This guide will be updated when the field is set with comments from Melbourne Cup-winning jockey Michelle Payne assessing each runner’s chances.
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field → update → chances
If the early bird catches the worm, then we are giving you every chance to pick the winner of this year’s Melbourne Cup.
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we → catch → Cup
We have burned the midnight oil a week out from the race that stops the nation to provide a comprehensive runner-by-runner guide to the top 31 chances in this year’s event – the field of 24 will be finalised on Saturday night.
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field → burn → night
The top 24 have been ordered in most likely saddle cloth numbers – from top weight down to bottom weight.
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24 → order → weight
Jockey: Ryan Moore
Career: 23: 6-2-6 Last start: Second of 11 G3 Kilternan Stakes Leopardstown
Russell says: A dual group 2 winner from Ireland who sounds more like a midday soapie than a racehorse.
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who → say → racehorse
That being said, in our view he has more chance of winning an Emmy than the Melbourne Cup, considering he has to lug 57.5kg to victory first-up in Australia.
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he → say → Australia
Jockey: Christophe Lemaire
Career: 12: 6-2-0 Last start: 13th of 18 G1 Takarazuka Kinen 2200m
Russell says: Japanese horses generally get the shivers at the hint of rain, so a big watch on the weather forecast.
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horses → say → forecast
If we have a dry track, go on his win two starts back in a group 3 over 3401m.
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we → have → 3401
That puts him right in the mix.
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That → put → mix
Jockey Christophe Lemaire won the 2011 Cup on Dunaden.
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Lemaire → win → Dunaden
Russell says: If you believe in the saying, ‘follow the money’, this is the horse for you.
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this → say → you
He’s owned by Irish billionaire JP McManus, who used to be a bookmaker.
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who → own → McManus
That’s a good lead right there.
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That → ’ → ?
Watch to see if McManus bets up big on Cup eve.
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McManus → watch → eve
Jockey: Dylan Browne McMonagle
Career: 9: 3-1-1 Last start: First of six G2 Prix Kergorlay Deauville 2999m
Russell says: The UK’s version of Pride Of Jenni who will turn this year’s race into a war of attrition.
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who → say → attrition
The Kergorlay is a good form guide, having thrown up Cup winners Americain (2010) and Protectionist (2014), but a 24-horse Cup field might cause him agoraphobia.
uncertain
field → throw → agoraphobia
Jockey: Mark Zahra
Career: 26: 6-2-3 Last start: Eighth of 12 G1 Cox Plate 2040m
Russell says: If this galloper’s name has been plucked from JRR Tolkien mythology, then surely his trainer, Ciaron Maher, qualifies as some sort of modern-day wizard.
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trainer → say → wizard
Maher is on fire and has given this fellow the old-fashioned Cup preparation.
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Maher → give → preparation
Bart Cummings’ rule was 10km – he has racked up 9.94km in five lead-up races.
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he → rack → races
He looked good late in the Cox Plate.
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He → look → Plate
Jockey: Robbie Dolan
Career: 31: 6-3-3 Last start: 14th of 18 G1 Caulfield Cup 2400m
Russell says: The shock 2024 winner was robbed of the chance to defend his crown in 2025 because of the equine equivalent of a lockdown.
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winner → say → lockdown
Not COVID-19, but strangles – a contagious bacterial disease – that was detected at Macedon Lodge on the eve of last year’s spring.
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that → detect → spring
Great run in the Herbert Power two starts back, might have copped interference in Caulfield Cup.
uncertain
run → cop → Cup
Russell says: The veteran is lining up for his fourth Melbourne Cup – the first two for Irish trainer Willie Mullins before he was sold to Australian connections to be trained by Waterhouse and Bott.
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he → say → Waterhouse
He finished sixth last year, but might not be going as well.
uncertain
He → finish → ?
Although he was first-up in the Geelong Cup, so hard to tell.
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he → tell → Cup
Russell says: Cooked in the Caulfield Cup by a head-scratching ride from visiting hoop Jamie Spencer.
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Russell → say → Spencer
He bolted to the front, whacked on the handbrakes and then looked confused when the pressure went back on from the 800m.
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pressure → bolt → 800
He was flying before that.
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He → fly → that
Russell says: Best of internationals in the Caulfield Cup, and in my view, internationals need an impressive lead-up run in Australia if they are to win the Melbourne Cup.
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they → say → Cup
He ticks that box.
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He → tick → box
And for those struggling to pronounce his name, Google says Enfjaar means “burst” in Arabic.
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Enfjaar → struggle → Arabic
Russell says: Purchased abroad by Australian Bloodstock, who have won the Cup with Protectionist and Gold Trip, and was a massive spruik horse leading into the Caulfield Cup.
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who → say → Cup
Sadly for punters, he didn’t live up to expectations.
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he → live → expectations
Russell says: A former hurdler who ran a surprise second in the Melbourne Cup last year.
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who → say → Cup
Trained by Joseph O’Brien, who has already won the race twice, and owned by Irish billionaire JP McManus.
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who → train → McManus
Jockey: Sam Clipperton
Career: 20: 6-3-6 Last start: First of 16 G2 MV Gold Cup 2500m
Russell says: In hot form, having won its past two starts, including a big win in the group 2 Metropolitan at Randwick on October 3.
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Russell → say → October
Didn’t make the cut for the Caulfield Cup, but many believed he could have won the race.
uncertain
he → make → race
Still think he brings the B-grade form.
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he → think → form
Jockey: TBC
Career: 33: 8-1-2 Last start: 12th of 18 G1 Caulfield Cup 2400m
Russell says: Caught up in the backwash of the tragic fall in the Caulfield Cup.
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Russell → say → Cup
…and 32 more, not listed.
The Aporia
