The Aporia · Prashant Rao

2026-08-25 · Semafor

China, Iran shrug off US threats of economic war

🔮 Beijing largely downplayed Washington’s threats, saying it would “safeguard its own rights and interests.” assertive

2026-08-26 · Semafor

Markets eye Nvidia earnings for insight into tech sector

🔮 But its results will also provide valuable information as to the health of the tech sector: “The indispensable company of the AI economy,” as The Wall Street Journal put it, has deals with Wall Street to deploy $500 billion to finance chip purchases, and is reportedly in talks to provide a $250 billion guarantee for a huge OpenAI data center. mixed

2026-08-28 · Semafor

Markets eye Warsh's speech for interest rate insight

🔮 Economists, executives, and investors will closely watch US Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech today for clues about future central bank policy, and whether he will be more open about his outlook for the economy. mixed

2026-09-05 · Semafor

German far-right set for gains in key elections

🔮 Germany’s anti-immigration, nationalist AfD looks set to emerge as the dominant party in key state elections this weekend, cementing its rise and reshaping of the country’s politics. assertive

2026-09-06 · Semafor

US extends Middle East troop deployments into 2027

🔮 US leaders gave diverging indications of how long the Iran conflict would endure, though the impact on global security and energy markets looked set to persist. assertive

2026-09-07 · Semafor

European bond yields rise amid fears of Middle East tensions

🔮 European bond yields rose on fears that renewed tensions in the Middle East could accelerate inflation, crimping the already tight fiscal space for under-pressure governments across the continent. mixed

2026-09-09 · Semafor

US-Canada trade war escalates amid tit-for-tat tariffs

🔮 The moves follow escalating rhetoric between the pair’s leaders, though a senior Trump administration official said the countries would try to negotiate an offramp from the dispute. assertive

2026-09-11 · Semafor

Israel blows up tunnels operated by Hezbollah

🔮 The latest operation comes just weeks before Israeli parliamentary elections which most polls suggest Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s party is unlikely to win — though the country’s fragmented political scene means he could yet form another coalition government. mixed

2026-09-11 · Semafor

BRICS leaders gather in India amid a reordering of global alliances

🔮 Russia’s president landed in India for a BRICS summit that looks set to underline a broader reordering of global alliances. mixed

2026-09-14 · Semafor

US AI regulation calls gather pace

🔮 Growing calls for AI regulation looked set to dominate the days ahead as Washington took up the issue and frontier labs mulled proposing their own watchdog. assertive

2026-09-15 · Semafor

China's weak economic figures stoke calls for fiscal stimulus

🔮 Authorities have shown little interest in such fiscal stimulus, however, insisting instead that a long-term shift to high-tech sectors will power the economy. assertive

2026-09-15 · Semafor

Israel hits back at UK over trade restrictions

🔮 That cooperation looks set to grow with Canada’s prime minister due to address the European Parliament next week. assertive

2026-09-15 · Semafor

OpenAI and Anthropic eye credit ratings ahead of IPOs

🔮 “Every time we take a deep dive into this sector,” analysts at S&P Global Ratings wrote last week, “we find that capex is rising faster than we anticipated, financings are becoming more complicated and less transparent, and that returns on investment will take years to realize.” mixed

2026-09-15 · Semafor

China’s trade growth accelerates but imports fall short

🔮 China’s trade growth accelerated last month, but data showing imports fell short of analysts’ expectations will likely add to calls for Beijing to rebalance its economy ahead of a high-stakes leaders summit with the US this month. mixed

2026-09-15 · Semafor

Oil nears $100 a barrel after attacks by Yemen's Houthis

🔮 Goldman Sachs raised its oil-price forecast, “reflecting our new assumption that Mideast shipping disruptions continue into 2027.” assertive

2026-09-15 · Semafor

The AfD's weekend victory roils Germany's politics

🔮 Defense officials, meanwhile, fret that a party seen as favorable to the Kremlin could have greater sway in a country that is fast rearming and is the largest single donor to Ukraine. mixed

2026-09-17 · Semafor

Hopes dim for US-China détente during leaders’ summit

🔮 Analysts voiced skepticism that the US and China would agree on AI regulation — or, indeed, any broad-ranging détente during next week’s leaders’ summit. assertive

2026-09-17 · Semafor

Asian economies boom on AI-driven data center demand

🔮 Surging exports are set to drive GDP growth in Malaysia, South Korea, Taiwan, and Vietnam, while Seoul’s and Taipei’s burgeoning tax receipts — thanks to fast-rising corporate profits — are driving government spending, Goldman Sachs economists noted. assertive

2026-09-18 · Semafor

Germany’s Merz under pressure ahead of state elections

🔮 German Chancellor Friedrich Merz faced growing pressure on his leadership ahead of state elections in which polls suggest his governing party will fare badly. assertive

2026-09-18 · Semafor

Tech leaders clash over AI safety regulation

🔮 Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang argued at an event in Scotland that AI should not be regulated like social media, Palantir’s boss told CNBC that leading AI firms may need to be nationalized, and Huawei’s chair called for Chinese labs to accelerate their development. mixed

