in the semi-finals. asserted
Wallabies → meet → finals
Rassie Erasmus’ Springboks – who are bidding to become the first nation to win three World Cups in a row – and France are shaping up to be on the same side of the draw as Dave Rennie’s All Blacks. asserted
who → bid → Blacks
It means only one of South Africa (world No.1), New Zealand (No.2) and France (No.4) can reach the final in a bizarre situation Rennie recently described as “crazy”. asserted
Rennie → mean → situation
Of course, the Wallabies would still need to beat whichever of those three reached the decider, but at least they’d be in it. asserted
they → need → it
Former Wallabies coach John Connolly said meeting No.5-ranked England in a quarter-final would be the scenario Kiss’ side would be hoping for. asserted
side → say → final
“Meeting England is the best possible scenario for the Wallabies,” said Connolly, whose Australian side was pipped 12-10 by the same opponents in the 2007 World Cup quarter-finals in Marseille after Stirling Mortlock missed a late penalty in what the former coach described as a “great sliding doors moment” and his “greatest regret”. asserted
coach → meet → moment
“I think we can also beat Ireland, especially later in the year in the warmer months. asserted
we → think → months
Argentina shouldn’t scare the Wallabies either. asserted
Argentina → scare → Wallabies
” While the Wallabies were outclassed by the world No.2 All Blacks a few weeks after toppling a second-string Springboks side in Perth, Kiss’ side had its moments against Rennie’s men. asserted
side → outclass → men
But like a week earlier at Eden Park, where they mucked up an attacking lineout on the All Blacks’ line shortly after half-time when they were eyeing a lead, they just didn’t take them. asserted
they → muck → them
Indeed, twice inside the opening 10 minutes, the Wallabies created an overlap on the All Blacks out wide but passed long rather than short and missed the opportunity to run in tries. asserted
Wallabies → create → tries
It proved costly. asserted
It → prove → ?
“Maybe some better decision making on the edges would have been nice for us,” bemoaned Kiss. asserted
Kiss → bemoan → us
“We took the long pass instead of hands that was created by [rookie playmaker] Declan [Meredith] inside.” asserted
that → take → Meredith
While the Wallabies bombed the two chances, as well as an attacking maul on the All Blacks’ five-metre line in the 15th minute, it showed that Kiss’ side can create opportunities to score. asserted
side → bomb → opportunities
Defence, however, will be the area the Wallabies need to improve most in November, after Kiss’ side conceded 14 tries in the two matches against the All Blacks. asserted
side → need → Blacks
The passive approach put a spotlight on Scott McLeod’s new defensive system, as the All Blacks ate up the yards and got well over the advantage line. asserted
Blacks → put → line
It meant the All Blacks’ back row, featuring Peter Lakai and Wallace Sititi, had a field day, as the duo easily outshone the Wallabies’ star loose-forward trio of captain Harry Wilson, Fraser McReight and Rob Valetini. asserted
duo → mean → Wilson
The Wallabies weren’t helped by the absence of six key players, including centres Len Ikitau (concussion) and Hunter Paisami (suspension). asserted
Wallabies → help → Ikitau
And without their preferred midfield duo, the All Blacks trained their sights on Kiss’ new centre combination and exposed Isaac Henry and Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii. asserted
Blacks → prefer → Henry
“They [the All Blacks] picked some beautiful lines, their passing was spot on and they just picked us off a little bit,” Kiss said. asserted
Kiss → pick → us
The pending returns of northern hemisphere-based Taniela Tupou (Paris) and Tom Hooper (Exeter), who were unavailable for the Bledisloe series because the Tests were played outside the international window, should stiffen up the forwards and provide Kiss with much more physicality. asserted
Tests → pende → physicality
Asked whether the Wallabies could turn it around in time for the World Cup, Kiss was steadfast in his belief they could, adding that the baptism of fire his side was experiencing would ultimately help. uncertain
side → ask → fire
“It’s the time we have,” Kiss said. asserted
Kiss → ’ → ?
“One of the great qualities that we got today was Declan Meredith standing up. asserted
Meredith → get → that
We know we have experience in a number of positions that we can lean back into, but to get these boys up to speed is something that’s important for us. asserted
that → know → us
“The time we have is the time we have. asserted
we → have → ?
“I believe in these guys deeply about what is possible. asserted
what → believe → guys
I’ve always said we’ll have our ups and downs, and [the result] was a bit of a downer, but there is, I think, some good clues from what we’re trying to do in our game. asserted
we → say → game
“When we do play with footy in the hand with a positive intent, we’re making a lot of breaks against one of the best teams in the world. asserted
we → play → world
I think there are some good qualities that are coming through, so I’m still optimistic.” asserted
I → think → ?
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