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Trump’s favorite CNN pollster warns of a Democratic midterm ‘blowout’

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Cite

Keane, I. (2026, October 26). Trump’s favorite CNN pollster warns of a Democratic midterm ‘blowout’. The Independent. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/harry-enten-cnn-democrat-midterm-blowout-b3073596.html

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The Independent · collected 2026-10-26 · by Isabel Keane

Quick Summary

CNN pollster Harry Enten warns of a Democratic "blowout" in the upcoming midterm elections, citing thousands of polls and data points. He predicts Democrats have a 69% chance of winning more than 230 House seats, compared to Republicans having only a 2% chance of achieving a similar outcome. Additionally, Enten estimates there is a 57% probability that Democrats will secure at least 52 Senate seats, indicating significant electoral challenges for the Republican Party due to President Trump's declining approval ratings and other factors like economic concerns.
Written by AI on 2026-10-26, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

AI analysis

Story summary

Harry Enten, CNN's chief data analyst and President Donald Trump's favorite pollster, warned on October 26, 2026, that Democrats have a strong chance of achieving a significant victory over Republicans in the upcoming midterm elections. According to Enten’s analysis based on "thousands" of polls, Democrats have a 69 percent probability of winning a substantial number of seats. Specifically, the predicted House seats for Democrats increased from 232 in August to 238 by October, suggesting a Democratic “blowout.” Despite Trump's promotion of Enten’s work among his MAGA base, Enten emphasized that data points dictate this prediction and urged not to misinterpret these results.

Written for “Trump Pollster Warns Of Democratic Blowout” on 2026-11-04, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.

Story

📰 Trump Pollster Warns Of Democratic Blowout
Politics · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

Compared with similar articles

This article reads unscored and hedges 3% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
The Hindu
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 1 of 42 claims Outlet record 77/100
“The articles discuss different timeframes and aspects of the midterm elections; Article A focuses on the overall situation and predicts outcomes based on polls, while Article B specifically mentions Trump's favorite pollster warning about a Democratic 'blowout'.”
Morning news brief Different event
NPR
Hedges 0 of 4 claims Outlet record 60/100
“The articles discuss different polls (CNN and NPR) and do not describe the same specific incident or time.”
Al Jazeera
Hedges 6 of 52 claims Outlet record 60/100
“The articles cover different time periods and aspects of the midterm election campaign, not a single specific incident.”
NBC News
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 14 of 80 claims Outlet record 78/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of potential election outcomes and do not describe a single specific event.”
CBS News
Hedges 0 of 1 claims Outlet record 65/100
“The articles discuss different pollsters and trackers for midterm elections, with distinct viewpoints and outlets.”
Daily Mail
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 2 of 25 claims Outlet record 69/100
“The articles discuss different polls and perspectives on the midterm elections, with distinct sources and analyses.”
The Straits Times
Hedges 5 of 34 claims Outlet record 66/100
“The articles describe different aspects of the midterm election campaign: one focuses on a pollster's prediction, while the other covers interactions between Trump and Obama during the closing week of the election.”
Daily Mail
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 4 of 20 claims Outlet record 69/100
“The articles discuss different polls and their predictions for the Democratic performance in the midterms, not a single specific incident or occurrence.”
The Bulwark
Hedges 2 of 13 claims
“The articles discuss different aspects of Harry Enten's polling analysis, with Article A focusing on a warning about Democratic success in midterms and Article B discussing specifics for Election Day.”
The Bulwark
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 1 of 20 claims
“Article A discusses hypothetical scenarios for a potential Democratic win in midterm elections, while Article B reports on CNN pollster Harry Enten's warnings about a likely Democratic 'blowout' based on polling data.”
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
36
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
3%
1 of 36 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
withheld
no quote in the article backed the model's score
Publisher signals
59/100
The Independent's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
1
Politics
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-10-26 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

The Independent · 3647 article(s) · 10 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 10 correction(s)

Who wrote this

Isabel Keane
88 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 Some polls are open for Tuesday’s crucial midterm elections, which will decide majority control of Congress for the final two years of Donald Trump’s presidency.
🔮 Election guru Steve Kornacki found one set of data that may give President Donald Trump and Republicans a reason to be hopeful ahead of Tuesday’s midterm elections.
🔮 “The easy thing to do would be to just immediately refund people, and if there were issues with certain refunds, deal with those consumers individually, and that didn’t happen here,” Roberts told the outlet.
🔮 President Donald Trump said he would be willing to protect Elon Musk and his staff if Democrats take control of Congress after the midterm elections this week.
🔮 Judd said investigators are reviewing whether any additional children may have been victimized in connection with one of the people arrested, who authorities said was a youth football coach.
🔮 An aging NASA telescope is expected to crash back down to Earth this week.
🔮 President Donald Trump was briefed by top military officials on options for Iran, as administration officials gave Arab Gulf states a heads-up that attacks would resume after the midterm elections, according to a report.
🔮 While Trump was supposed to appear at a rally in Kansas on Saturday, he canceled that appearance and will instead participate in a series of virtual rallies.
🔮 The former president’s speechwriter, Jon Favreau, joked in response: “Would anyone else on the right like to keep this going for another few days or no?”
🔮 Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee suggested that convicted murderer Christa Pike’s death sentence will likely remain the same unless challenged by the courts — one month after her failed execution.
Also by Isabel Keane
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 88 articles by Isabel Keane →

Topics

CNN Democrats House Republicans Senate

Subjects

Enten PERSON · 15× Democrats NORP · 9× Senate ORG · 8× Republicans NORP · 7× Trump PERSON · 6× CNN ORG · 4× House ORG · 3× Harry Enten PERSON · 2× Michigan GPE · 2× United States GPE · 2×

