Israelis went to the polls on Tuesday in the largest numbers since the early 1970s with just under 80 per cent voter turnout.
asserted
Israelis → go → turnout
Arab Israelis (or Palestinian citizens of Israel as some wish to be described) voted in even larger numbers.
asserted
some → wish → numbers
Unfortunately, in the battle between the pro Bibi Netanyahu far right-wing coalition and the centre right opposition block led by former Chief of Defence Staff Gadi Eisenkot, the votes failed to produce a clear winner, i.e., the 61 seats required for a majority government.
asserted
votes → lead → government
Contrary to most of the pre-election polls and the exit polling results, the Prime Minister’s Likud Party won the most votes (32) and his coalition won the most seats 53/120 among the Zionist or Jewish Israeli parties.
asserted
coalition → win → parties
The Eisenkot block won 48 seats and the two Arab Israeli parties won a very significant 19.
asserted
parties → win → 19
From one perspective, it can be argued that Netanyahu lost the election.
asserted
Netanyahu → argue → election
His coalition went from 68 to 53 seats and his party from 32 to 26 seats.
asserted
coalition → go → seats
, unless he can convince some of the more right-wing elements of the opposition coalition to jump ship, he has little to no chance of reaching the magic 61 seat majority or even leading a minority government with support from the outside.
asserted
he → convince → outside
But he remains Prime Minister unless and until the opposition succeeds in forming its own government or until another election which could be as much as six months away.
uncertain
which → remain → election
The next step in the process is for the president, Issac Herzog, to begin consulting all parties to determine which, if any, can form a government.
asserted
president → begin → government
If Eisenkot were prepared to welcome the Arab parties who represent 21 per cent of Israel’s population into his coalition, he would have a majority of 67 seats but that will not be easy.
asserted
that → prepare → seats
First, at least two leaders of other parts of his block, Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman, have previously said they would not serve in a government backed by the Arab parties.
asserted
they → say → parties
This, despite the fact that when he was briefly Prime Minister in the 2021 “Change” government, Bennett himself included the Arab Ra’am party in his government.
asserted
Bennett → include → government
Unfortunately, the impact of the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas on all Israelis has alienated many from their Arab neighbours.
asserted
impact → alienate → neighbours
The options going forward are many, but none are obvious.
asserted
none → go → ?
If neither block can convince the President that they can form a government (and this process could take up to two and half months), then new elections would be held 90 days later.
uncertain
elections → convince → months
If Eisenkot and his partners decide that dethroning Bibi Netanyahu and his coalition is more important than keeping their election promises, they could agree that the two Arab parties could support them from within or from outside or a combination thereof) and Eisenkot could try to govern with a minority government.
uncertain
Eisenkot → decide → government
Even if that government didn’t last a full term, he could, for example, establish an independent state led commission of inquiry into the causes of the Oct. 7 attacks, end the exemption of young orthodox men from the draft, and reverse legislation that was undermining the independence of the judiciary.
uncertain
that → last → judiciary
A third option would be the formation of a national unity government that would bring together Netanyahu’s Likud Party and the more right-wing elements of the opposition while excluding the likes of Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gvir, the most far right and racist ministers in the current government.
asserted
that → bring → government
This would require very significant compromises in policy terms and would have to overcome extreme animosities between Netanyahu and the all the leaders of the Eisenkot block.
asserted
This → require → block
Of all Western leaders, including Prime Minister Carney, only Donald Trump would welcome a continuation of the policies of a Netanyahu-led government.
asserted
Trump → include → government
A different government would likely be given a pass for some time in order to determine whether settler violence and settlement expansion would be curtailed and whether some progress might be made in terms of Gaza reconstruction and relief.
uncertain
progress → give → reconstruction
However, if Netanyahu and his current ministers and their policies were to remain in place, one could imagine that new sanctions and other punitive measures might eventually be imposed.
uncertain
sanctions → remain → place
Finally, it’s important to note that neither block made the situation in Gaza nor the activities in the West Bank a priority in the recent campaign.
asserted
situation → ’ → campaign
Even if a change in government were somehow to be formed, any major moves toward a negotiated peace deal with the Palestinians is simply not on the current Israeli agenda.
asserted
moves → form → agenda
It may be possible in the short term to refuse to acknowledge what many believe is the existential question for Israelis.
uncertain
many → refuse → Israelis
But this is something future Israeli governments will only be able to ignore at their peril.
asserted
governments → ignore → peril
The Aporia
