Lingering hopes of averting a major new conflagration between Iran and the US soon after Tuesday’s midterm elections could rest on Iran’s response to a personal letter from the US vice-president, JD Vance, offering to restart diplomacy.
uncertain
hopes → linger → diplomacy
The letter, written after predominantly Qatari mediation, was sent to the secretary of Iran’s supreme national security council, Mohsen Rezaei on Sunday and requires Tehran to agree to make commitments on its nuclear programme at the start of a process that would lead to the opening of the strait of Hormuz within seven days in return for US sanctions relief.
asserted
that → write → relief
A reply is imminent, but Iran is reluctant to give upfront and irreversible commitments on its nuclear programme, such as exporting its stockpile of highly enriched uranium to a third country, if the compensatory US steps, such as lifting sanctions on Iranian oil exports, are reversible.
asserted
steps → give → exports
Some form of third-party guarantee that both sides will adhere to their commitments has been discussed, with China often mentioned as the only country of sufficient status to underwrite it.
asserted
China → adhere → it
The return of Vance, a sceptic about the war, to the negotiations is significant and a sign that the US has not abandoned diplomacy.
asserted
US → abandon → diplomacy
One Democrat senator briefed on the targets the US military had identified in Iran said described the plan for a renewed attack as “insane and likely lead to the destruction of our commitment to the rule of law”.
asserted
military → brief → law
In a sign of Iran’s reluctance to meet US demands about sequencing, its chief negotiator, Mohammad Ghalibaf, wrote on X: “Iran’s conditions have been repeatedly and clearly stated to the mediators.
asserted
conditions → meet → mediators
The carrot-and-stick approach has no effect on Iran.
asserted
approach → have → Iran
Progress can only be achieved once Iran’s seven conditions have been agreed upon.”
asserted
conditions → achieve → ?
Those conditions include the lifting of sanctions, ending asset freezes and the end to the war on all fronts, a phrase that requires an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon.
asserted
that → include → Lebanon
The US wants front-loaded, specific commitments about the removal of Iran’s stockpile of highly-enriched uranium.
asserted
US → want → uranium
Tehran is reluctant to give up its bargaining leverage, and also resists the return of UN nuclear inspectors for fear they might provide the US with intelligence on the whereabouts and state of the stockpile.
uncertain
they → give → stockpile
It has proposed blending the stockpile down inside Iran so it is no longer useable to make a nuclear weapon.
asserted
it → propose → weapon
The Vance letter was sent to Rezaei rather than Ghalibaf or the foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, because Washington judged that decision-making power rests with those closest to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.
asserted
power → send → Corps
In practice, Iran tries to reach decisions through consensus at the highest level of government in a six strong committee.
asserted
Iran → try → committee
Ghalibaf and Rezaei met the supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, last week to discuss the risk of a new war.
asserted
Ghalibaf → meet → war
Khamenei has said he would like an end to the current state of no war, no peace.
asserted
he → say → war
Iran has well laid plans ready to strike back against US interests in the region by hitting desalination plants, internet cables and electricity grids across the Gulf.
asserted
Iran → lay → Gulf
For a third US attack in two years to have any rationale or prospect of inducing Iran’s capitulation, the plan would require the US, probably in conjunction with a caretaker government in Israel, to mount attacks on previously off-limits targets.
asserted
plan → have → targets
Europe would not join the attacks, but the views of the Gulf states, the chief targets of Iran reprisals, would be key.
asserted
views → join → reprisals
The Connecticut senator Chris Murphy told a briefing at the Middle East Institute: “I did get a fairly detailed conversation about what the war plan would be …
asserted
plan → tell → conversation
I will just say this their plan is insane.
asserted
plan → say → this
It will lead to devastating escalation and the likely destruction of our commitment to the rule of law.
asserted
It → lead → law
“There has been open reporting as to the civilian infrastructure we may be targeting …
uncertain
we → target → infrastructure
I think the plan they have developed will lead in my judgement to a prolongment [sic] and escalation of this war that will be devastating to our security interest”.
asserted
that → think → interest
Although Tehran trusts Vance marginally more than most White House politicians and envoys, the Iranian high command is still suspicious about his status after he negotiated a 14-point memorandum of understanding which then fell apart when other members of the US administration took charge of its implementation.
asserted
members → trust → implementation
That led to unilateral US steps to reopen the strait of Hormuz that Iran said contravened the terms of the agreement.
asserted
Iran → lead → agreement
Trump also came to detest it because it delayed the start of nuclear talks for as long as 60 days.
asserted
it → come → days
In an offer made by Tehran on the margins of the UN general assembly, it proposed foreshortening the timeframe before nuclear talks started, saying they could start withinsix or seven days of the US restoring the sanctions waiver on its oil exports and the reopening of the strait of Hormuz.
uncertain
US → make → Hormuz
The Aporia