Narrative

“The best person on CNN is Pollster Harry Enten, because he was willing to show that Donald J. Trump is six times more popular than Abraham Lincoln, George Washinton, or any other President — He’s got Credibility (Don’t fire him!)” Trump wrote on Truth Social in September.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-10-26
🔮 Enten, who is CNN’s chief data analyst, noted that the number of House seats predicted to be won by Democrats had increased from 232 in August to 238 in October.
2026-10-26 · The Independent
Trump’s favorite CNN pollster warns of a Democratic midterm ‘blowout’ · assertive framing

Claims (36 extracted, 1 hedged)

President Donald Trump’s favorite CNN pollster, Harry Enten, has warned of a Democratic “blowout” over Republicans in the midterm elections as both parties fight to take control of Congress. asserted
parties → warn → Congress
On his midterms blitz of the country, Trump has taken to sharing clips of Enten touting high approval numbers among the president’s MAGA base. asserted
Enten → take → base
But Enten said that he has poured over “thousands” of polls that suggest the Democrats have a 69 percent chance of “blowing out the Republicans” next week. asserted
Democrats → say → Republicans
“The midterms are just days away and I’m pouring over hundreds, no, thousands, of polls and data points,” Enten said Sunday. asserted
Enten → pour → polls
“And you know what the numbers are telling me? asserted
numbers → know → me
They are telling me that we are heading towards blowout territory! asserted
we → tell → territory
And of course, don’t be angry with me because the numbers do the talking and I just listen.” asserted
I → do → talking
Enten, who is CNN’s chief data analyst, noted that the number of House seats predicted to be won by Democrats had increased from 232 in August to 238 in October. asserted
number → note → October
The pollster explained that as Trump’s net approval rating continues to fall—hitting -35 in October, according to Reuters/Ipsos polling averages—the Republicans are likely to lose seats on Election Day, November 3. uncertain
Republicans → explain → Day
Now, there’s a 29 percent chance that doesn’t happen, right? asserted
that → ’ → ?
But 71 percent things happen more often than 29 percent things! asserted
things → happen → things
I know enough math to know that,” Enten said before explaining what it means for both parties. “ asserted
it → know → parties
Well, the chance that the party gets to at least 230 House seats — look, Republicans, the chance that they blow out the Democrats, really, it’s two percent,” he said. asserted
he → get → Democrats
Enten continued: “We haven’t seen the type of error necessary for Republicans to actually blow out the Democrats… asserted
Republicans → continue → Democrats
What we’re talking about here is that Democrats are really the ones who have the real chance of blowing out the Republicans. asserted
who → talk → Republicans
The data guru noted that the Senate race is “what I think a lot of folks are really interested in.” asserted
lot → note → folks
He noted that there are currently several states where Democrats are leading in the polls for Senate races, including Iowa, Maine, Texas, Michigan and Ohio. asserted
Democrats → note → Iowa
Enten said that this data, combined with Trump’s historically low approval rating and Americans’ concerns over prices amid the Iran war, spells trouble for the GOP. asserted
data → say → GOP
“You put it all together. asserted
You → put → it
What’s the chance that Democrats win at least 52 seats, 52 Senate seats?” Enten asked. asserted
Enten → ’ → seats
“It’s a 57 percent chance that Democrats win not just a majority in the United States Senate, but a majority with room to spare in the United States Senate,” he said. asserted
he → ’ → Senate
Enten noted that Republicans also have a chance to blow out the Democrats in the Senate, albeit a much smaller percentage at just 24 percent. asserted
Republicans → note → percent
Enten then said he predicts there is an 81 percent chance one of the parties — Democrat or Republican — wins the Senate with room to spare. asserted
one → say → room
“Chances are, one of the parties is going to win with at least one seat to spare,” Enten concluded, noting there are still “days to go” until Election Day. asserted
Enten → go → Day
Enten’s Sunday polling update comes as Trump was in Michigan Sunday to campaign for Senate candidate Mike Rogers as part of his month-long midterm campaign rally blitz. asserted
Trump → come → blitz
The 80-year-old president has praised Enten despite his longstanding feud with CNN. asserted
president → praise → CNN
While Trump has long deemed the network “fake news,” he has taken to sharing clips of Enten on the campaign trail. asserted
he → deem → trail
“The best person on CNN is Pollster Harry Enten, because he was willing to show that Donald J. Trump is six times more popular than Abraham Lincoln, George Washinton, or any other President — He’s got Credibility (Don’t fire him!)” Trump wrote on Truth Social in September. asserted
Trump → show → September
The positive review of Enten came after the data guru declared a “reality check” for left-leaning viewers on Trump’s popularity. asserted
guru → come → popularity
That is, Donald Trump is still the sun on which the planets of the GOP revolve around,” Enten said in September. asserted
Enten → revolve → September
However, Trump’s polling numbers this month have even left Enten shocked. asserted
numbers → leave → Enten
While appearing on News Central on Tuesday, Enten highlighted the latest Reuters-Ipsos survey that put the president’s approval rating at just 31 percent — the lowest recorded across either of his two terms. asserted
that → appear → terms
“I mean this is a five-alarm Trumpster fire, that’s what we’re talking about,” Enten said. asserted
Enten → mean → what
The analyst noted that Trump began his first term with a net approval rating of plus six percentage points, but now that figure is minus 35 points. asserted
figure → note → points
“Among independents, he’s 54 points underwater,” Enten added. asserted
Enten → ’ → independents
“I mean this is down there with Jacques Cousteau and The Little Mermaid. asserted
this → mean → Cousteau
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