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Open Thread 456

Read the original at Astral Codex Ten ↗
Cite

Alexander, S. (2026, October 19). Open Thread 456. Astral Codex Ten. https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/open-thread-456

Dated from the outlet's own feed. Check the original for its byline.

Astral Codex Ten · collected 2026-10-19 · by Scott Alexander commentary

Quick Summary

This article is an open thread where readers can discuss various topics related to ACX, a community with online forums and in-person meetups worldwide. It highlights changes in meetup locations, provides information about voter guides for political endorsements like Scott Wiener for Congress, and invites participation in surveys regarding AI grantmaking priorities. Additionally, it announces the launch of MNX, a real-money prediction market focused on AI companies and technologies, and introduces Common Notes, an AI-generated note-taking tool integrated with a browser extension.
Written by AI on 2026-10-19, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

AI analysis

Story summary

As of 2026-10-19, Scott Alexander invites readers of his blog Astral Codex Ten (ACX) to participate in a survey for his ongoing project on modeling and potentially automating AI grantmaking processes. The latest ACX open thread includes updates about meetups across various cities such as Rockville, Northampton, Eindhoven, Great Barrington, Cairo, Portland, and Sofia. Additionally, it highlights the completion of a Greater Boston general election voting guide by the Boston ACX meetup group, with a reminder for SF residents to register their mail-in ballots by the end-of-day deadline on Monday. Alexander also mentions plans for future surveys aimed at separating worldview differences from random noise in responses.

Written for “Open Thread” on 2026-11-04, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.

Story

📰 Open Thread
Technology · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

Compared with similar articles

This article reads unscored and hedges 11% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
Open Thread Different event
Reason
Outlet record 67/100
“The articles have different dates and appear to be separate weekly open threads rather than the same specific occurrence.”
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
18
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
11%
2 of 18 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
not political
takes no side on a contested political question
Publisher signals
not measured
these signals count newsroom corrections; Commentary has none to count
Outlets on this story
1
Technology
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-10-19 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

Astral Codex Ten · 65 article(s) · 4 correction(s) detected
No corrections detected for this publisher. That may mean careful reporting, or simply that nothing has been checked.

Who wrote this

Scott Alexander
52 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 One of the leading AI superforecaster companies, FutureSearch, is hiring.
2026-11-02 · assertive framing · Open Thread 458
🔮 A picaresque (broadly speaking) is about a lowlife wandering around having comical misadventures; Huckleberry Finn (1884) would be a notable American example.
2026-10-30 · assertive framing · Your Book Review: The History And Adventures Of An Atom
🔮 On average, commenters will end up spotting evidence that around two or three of the links in each links post are wrong or misleading.
2026-10-29 · assertive framing · Links For October 2026
🔮 California State Propositions Proposition 1: Authorizes $11.25 billion in bonds to build affordable housing Supporters claim it will build (or renovate) 40,000 homes; I asked an AI superforecaster1 to predict the true number, and it guessed that 22,000 would actually get built.
2026-10-28 · assertive framing · My California Ballot, 2026
🔮 I may have more of these in the upcoming week.
2026-10-19 · assertive framing · Open Thread 456
🔮 [This is one of the finalists in the 2026 book review contest, written by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done.
2026-10-17 · assertive framing · Your Book Review: Storm Of Steel
🔮 AI companies like Anthropic and OpenAI have long mentioned the possibility that their products could be existentially dangerous, but this has recently crescendoed into even more dire warnings, including suggestions that we have to pace the frontier, ie coordinate to slow AI progress.
2026-10-15 · assertive framing · AI Safety Is Not A Corporate Plot
🔮 [This is one of the finalists in the 2026 book review contest, written by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done.
2026-10-10 · assertive framing · Your Book Review: We Present Television
🔮 When I objected that maybe we should wait for you to accept before figuring out details, they all said great, that’s absolutely right, they would contact you right away.
2026-10-06 · assertive framing · An Open Letter To Steven Pinker On AI
🔮 I’m pretty busy and will try to make up for it after that changes.
2026-10-05 · assertive framing · Open Thread 454
Also by Scott Alexander
Open Thread 458
2026-11-02 · Astral Codex Ten
Links For October 2026
2026-10-29 · Astral Codex Ten
My California Ballot, 2026
2026-10-28 · Astral Codex Ten
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 52 articles by Scott Alexander →

Topics

ACX Discord MNX Northampton Rockville

Subjects

ACX ORG · 2× MNX ORG · 2× Cairo GPE · 1× Discord ORG · 1× Eindhoven GPE · 1× Great Barrington GPE · 1× Northampton GPE · 1× Portland ORG · 1× Rockville GPE · 1× Sofia GPE · 1×

Narrative

After you’ve taken that survey, if you still have more time/energy it would be extra helpful for my data collection if you would take this alternate version, which asks you to predict how I would answer the first survey (so I can separate out worldview differences from weight-choosing random noise).
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-10-19
🔮 I may have more of these in the upcoming week.
2026-10-19 · Astral Codex Ten
Open Thread 456 · assertive framing

Claims (18 extracted, 2 hedged)

Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. asserted
you → post → questions
ACX has an unofficial subreddit, Discord, and bulletin board, and in-person meetups around the world. asserted
ACX → have → world
Most content is free, some is subscriber only; you can subscribe here. asserted
you → subscribe → ?
2: The Boston ACX meetup group has finished their Greater Boston general election voting guide. asserted
group → finish → guide
I may have more of these in the upcoming week. uncertain
I → have → week
Still trying to figure out if we can do something for the Bay Area, but remember that SF mail-in ballot registration due date is end-of-day today (Monday), and that our main SF endorsement is Scott Wiener for Congress. asserted
endorsement → try → Congress
We may have more later. uncertain
We → have → more
I’m continuing to work on modeling (and maybe one day automating) some parts of AI grantmaking (you can see previous efforts here). asserted
you → continue → efforts
I would once again like people who are well-versed in the AI/grantmaking worlds to take a survey on how much they value various things. asserted
they → like → things
This one involves assigning utility weights to ~80 different AI safety accomplishments. asserted
one → involve → accomplishments
After you’ve taken that survey, if you still have more time/energy it would be extra helpful for my data collection if you would take this alternate version, which asks you to predict how I would answer the first survey (so I can separate out worldview differences from weight-choosing random noise). asserted
I → take → noise
4: Bay Area ACX meetup is scheduled for this coming Saturday, 10/24, 1 PM, at Mox in SF (1680 Mission St). asserted
meetup → schedule → SF
I’ll probably make a post about it, but consider this an early heads-up. asserted
this → make → it
5: Grantee and Manifold Markets co-founder Stephen Grugett announces his latest project: MNX is a real-money prediction market on AI. asserted
MNX → announce → AI
It lets people sell futures representing AI company stocks, bet on AI company revenues directly, and a few other things like Epoch Capabilities Index targets. asserted
people → let → targets
Interestingly, despite the talk of Anthropic’s API falling from from $2T to $1.5T, both Polymarket and MNX still price it around $2T. 6: asserted
Polymarket → fall → 6
Friend of the blog Goodheart Labs is working on Common Notes, aka “Twitter Community Notes, but for everything”. asserted
Friend → work → everything
They’re implementing it through a combination of AIs (who write most notes), users (who write others, and vote on which ones are helpful), and a browser extension (which makes the system show up on everything, including this blog). asserted
system → implement → blog
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