Does Vladimir Putin know exactly how to play Donald Trump?
asserted
Putin → know → Trump
The history of chummy phone calls, high-profile meetings and attempts to bring Russia in from the cold certainly suggests that Moscow’s thuggish ruler has a hold on this American president.
uncertain
ruler → bring → president
If Mr Trump agrees to negotiate Ukraine’s future with Mr Putin and China’s Xi Jinping without Ukraine at the table, he will have handed the Russian leader a victory before talks begin.
asserted
talks → agree → victory
The message will be that strongmen are ruling the world and determining the fate of weaker nations.
asserted
strongmen → rule → nations
Ukraine has the right to determine its future.
asserted
Ukraine → have → future
That right cannot be waved away by a self-serving Russian proposal, however much it indulges Mr Trump’s belief that world affairs should be settled by powerful men.
asserted
affairs → wave → men
The scales are falling from European eyes.
asserted
scales → fall → eyes
Trumpian America is raising doubts about whether it will help deter aggression or even honour its Nato commitments.
asserted
it → raise → commitments
If Washington now rewards Moscow and pressures Ukraine to accept a raw deal, it would be a betrayal.
asserted
it → reward → deal
European governments would wonder where America might be in the future when their own security is threatened.
uncertain
security → wonder → future
The Wall Street Journal laid out how Mr Putin is hoping to secure a diplomatic prize that dwarfs any US benefits.
asserted
that → lay → benefits
Mr Trump needs to bring down diesel prices before crucial midterm elections.
asserted
Trump → need → elections
So the Russian president has offered him a deal that helps the White House claim it is addressing such costs, despite most analysts saying that it won’t.
uncertain
it → offer → costs
In the same conversation, Mr Putin suggested a summit to end the war in Ukraine that would elevate Moscow and exclude Kyiv.
uncertain
that → suggest → Kyiv
China could also gain recognition as a diplomatic mediator, while Europe would be left out of discussions about ending a war on its continent.
uncertain
Europe → gain → continent
Reports suggest that the three leaders could meet at next month’s Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in China.
uncertain
leaders → suggest → China
American presidential power is meant to be constrained by law and democratic institutions.
asserted
power → mean → law
Mr Trump’s diesel deal appears to violate US law barring imports of Russian energy until Moscow ends its aggression against Ukraine.
asserted
Moscow → appear → Ukraine
More Republicans should find the courage to stand up to their bullying president.
asserted
Republicans → find → president
While doing so, they might also ask why the order to limit a satellite system used by Ukraine for battlefield communications and drone operations reportedly came from the White House.
uncertain
order → do → House
Heated denials from the US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, are no substitute for answers.
asserted
denials → heat → answers
Mr Trump’s national security strategy last year called Europe “strategically and culturally vital”.
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strategy → call → Europe
But it also demanded that the continent take responsibility for its own defence.
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continent → demand → defence
European governments must prepare to meet that challenge.
asserted
governments → prepare → challenge
History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.
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it → repeat → itself
Were Mr Trump to embrace Mr Putin’s trilateral summit, it would echo the Three Emperors’ League that brought together Germany, Austria-Hungary and Russia in 1873.
asserted
that → embrace → 1873
Germany sought to isolate defeated France and contain Austro-Russian rivalry, while monarchies sought to defend themselves against revolution.
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monarchies → seek → revolution
The original arrangement quickly unravelled.
asserted
arrangement → unravel → ?
Revived in 1881, the league collapsed in 1887 as Vienna and Moscow failed to reconcile their Balkan ambitions.
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Vienna → revive → ambitions
Agreement between powerful rulers provides no guarantee of a lasting settlement.
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Agreement → provide → settlement
Ukraine’s future cannot hang on bargains struck to stroke the egos of powerful men.
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future → hang → men
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you → have → article
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asserted
you → like → section
The Aporia