2026-09-21 · Semafor

Rifts ahead of US-China talks on AI safety

🔮 The US proposed a superpower AI safety mechanism in talks with top Chinese economic officials, but analysts voiced skepticism that Washington and Beijing would reach an accommodation, on this or their countless other disputes. assertive

2026-09-21 · Semafor

Global diplomacy takes center stage in New York

🔮 Global diplomacy takes center stage in New York this week, highlighted by talks between the US and Chinese leaders, even as global conflict looks set to intensify. mixed

2026-09-23 · Semafor

Chinese leader Xi Jinping due for Trump talks

🔮 Chinese leader Xi Jinping arrives in Washington today for talks with US President Donald Trump that are expected to be more pomp than progress. assertive

2026-09-23 · Semafor

Leaders scramble to curb rising fuel prices

🔮 To make matters worse, a second inflationary shock could be in the works, The Wall Street Journal’s chief economics commentator warned, which means interest rates could remain high for longer than expected. mixed

2026-09-23 · Semafor

Anthropic and OpenAI bosses to address the UN

🔮 The heads of Anthropic and OpenAI will brief the UN Security Council today, as their calls for a slowdown in development compete with the interests of superpowers more concerned with winning the AI race. assertive

2026-09-25 · Semafor

Oracle force majeure on US data center showcases AI infrastructure risks

🔮 Officials where the facility is being built have delayed permits necessary to power the project, and Oracle may seek to delay lease payments. mixed

2026-09-25 · Semafor

Trump and Xi conclude Washington visit that was short on substance

🔮 US President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping were set to conclude a superpower summit that was long on ceremony and short on substance. assertive

2026-09-28 · Semafor

Oil prices rise as hope for a US-Iran truce fades

🔮 US President Donald Trump rejected a peace proposal from Iran on Friday; he told Axios he believed talks would resume this week, though The Wall Street Journal reported that he told aides he expects to bomb Iran again after November’s midterms. assertive

2026-09-29 · Semafor

Brussels trains ‘trade bazooka’ at Beijing

🔮 European countries have hardened their stance against Chinese imports over fears that an influx of goods like solar panels and EVs could hollow out the bloc’s industries. mixed

2026-09-30 · Semafor

France plans record bond sale as debt fears grow

🔮 Paris — already grappling with debt equivalent to 119% of GDP — said it would sell a record amount of bonds next year, prompting the spread between French government bonds and their German equivalents to widen, reflecting what investors see as a rising risk premium. assertive

2026-09-30 · Semafor

OpenAI hopes to raise $30B in new funding round

🔮 OpenAI reportedly aims to raise $30 billion in a new funding round valuing the company at $1.4 trillion, underlining how what was set to be a bumper IPO market to end the year is stalling. mixed

2026-10-01 · Semafor

US midterms race on a knife's edge

🔮 US President Donald Trump is set to kick off a month of campaigning, though GOP candidates in tough battles have distanced themselves from a historically unpopular leader. assertive

2026-10-01 · Semafor

Global bond rout gathers pace as debt fears grow

🔮 Economists were also worried about French levels of borrowing, with Paris set to unveil a draft budget today that aims to close a yawning deficit and will likely be politically divisive; France this week announced plans for record bond sales, despite the country’s rising debt-to-GDP ratio. assertive

2026-10-06 · Semafor

France student protests roil politics ahead of elections

🔮 Germany and Spain face their own political turmoil: The former is in deadlock over tax proposals that, alongside a string of election embarrassments, threaten the governing coalition and could lead to the chancellor being ousted; the latter will hold snap elections after a key housing law failed in parliament. mixed

2026-10-06 · Semafor

Calls for AI regulation grow as experts warn of dystopian future

🔮 Writing in the Financial Times, one of the so-called godfathers of AI argued that it “should be approached like other critical technologies including medicine, aviation, and nuclear energy,” while the UN rights chief warned that unchecked AI development could let “dystopia creep in unnoticed” by undermining equality, freedom, and privacy. mixed

2026-10-06 · Semafor

EU readies for China trade clash, as frustration grows over imbalance

🔮 The urgency of their push comes as major European companies undergo huge job losses — Volkswagen plans to cut 100,000 workers — which experts have said could drive political upheaval. mixed

2026-10-06 · Semafor

Record high borrowing costs roil US economy

🔮 Goldman Sachs economists warned that elevated yields could cut US GDP growth by 0.2 percentage points next year, threaten the stock boom, and force the government to prioritize deficit reduction. mixed

2026-10-08 · Semafor

EU-China trade war looms closer

🔮 Europe’s trade deficit with China has sparked growing alarm on the continent, which fears Chinese goods will hollow out its industries, driving job losses and economic anxiety that ultimately fuel the rise of nationalist parties. mixed

