Brazilians began voting in Sunday's (October 25, 2026) polarising presidential election between incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flavio Bolsonaro, a contest that will determine whether the U.S. will significantly expand its growing influence in Latin America.
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U.S. → begin → America
Polls before Sunday's (October 25) vote showed the two candidates, who need more than 50% of the vote to become Brazil's next leader in January, in a neck-and-neck race.
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who → show → race
The election pits the left-of-centre veteran politician Mr. Lula against Mr. Bolsonaro, an ally of U.S. President Donald Trump and the son of imprisoned former President Jair Bolsonaro.
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election → pit → Bolsonaro
Flávio Bolsonaro bested Mr. Lula by more than 2.2 million votes in the first round of the election earlier this month.
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Bolsonaro → best → election
More than 33 million voters out of nearly 160 million did not turn out.
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voters → turn → million
Mr. Bolsonaro and Mr. Lula have opposing ideological views on issues ranging from U.S.-Brazil relations and climate change to social welfare.
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Bolsonaro → have → welfare
A win for Mr. Bolsonaro would signify a pivot to the right by Latin America's most populous country and its largest economy in a year when Trump allies have notched victories in Chile, Peru and Colombia.
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allies → signify → Chile
A victory for Mr. Lula would leave Brazil and Mexico, which is the region's second-most populous country and led by President Claudia Sheinbaum, with left-of-centre leaders.
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which → leave → leaders
In many ways, Brazil's runoff vote resembles a rematch between the country's two polarized political forces that trigger passion as much as loathing.
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that → resemble → loathing
Four years ago, Mr. Lula beat Mr. Bolsonaro's father by the narrowest margin since the country's return to democracy in 1985.
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Lula → beat → 1985
Polls suggest that this election will be even closer.
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election → suggest → ?
Security and cost of living concerns
Mr. Lula, who first governed the country between 2003 and 2010, has faced a tough reelection battle because of concerns about the cost of living and security.
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who → govern → living
Flávio Bolsonaro made a tough-on-crime approach the cornerstone of his campaign and pledged to bring down food costs.
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approach → make → costs
Both have been hit by corruption suspicions involving family members and allies, with Mr. Bolsonaro implicated in a sprawling scandal rocking Brazil.
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Bolsonaro → hit → Brazil
Mr. Lula spent more than a year in prison on corruption convictions that were eventually annulled.
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that → spend → convictions
Mr. Bolsonaro's admission that he accepted about $12 million from disgraced former banker Daniel Vorcaro to produce a film on his father's life has cast a shadow over his campaign.
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he → accept → campaign
In the lead-up to the vote, Mr. Lula frequently portrayed Mr. Bolsonaro, whose father is under house arrest for attempting a coup, as a threat to democracy.
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father → portray → democracy
Mr. Bolsonaro has promised to seek an amnesty for his father if elected.
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Bolsonaro → promise → father
The next President will name at least three Supreme Court justices out of 11 in his next term due to upcoming retirements.
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President → name → retirements
Mr. Bolsonaro has long taken aim at the country's top court — which has been rocked by a corruption scandal — and promised to push for judiciary reform.
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which → take → reform
Mr. Lula, trying to lure undecided voters, has invested in costly incentives since he lost the first round of voting.
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he → try → voting
His government's most recent moves have been endorsing a debt relief program for small businesses and promising free public transportation on weekends.
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moves → endorse → weekends
A win for the incumbent came with the Senate's approval of the six-day working week — a popular proposal backed by the government.
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win → come → government
The Trump administration has loomed large
Mr. Lula has criticised the U.S. President before Brazil's election, speaking about the risks of U.S. intervention in Brazilian elections after the Trump administration imposed high tariffs against Brazilian exports, sanctioned a Supreme Court justice who chaired the investigation that ended up resulting in the sentencing of Jair Bolsonaro and classified drug-trafficking groups as foreign terrorist organizations, which experts say may have been intended to make Lula look soft on crime.
Flávio Bolsonaro has touted his proximity to the White House and insisted that Brazil needs to strike better deals with the Trump administration, including the rare minerals economy.
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Brazil → loom → economy
Brazil estimates that its deposits hold up to 21 million tons, second only to China.
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deposits → estimate → China
He denies he's being helped by the U.S. government.
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he → deny → government
Voting in Brazil is conducted electronically and the result is usually available within hours after polling stations close at 5 p.m. Brasilia time (2000 GMT).
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stations → conduct → p.m.
The Aporia
