In the next week, two sets of elections will be held on two continents, the outcomes of which could have profound consequences for the world.
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outcomes → hold → world
By a fluke of electoral timetabling, millions of voters around 6,000 miles apart will unite in exercising their democratic rights within days of each other.
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millions → unite → other
Voters in Israel go to the polls on Tuesday to elect a new parliament; a week later, voters in the United States will elect a new Congress.
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voters → go → Congress
A former speaker of that Congress, Tip O'Neill, may have once said that "all politics is local".
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politics → say → Congress
For these elections are not just proximate, they are intertwined.
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they → intertwine → ?
The future governance of Israel will have a lasting impact on the Middle East and wars raging across the region.
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governance → have → region
And any change in the electoral map of America could shape not just those wars but also the future of the global economy.
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change → shape → economy
Between the two there is a physical connection: the lobby group Republicans Overseas Israel estimates about half a million Israelis with American passports can vote in both polls.
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Israelis → be → polls
Marc Zell, the group's chairman, said these electors could influence tight races in the US, such as the Michigan senatorial contest, in which he estimated 10,000 absentee ballots would be cast from Israel.
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ballots → say → Israel
"They can really make a difference," he told the BBC.
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he → make → BBC
But the policy connection is perhaps deeper - and most acute regarding the US-Israeli war on Iran.
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connection → regard → Iran
The massive aerial attack, which began in February, destroyed many military targets and killed much of Iran's leadership.
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which → begin → leadership
But it failed to overthrow the regime which hit back hard across the Gulf and seized control of the Strait of Hormuz and much of the world's energy supply.
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which → fail → supply
The Iran question
The sheer fact of the elections has already shaped decision-making.
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fact → shape → making
Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has used the campaign to talk up the possibility of launching a fresh attack on Iran.
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Netanyahu → use → Iran
He has made new claims – without providing evidence – about Iran's nuclear threat, insisting again the Islamic regime must be overthrown.
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regime → make → threat
His aim: to shore up his reputation as a security leader, which took such a battering after the deadly 7 October Hamas-led attacks on Israel.
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which → shore → Israel
US President Donald Trump has added to the speculation of renewed attacks on Iran by endorsing Netanyahu's re-election campaign, saying both men should "soon finish the job" in Iran.
Yet for all the sabre-rattling, there have also been contradictory reports that Trump intervened to restrain Netanyahu from attacking Iran before polling day, fearing a fresh spike in energy prices would remind US voters of his unpopular war.
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spike → add → war
So might an attack on Iran, then, be delayed until after the elections?
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attack → delay → elections
Israel's media is full of speculation Netanyahu could try to engineer his survival by attacking Iran as caretaker prime minister after the election.
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Netanyahu → try → election
He would argue, so the theory goes, for a government of national unity – involving him – rather than a coalition between opposition parties.
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theory → argue → parties
Netanyahu has long been seen as a great survivor of Israeli politics.
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Netanyahu → see → politics
If he were to lose power, he would face an official inquiry into his actions before the October 7 attacks and renewed legal proceedings involving allegations of corruption.
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he → lose → corruption
So real is this speculation that Netanyahu's rival, the former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, has already ruled out joining any unity government.
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rival → rule → government
Like all mainstream Israeli politicians, Eisenkot sees Iran as an existential threat to Israel and supports military action against the Islamic regime.
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Eisenkot → see → regime
But he has explicitly warned against escalating the war for political purposes.
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he → warn → purposes
Certainly, Trump may be more willing to attack Iran after the midterms if he is unconstrained electorally and hoping to extract himself from the war with one more push.
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he → attack → push
Some analysts believe Iran is so economically weak from the war and economic sanctions that a fresh round of military strikes might encourage Iranians to overthrow the regime.
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round → believe → regime
Others see this as yet more wishful thinking.
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Others → see → thinking
It is a strategy that has repeatedly failed, but still has currency in Washington.
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that → fail → Washington
"After the midterms, he will be in legacy mode," one well-placed Western diplomat told me.
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diplomat → place → me
"He will want to show agency on anything that is not the quagmire at home.
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that → want → home
But if voters elect a new government, they might have a prime minister with less political and personal investment in fresh attacks.
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they → elect → attacks
In those circumstances, Trump has suggested his thinking may change, too.
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thinking → suggest → circumstances
"If Israel has the wrong Leader, which would be anyone other than Bibi [a nickname for Netanyahu], America will have to do this work ourselves, and I am not inclined to do so," he wrote on social media.
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he → have → media
Little wonder policymakers in Tehran have been following US opinion polls as closely as any analyst inside the Washington beltway.
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policymakers → follow → beltway
The risk, of course, is that any post-electoral strikes would plunge the Middle East into fresh chaos if Iran were to retaliate hard.
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Iran → plunge → chaos
Publicly and privately, Iranian officials have threatened to hit airports, pipelines, undersea cables, energy facilities, desalination plants as well as US bases and warships.
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officials → threaten → airports
Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, wrote in the Financial Times that new attacks would put "civilian lives and the wellbeing of all regional states and the global economy at great risk".
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attacks → write → risk
It's the economy
The two elections again intertwine around the global economy.
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elections → intertwine → economy
…and 26 more, not listed.
The Aporia
