President Donald Trump is trying to convince voters before the Nov. 3 midterm elections that the U.S. economy is rocketing upward.
asserted
economy → try → elections
But voters say inflation remains a challenge because the Iran war has pushed up gasoline prices, grocery bills have remained expensive and high interest rates have made it harder to afford a home or a new car.
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it → say → home
The economy is neither as strong as Trump has claimed nor as weak as consumer sentiment surveys suggest.
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surveys → claim → ?
But with its mix of inflation, inequality and stock market gains, the economy is unsatisfying to most of the public, and its performance has not lived up to Trump’s promises.
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performance → live → promises
Here’s a closer look at the numbers that matter.
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that → ’ → numbers
Inflation at 3.7% annually has risen under Trump
Voters expected Trump to quash inflation.
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Trump → rise → inflation
In his inaugural address last year, the Republican pledged: “I will direct all members of my Cabinet to marshal the vast powers at their disposal to defeat what was record inflation and rapidly bring down costs and prices.”
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what → pledge → costs
And at an Oct. 3 campaign appearance in Vandalia, Ohio, he told the crowd: “We have almost no inflation.”
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We → tell → inflation
But Labor Department reports don’t bear that out.
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reports → bear → that
The consumer price index had been rising at an annual clip of 3% in January 2025, when Trump returned to the White House.
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Trump → rise → House
Inflation continued to slow until April 2025, when Trump announced a sweeping set of tariffs and prices began to climb again.
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prices → continue → tariffs
The inflationary pressures were compounded this year with the start of the Iran war.
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pressures → compound → war
Inflation has not returned to peaks seen during President Joe Biden’s term.
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Inflation → return → term
But the data tells a clear story of inflation on a downward trend that moved jaggedly upward under Trump.
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that → tell → Trump
The last CPI report before Election Day showed inflation was 3.7% over the past 12 months.
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inflation → show → months
GDP growth has been averaging a little over 2%
A University of Michigan survey of consumer sentiment shows that people are less confident about the U.S. economy now than during the coronavirus pandemic in 2020 or the 2008 financial crisis.
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people → average → 2020
The broadest measure of economic growth, gross domestic product, has been expanding at a bit more than 2% annually under Trump.
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measure → expand → Trump
But Trump keeps telling voters that growth has never been more propulsive.
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growth → tell → voters
The Republican president claims historic levels of foreign investment that are a mix of exaggerations and wishful thinking.
uncertain
that → claim → exaggerations
“We have growth the likes of which — and we’re going to have growth the likes of which — we’ve never seen before,” Trump said last week at a rally in Arizona.
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Trump → have → Arizona
The unemployment rate is low, but job growth has slowed
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growth → slow → ?
Trump inherited a low rate that has continued under his presidency in an environment that many economists have described as “low hire, low fire.”
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economists → inherit → hire
Trump likes to say there have never been so many jobs in U.S. history, but that’s largely because of population growth rather than his policies.
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that → like → growth
Employers are adding on average almost 39,000 jobs a month during Trump’s second term.
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Employers → add → term
Monthly hiring gains were three times larger — topping 121,000 on average — in the year before Trump returned to the White House.
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Trump → top → House
One factor in slower job growth is Trump’s crackdown on immigration, which means fewer people are looking for jobs.
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people → mean → jobs
The unemployment rate for people born in the U.S. has largely held steady, which would suggest that Americans are not taking the jobs formerly held by immigrants.
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Americans → bear → immigrants
Borrowing costs have risen
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costs → rise → ?
With an increasing national debt, persistently high inflation and the energy price spikes tied to the Iran war, it’s getting more expensive to borrow money for a home, auto or other basic needs.
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it → increase → home
Interest on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is above 5%, having hit its highest levels since 2002.
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Interest → hit → 2002
That makes it costlier for people to borrow and harder for the U.S. government to repay its bonds.
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government → make → bonds
Stocks have kept setting records
Trump likes to brag about how stock markets continue to set record highs under his presidency, although Biden could have made similar claims.
uncertain
Biden → keep → claims
It rose by about 16.4% last year.
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It → rise → %
But the increase in 2024 — before Trump became president — was 23.3%.
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Trump → become → 2024
The stock market is a function of more than presidential politics, as growth in tech stocks has sustained the broader market.
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growth → sustain → market
Trump’s tax cuts may have helped corporate earnings, as federal revenues from business taxes fell 16% last year, according to the Congressional Budget Office.
uncertain
revenues → help → Office
Inequality is widening
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Inequality → widen → ?
Since Trump returned to the White House, the wealth of the top 0.1% of households has increased by $5.5 trillion in just 18 months, according to Federal Reserve data.
uncertain
wealth → return → data
The bottom 50% of households have seen their wealth increase by $380 billion.
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wealth → see → billion
That means the bottom half of households on average saw their net worth improve by $5,600 under Trump’s presidency.
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worth → mean → presidency
…and 1 more, not listed.
The Aporia
