In 2022, Democrat Wiley Nickel ran as a moderate and narrowly won North Carolina’s 13th Congressional District by about 9,000 votes.
asserted
Nickel → run → votes
Two years later, the current congressman, Republican Brad Knott, ran as a conservative and coasted into the U.S. House by more than 70,000 votes.
asserted
congressman → run → votes
Voters didn’t change their minds.
asserted
Voters → change → minds
Politicians changed their voters.
asserted
Politicians → change → voters
The Republican-controlled legislature redrew the state’s congressional map to transform what was one of the last remaining swing districts in the South to a safe GOP seat.
asserted
what → control → seat
Lawmakers split the rectangular 13th District into an hourglass shape that carved out Democratic voters in Raleigh and replaced them with a swath of rural counties reaching up to the Virginia border.
asserted
that → split → border
Swing seats, meaning a district that a presidential candidate won by 5 percentage points or fewer in the previous election, are disappearing from the national map.
asserted
candidate → mean → map
For decades after World War II, the number of competitive seats in the House slowly eroded as the United States grew more polarized, voters were less likely to split their ticket between parties and people moved closer to like-minded neighbors, creating Democratic strongholds in urban areas and Republicans ones across rural America.
asserted
people → erode → America
That decline accelerated over the past year after Republican President Donald Trump sparked a partisan redistricting battle.
asserted
Trump → accelerate → battle
The number of swing districts fell from 45 to 37.
asserted
number → fall → 37
There were 96 House seats that fit the modern definition of a swing seat in 1964, according to one count from the 1970s, when the shrinking number of such districts was first noted.
uncertain
number → be → districts
That means the overwhelming majority of House seats are effectively won in primaries, with the support of only a fraction of voters who usually are at the extreme ideological end of their party.
asserted
who → mean → party
Nickel saw the impact firsthand during his lone term in Washington.
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Nickel → see → Washington
“The biggest divide I found in Congress wasn’t Democrat versus Republican, it was safe seats versus competitive seats,” Nickel said.
asserted
Nickel → find → seats
“When your focus is on running a campaign where you talk to every single voter, you look at things differently and your focus is on solving problems.”
asserted
focus → run → problems
Unite America, an organization pushing alternatives to party primaries, calculated that 87% of the representatives elected to the House in 2024 were chosen by 7% of the country’s voters.
asserted
% → push → voters
“Voters don’t have any way of holding Congress responsible, except for a narrow window of swing districts,” Nick Troiano, the group’s executive director, said in an interview, adding that he expects things to get worse in November.
asserted
things → have → November
“The least competitive election of our lifetimes will lead to the least accountable and least representative Congress of our lifetimes.”
asserted
election → lead → lifetimes
A narrow battlefield expands slightly in unpredictable midterm year
Republicans are hoping the smaller number of competitive seats puts a low ceiling on what Democrats can win on Nov. 3.
asserted
Democrats → expand → Nov.
“Both sides are fighting over a narrow House battlefield,” said Mike Marinella, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Campaign.
asserted
Marinella → fight → Campaign
“It’s a knife fight in a dark alley.
asserted
It → ’ → alley
Democrats have expanded their political targets, given the unpopular war with Iran and voters angry about high prices.
asserted
Democrats → expand → prices
Both parties are spending on campaigns in Republican area that normally would not be competitive.
asserted
that → spend → area
Even in what is shaping up as a difficult political environment, however, Republicans are protected by the limited number of seats in play.
“Even if there’s the kind of swing we got in 2006, there’s not going to be 40 seats changing hands.
asserted
we → shape → hands
There’s going to be 20 seats changing hands,” said Ian Shapiro, a Yale political scientist.
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Shapiro → go → hands
There is a long-standing debate among academics as to how much of the decline can be blamed on partisan-motivated redistricting, known as gerrymandering, and how much on Americans’ increasing proclivity to live among like-minded people who vote the same way.
asserted
who → be → people
Multiple studies have found that without partisan gerrymandering, the House would have about double the number of competitive seats it has now.
asserted
it → find → seats
One thing most agree on is that the diminishment of competitive seats leads to greater polarization because legislators are only beholden to primary voters.
asserted
legislators → agree → voters
“It produces more alienation because Congress doesn’t do anything besides investigations and positioning,” Shapiro said.
asserted
Shapiro → produce → investigations
Studying the math and making a decision
asserted
Studying → study → decision
Nickel decided not to run for reelection after studying election returns going back to 2016 and finding that no Democratic incumbent had held on in a seat where Trump took 55% or more of the vote.
asserted
Trump → decide → vote
Trump received 58% of the vote in the new district.
asserted
Trump → receive → district
Nickel, who had introduced a bill to require all states to use a nonpartisan redistricting system, said at first he would run for U.S. Senate because statewide seats cannot be gerrymandered.
asserted
seats → introduce → Senate
But when former Gov. Roy Cooper announced he was running for the Democratic nomination, Nickel switched to run for district attorney of Wake County, the deeply Democratic county that was largely cut out of the 13th District.
asserted
that → announce → District
Nickel won the Democratic primary and will take office in January.
asserted
Nickel → win → January
No Republican ran.
asserted
Republican → run → ?
That highlights how North Carolina, and the country, have effectively become segregated by political party.
“If you just draw big blocks around a state, you’re going to get noncompetitive districts because we are so polarized,” said Joshua Huder, a political scientist at Georgetown University.
asserted
Huder → highlight → University
An hour away, a very different state
Only 15% of North Carolina’s voting precincts could be classified as politically competitive, according to Michael Bitzer, a political scientist at Catawba College in North Carolina.
uncertain
% → classify → Carolina
“For the average North Carolinian, depending on where they live, if they drive an hour in any direction they will be in a very different North Carolina than they live in,” he said.
asserted
he → depend → Carolina
That certainly is the case traversing from the old 13th District to the new one.
asserted
That → traverse → one
…and 26 more, not listed.
The Aporia