2026-10-08 · Semafor

France’s challenges mount over ballooning debt

🔮 The challenges are manifold: “Rising debt levels, persistent fiscal slippage, elevated borrowing costs, and political uncertainty [will] increasingly test the credibility of France’s fiscal strategy ahead of the 2027 presidential election,” a Morningstar analyst wrote in a note to clients. assertive

2026-10-08 · Semafor

Oil prices surge after second day of Houthi strikes on Riyadh

🔮 Even the release of stockpiles announced this week by the International Energy Agency was initially overstated: JP Morgan analysts said governments were, for now, more constrained by their willingness to use those stores than their overall size. assertive

2026-10-09 · Semafor

Russia set to spend record $200B on defense in 2026

🔮 Russia can likely keep paying for the war by printing money, a leading analyst told Meduza, but ultimately, its people will pay the price: assertive

2026-10-09 · Semafor

India hits out at Washington criticism as ties fray further

🔮 “AI, it seems, could provide even more value, for even less cost.” assertive

2026-10-15 · Semafor

Ukraine to restart strikes on Russian refineries

🔮 Washington has pressed Zelenskyy to curb attacks on energy facilities, linking them to the rising price of US fuel in the run-up to midterm elections, where Republicans are expected to fare poorly. assertive

2026-10-16 · Semafor

Taipei restricts China chip sales to appease the US

🔮 Taiwan is set to tighten controls on selling cutting-edge AI chips to China in order to win favor with the US, though breakthroughs by Chinese firms suggest Washington’s efforts to contain their development are failing. assertive

2026-10-19 · Semafor

China’s third quarter GDP beats forecasts, though worries abound

🔮 Though broadly upbeat, the data will likely amplify calls abroad for Beijing to do more to stoke consumption, with growing political frustration — particularly in the West — over what critics say is China’s overcapacity hollowing out industries in other countries. assertive

2026-10-21 · Semafor

Breach of Paris Agreement global warming level ‘inevitable,’ UN says

🔮 Overall global warming is now likely to be between 2.6℃ and 2.8℃ by the end of the century, the UN Environment Programme predicted. assertive

2026-10-21 · Semafor

Anthropic plans $750 billion compute spend

🔮 The figures, cited in a prospectus obtained by The Wall Street Journal, come as the company builds towards an IPO that could value it at $2 trillion. speculative

2026-10-21 · Semafor

SpaceX and Tesla mega-merger under discussion

🔮 Elon Musk’s companies, SpaceX and Tesla, have begun exploring a merger that would create a $3.5 trillion corporate giant spanning key sectors of cutting-edge technology. assertive

2026-10-23 · Semafor

France braces ahead of planned weekend protests

🔮 The unrest has huge domestic and international implications: Analysts argue the violence bolsters the case made by the far-right — the favorite in 2027 elections — that the current leadership is ineffective, while foreign investors, who hold the majority of France’s mammoth government debt, may grow skeptical that Paris can get to grips with its budget. mixed

2026-10-23 · Semafor

US Treasurys gained in investors’ flight to safety

🔮 Markets have grown worried that Big Tech firms will not make sufficient money to cover their ballooning investments and are running into supply-chain bottlenecks in their huge infrastructure buildout: OpenAI has reportedly lowered its target valuation, South Korean chip giant SK Hynix pulled a planned IPO of one of its units, and an HSBC survey of hundreds of investors showed a majority expect “a meaningful slowdown in AI infrastructure spending” within the next 12 months. speculative

2026-10-27 · Semafor

Netherlands to slash state jobs as part of AI-related savings

🔮 The Netherlands said it would cut 25,000 government jobs as part of AI-related savings, among the more aggressive moves yet set out by states seeking to adapt to the technology. assertive

2026-10-27 · Semafor

Divided Israelis heads to the polls for first election since Oct 7

🔮 If anything, “a shift in tone might be the biggest foreign policy change,” experts at the Council on Foreign Relations noted. mixed

2026-10-28 · Semafor

Netanyahu's coalition draws ahead in Israel's tight election race

🔮 Critics argued the results signaled voter disillusionment with Netanyahu’s leadership, but it was not clear the opposition bloc would be able to muster the support necessary to take power either. assertive

2026-10-28 · Semafor

South Korean chip giant SK Hynix's 3Q profits surge

🔮 Goldman Sachs upped its forecasts for expansion this year and next as a result. mixed

2026-10-29 · Semafor

US, Gulf states launch fresh diplomatic push to end Iran war

🔮 The US vice president reportedly wrote to the head of Iran’s top security body to restart truce talks, Gulf states are driving a deal to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran’s foreign minister said Tehran would “give diplomacy a chance.” mixed

2026-10-29 · Semafor

European Central Bank chief Christine Lagarde to step down

🔮 The European Central Bank announced on Wednesday that President Christine Lagarde will step down from the job in February, eight months before her tenure was set to end, formalizing a move that had been rumored since the beginning of this year. assertive

Forward-looking sentences extracted from their articles, oldest first. Nothing here checks whether any of it turned out to be right.

👤 Prashant Rao

About this journalist

What they cover

Leaning

More from this journalist

What they said would happen