The Iran-backed Houthi rebels are now in a position to threaten Saudi Arabia’s 745-mile-long pipeline and the world’s largest oil processing plant — escalating the risk to global fuel supplies.
asserted
rebels → back → supplies
The Houthis’ lightning advance through the Yemeni coast has allowed the Bab al-Mandeb Strait to fall under its control, with the terror group threatening the kingdom’s largest pipeline and the oil processing plant in Abqaiq, has been compared to “the Panama Canal of global energy markets” for its impact.
asserted
group → allow → impact
The Houthis are already believed to have been behind the attack on the massive East-West pipeline, which along with Abqaiq and other oil facilities stand as easy targets for the rebels, according to security experts.
uncertain
which → believe → experts
“There is an inherent problem in trying to defend large, fixed infrastructure from the Houthi attacks,” said Kelly Campa, the head of the Middle East team for the Institute for the Study of War.
asserted
Campa → be → War
“Attacks on the pipeline are very concerning… and its clear that this is an Axis of Resistance effort to go after Saudi oil and impose more economic pains.”
asserted
this → it → pains
President Trump, meanwhile, has suggested that the expanded conflict is an internal issue for Yemen and Saudi Arabia that could be resolved quickly.
uncertain
that → suggest → Yemen
Why are the Houthis attacking?
asserted
Houthis → attack → ?
The Houthi rebels rose to global prominence after they captured Yemen’s capital of Sanaa in 2014 as part of a bloody civil war between the Iran-backed terror group and the Saudi-backed federal government.
asserted
they → rise → group
While a cease-fire was settled in 2022, the truce fell apart in July after Saudi-linked forces bombed a runway near the capital to keep an Iranian plane from landing.
asserted
forces → settle → plane
The incident sparked repeated attacks on Yemen’s internationally recognized government and Saudi Arabia, with the terror group announcing a maritime blockade on all Saudi ships in the Red Sea.
asserted
group → spark → Sea
Tehran and the Houthis had repeatedly warned that they would shut down the Bab al-Mandeb Strait if the US continued to strike Iran, with the rebel group unleashing thousands of fighters to the port city of Mokha over the weekend to cement their control of the waterway.
asserted
group → warn → waterway
Why does the Houthi attack impact oil supplies?
asserted
attack → impact → supplies
Ever since Iran effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia, one of the world’s largest exporters of crude, had redirected the bulk of its shipments through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea, where $1 trillion worth of goods pass through each year.
asserted
worth → shut → goods
The closure of the Strait would force oil and commercial tankers to divert north through Egypt’s Suez Canal, which would mean circumnavigating Africa and adding weeks to the ships’ journeys.
asserted
which → force → journeys
With the Houthi attacks, Saudi Arabia’s crude exports through its main Red Sea port dropped to about 2.5 million barrels a day last month, down from 4.6 million barrels a day in July, according to the International Energy Agency.
uncertain
exports → drop → Agency
Because the Bab al-Mandeb strait is narrower than the Strait of Hormuz, measuring only 20-miles wide, establishing a safe military escort route similar to the one being conducted off the coast of Oman would not be possible, the ISW warned.
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ISW → measure → Oman
Along with the naval attacks, the Houthis have also struck Saudi energy infrastructure, with an attack from Iran-backed Iraqi militias over the weekend hitting the critical East-West pipeline.
asserted
attack → strike → pipeline
“It does send a message that goes beyond the Strait of Hormuz… that the Axis of Resistance can threaten energy markets in the region beyond the strait,” Campa said.
asserted
Campa → send → strait
The massive East-West Pipeline runs across the entirety of Saudi Arabia, allowing the kingdom to move crude between the Persian Gulf and Red Sea.
asserted
kingdom → run → Gulf
Saudi Arabia has rerouted about 4 million barrels of crude a day through the pipeline during the war, about 4% of the world’s oil supply.
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Arabia → reroute → supply
The ISW warned that Saudi Arabia would need to defend every point of the 745-mile-long pipeline “given that damage to a single segment along the pipeline would render the entire pipeline inoperable.”
With the pipeline out of commission following the weekend attack, the Saudi port of Yanbu has only five to seven days of export currently available, industry insiders told The Guardian.
asserted
insiders → warn → Guardian
What is the Abqaiq oil processing plant?
asserted
plant → process → ?
Abqaiq stands as the world’s largest crude oil processing facility that is responsible for stabilizing about 7% of the world’s crude supply — that process involves separating out gases and impurities, allowing it to be safely stored and transported.
Thomas Warrick, who served as deputy assistant secretary for counterterrorism policy at Homeland Security in Trump’s first term, called the plant the “Panama Canal” of the global energy markets while highlighting its importance during an attack on the facility in 2019.
asserted
who → stand → 2019
The plant is notably part of the East-West pipeline network that is rerouting crude from the Strait of Hormuz, and its disruption would send further shocks to global oil prices.
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disruption → reroute → prices
Following the attack on the pipeline, the price for the Brent crude international benchmark soared to more than $109 per barrel on Monday, with even the US benchmark hitting $105 a barrel.
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benchmark → follow → 105
What is the US doing to stop the Houthis?
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US → do → Houthis
The US had launched a 53-day bombing campaign against the Houthis last year that ended in a cease-fire after retaliatory attacks from the rebel group.
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that → launch → group
President Trump appeared to be hesitant about sending more American forces to the region following a call from Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman last week urging the US to get involved in the fight, sources told Reuters.
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sources → appear → Reuters
The president told the prince that the US would do everything it can to help with the exception of firing attacks, according to multiple reports.
uncertain
it → tell → reports
Trump told reporters over the weekend that the Houthis had asked the US not to intervene with the situation and that the conflict would be worked out.
“I can just say, it’s going to work out fine and dandy.
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it → tell → situation
It’s going to be very good,” Trump said of the talks.
asserted
Trump → go → talks
The optimistic view stands in contrast to the president’s threats back in July that the US would “beat the f—ing s— out of” Iran and its proxies if they attack Saudi energy infrastructure.
asserted
they → stand → infrastructure
The US has deployed intelligence and military advisers to the kingdom since the new conflict broke out, with Vice President JD Vance telling reporters on Sunday the US has been in talks with the Houthis.
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US → deploy → Houthis
“We’ve been engaged in direct conversations with the Houthis themselves,” Vance said.
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Vance → engage → Houthis
“We actually feel like we are on top of it.
asserted
we → feel → it
It’s a very fluid and dynamic thing.”
asserted
It → ’ → ?
With Post Wires
Houthi forces captured the port city of Mokha and key strategic sites along Yemen's western coast in the past week.
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forces → capture → week
Ships lie anchored off the coast of Yemen in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait.
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Ships → lie → Strait
AFP via Getty Images
The Houthis have been engaged in war with Yemen's internationally-backed government since 2014.
asserted
Houthis → engage → 2014
Iran has been accused of arming and advising the Houthi rebel group, which is acting on behalf of the Islamic republic's wishes in Yemen.
asserted
which → accuse → Yemen
…and 4 more, not listed.
The Aporia
