2026-10-21 · The Straits Times
🔮 Global diesel prices seen staying high despite Trump’s deal with Russia
AI generated
NEW YORK - US President Donald Trump’s deal with Russia to supply diesel to US and global markets is unlikely to meaningfully lower diesel prices, market watchers and analysts said, noting that the promised volumes are too small to ease a global supply squeeze.
Diesel prices have shot to record highs during the US-Israeli war on Iran, creating a political liability for Trump and his Republican party as they campaign to maintain thin majorities in the US Congress in the Nov 3 midterm elections.
Critics of Trump’s move said lifting sanctions on Russian diesel could help Moscow fund further attacks on Ukraine, undermining years of efforts to curb Russian energy revenues and raising the risk the Kremlin could profit while consumers get little relief from high fuel prices.
Trump said Russia would immediately export 300,000 metric tons, or 2.25 million barrels, followed by 500,000 tons in November and 1 million tons “immediately thereafter”.
Analysts have said it may not be possible for Russia to produce enough excess diesel in the near-term to meet those ambitious goals, while a strained global tanker market may also make timely shipments difficult.
Analysts also said the announced volumes are unlikely to meaningfully lower diesel prices.
US retail diesel prices topped US$6 a gallon in September for the first time ever and have remained above that level since.
Big promises, limited impact
Michelle Brouhard, head of policy and geopolitical risk at Kpler, said it would take an additional 400,000 barrels per day of diesel supply to materially ease prices in the current market.
But the initial shipment of roughly 2.2 million barrels would amount to only about 73,000 bpd if distributed over a month.
She said that volume on its own would probably not significantly affect global diesel prices.
Caspian Conran, lead economist at consulting firm Baringa, estimated that the market would require an additional 850,000 bpd of supply to produce an immediate softening in prices.
Trump initially said Russia would immediately supply diesel to the US and global markets to help bring down fuel prices, but later said the Russian cargoes would be released to global markets rather than shipped to the US.
This raised questions about whether the deal will deliver the domestic supply relief the president promised.
“The diesel that Putin was going to sell, they were going to make it available to the global market one way or the other,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio said over the weekend. mixed
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