The Parti Québécois’s commitment to a third referendum on independence took centre stage in the Quebec election campaign this week, despite the party’s best efforts to shift the attention of a nervous electorate away from the question of sovereignty.
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commitment → take → sovereignty
On Friday, the PQ confirmed it will cost at least $130-million to hold an independence referendum in a first mandate, as Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has promised to do if his party forms government on Oct. 5.
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party → confirm → Oct.
Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon also said this week that he would pursue a referendum even without a majority government – a challenging proposition that would require support from members of opposition parties.
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that → say → parties
Meanwhile, Christine Fréchette, leader of the governing Coalition Avenir Québec and Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon’s chief rival, tripped up over the independence question this week when she refused – not for the first time – to say if she is a sovereigntist despite her opposition to a referendum.
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she → govern → referendum
Sovereignty is broadly unpopular in Quebec, with support for independence stuck around 30 per cent as the escalating Canada-U.S. trade war looms over the campaign.
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war → stick → campaign
Last month, Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon announced he would not hold a referendum until after U.S. President Donald Trump leaves office.
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Trump → announce → office
Mr. Trump’s current term is meant to end Jan. 20, 2029.
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term → mean → ?
The move was the PQ Leader’s bid to focus the campaign elsewhere.
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move → focus → campaign
For a while, that seemed to work.
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that → seem → while
In the early days of the campaign, other issues were shunted aside as the major party leaders jockeyed to position themselves as best equipped to defend Quebec’s interests against a hostile U.S. administration.
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leaders → shunt → administration
But the PQ Leader faced repeated questions this week about his insistence on a referendum.
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Leader → face → referendum
In an interview with The Canadian Press published Friday, he said the party has budgeted $20-million for a travelling commission that would consult on the adoption of a provisional constitution.
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that → publish → constitution
Holding a referendum in 2029 or 2030 would cost at least $110-million, he said.
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he → hold → million
The party has confirmed the figures to The Globe and Mail.
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party → confirm → Globe
The PQ has been leading in the polls for the better part of three years, but currently seems unlikely to form a majority government.
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PQ → lead → government
Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon maintained several times this week that his commitment to a referendum would not change in a minority context.
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commitment → maintain → context
“I think I have a responsibility to keep my promises,” he told a panel of Radio-Canada journalists during a televised event Wednesday featuring interviews with each of the five main party leaders.
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he → think → leaders
In Quebec, the National Assembly must adopt the text of a referendum question drafted by the government, meaning a PQ minority would require support from opposition parties to trigger a vote on independence.
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minority → adopt → independence
Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon suggested that some members of the nationalist CAQ, the sovereigntist Québec Solidaire and the Quebec Conservatives could support a PQ minority.
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members → suggest → minority
“There are plenty of scenarios,” he said.
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he → be → scenarios
However, Conservative Leader Éric Duhaime was quick to say this week that if his party holds the balance of power in a minority government, he would “block any referendum project.”
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he → say → project
The Conservatives are projected to win seats in the provincial legislature for the first time this fall.
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Conservatives → project → time
Ms. Fréchette has also said repeatedly that this would be the “worst moment” in the 50 years since the Parti Québécois first formed government to hold a referendum, given the tariff war with the United States.
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Québécois → say → States
But on Thursday, she refused to say whether she herself remains a sovereigntist.
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she → refuse → Thursday
“My personal position doesn’t matter,” she told reporters.
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she → matter → reporters
Ms. Fréchette worked as a staffer for the Parti Québécois between 2012 and 2014.
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Fréchette → work → 2012
This is not the first time she has refused to say how she would vote in a third referendum on independence.
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she → refuse → independence
“What I’ve observed is that 70 per cent of Quebeckers don’t want a referendum,” she said in a video posted later to social media.
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she → observe → media
Liberal Leader Charles Milliard, who has cast his party as the only federalist option, demanded that Ms. Fréchette clarify her position, calling her answer “shameful.”
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Fréchette → cast → answer
When QS Leader Ruba Ghazal was asked if she would support the PQ’s sovereignty referendum, she said her party would campaign for an independent Quebec, but also advocate for broad public consultations to ensure “everyone is on board.”
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everyone → ask → board
The “most plausible ally” for the PQ in launching a referendum is the QS, said Patrick Taillon, professor of constitutional law at Laval University.
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Taillon → launch → University
However, given their strong disagreements over everything from government spending to immigration, and QS’s weaker emphasis on independence as opposed to social justice, there is no guarantee the parties would work together on a referendum project.
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parties → give → project
It is also unclear how many of their 11 seats QS will retain after the election, given the party’s weak position in the polls currently.
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QS → retain → polls
On top of unreliable support in the legislature, the PQ faces a number of self-imposed hurdles to launching a referendum in its first mandate, Prof. Taillon noted.
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Taillon → face → mandate
“The PQ’s roadmap includes several steps before the referendum: consultations on a provisional constitution, adoption of that constitution by the National Assembly, and dialogue with First Nations.
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roadmap → include → Nations
Even apart from the question of a minority government, this represents a fairly demanding timetable.”
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this → represent → timetable
The Aporia
