The 2026 Israeli election campaign was widely described as a referendum on Benjamin Netanyahu, the country's longest serving prime minister.
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campaign → describe → Netanyahu
It says much for Netanyahu's political aggression that within 24 hours of an inconclusive election result, he had turned the debate from a referendum about him, to a referendum about keeping Palestinian citizens of Israel out of government.
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he → say → government
On election day, Netanyahu repeatedly attacked Palestinian-Israeli voters in posts on social media.
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Netanyahu → attack → media
He accused them of "stealing the election" because they had turned up to vote in record numbers.
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they → accuse → numbers
He accused the "Arab parties" of "serious criminal offences of bribery, threats, violence, forgeries, and the use of prohibited software to mobilise voters".
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He → accuse → voters
In Israel, the parties that predominantly represent Palestinian Israeli citizens are referred to as Arab parties.
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that → represent → parties
Election officials and the police dismissed the claims.
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officials → dismiss → claims
On election day, Shin Bet chief David Zini said "the elections in Israel are secure, conducted properly, and under supervised control".
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elections → say → control
But by Thursday the domestic intelligence agency had been asked to investigate claims that Qatari money was behind a record surge in the vote of Palestinian-Israelis.
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money → ask → Israelis
The leader of the anti-Netanyahu bloc, Gadi Eisenkot, accused Netanyahu and his Likud party of launching "a coordinated, orchestrated campaign to delegitimise the election results".
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leader → accuse → results
An extraordinary 80 per cent of eligible Palestinian-Israelis turned up to vote on Tuesday.
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cent → turn → Tuesday
Political disillusionment has kept Palestinian turnout low in the past.
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disillusionment → keep → past
But anger over the government's refusal to deal with crime in Palestinian towns helped change that this time.
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anger → deal → that
Another leader of the anti-Netanyahu forces, Yair Golan, said Israelis "must no longer accept Netanyahu's racist division between Jewish votes and Arab votes".
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Israelis → say → votes
"We have no future here if we don't stop being afraid," he said.
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he → have → future
Racism with a lethal political purpose
The racism that Golan accuses Netanyahu of using can have a lethal political purpose.
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Golan → accuse → purpose
The election outcome gave no bloc the capacity to form a government.
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outcome → give → government
The parties that oppose him have 67 seats, comprising the 48 seats won by the Jewish-Israeli anti-Netanyahu bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot, as well as the 19 seats won by Arab Israeli parties, compared to Netanyahu's 53.
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that → oppose → 53
The problem for the anti-Netanyahu forces is that its Jewish-Israeli members have insisted that they would not enter a coalition with the Arab parties.
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they → insist → parties
Yair Golan, quoted earlier, who leads the Democrats with a bloc of eight seats, is the exception.
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who → quote → seats
In attacking the legitimacy of the Palestinian vote, Benjamin Netanyahu is maximising the pressure on the Eisenkot bloc not to change its position on doing deals with the Palestinians.
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Netanyahu → attack → Palestinians
In a political system where the disdain for Palestinian-Israelis is such that they are usually just ignored in the reporting of political events, it would be an exceptionally high-risk move for the opposition parties to change their stance.
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parties → ignore → stance
But the anti-Netanyahu bloc is also aware that the majority of Israelis — Jewish and Palestinian — voted against Netanyahu.
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majority → vote → Netanyahu
If they do not find a way of forming a government, the veteran Likud leader will win by default: yet another election will have to be called with Netanyahu remaining caretaker prime minister until that happens.
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that → find → default
Battlelines are drawn
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Battlelines → draw → ?
While negotiations continue, the mechanics of the Israeli parliament, the Knesset, in the next few weeks are likely to become the next scene of battle.
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mechanics → continue → battle
The political system in Israel allows the new parliament to meet two weeks after an election, even if a government has not been formed.
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government → allow → election
The opposition parties have signalled they will immediately move to elect a new speaker of the Parliament to replace Likud's Amir Ohana.
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they → signal → Ohana
The speaker can control much of the legislative agenda.
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speaker → control → agenda
The combined anti-Netanyahu parties, with 67 seats, potentially have enough votes to advance legislation and are pushing for the election of a new speaker to proceed as soon as possible.
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election → have → speaker
Netanyahu's Likud Party says a vote on a new speaker should be suspended while the inquiry into foreign interference in the election take place.
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inquiry → say → place
If the opposition parties can nominate a non-Likud speaker, they can move legislation to implement election promises, including for an independent inquiry into security failures leading to October 7, limits on prime ministerial terms, and laws banning someone indicted for crimes from serving as prime minister.
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they → nominate → minister
It would be the most pragmatic possible test of numbers if a vote to replace the speaker was successful and could change the dynamics of negotiations over government.
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vote → replace → government
It would also confirm the acceptance of Arab votes without those votes being attached to a particular government.
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votes → confirm → government
LoadingA crack in Netanyahu's forces
One reform that highlights some of the complex chains of support being canvassed here concerns military conscription.
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that → highlight → conscription
The exemption from the military draft currently given to ultra-Orthodox Jews is highly contentious, given IDF reservists have been forced into long and repeated deployments because of Israel's actions in Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon and Syria.
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reservists → give → Gaza
Eisenkot has vowed to legislate for universal military service.
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Eisenkot → vow → service
Israel's Channel 12 reported on Thursday that the ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism party — which has seven seats — was proposing supporting a government led by Gadi Eisenkot from "the outside".
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which → report → outside
That is, in exchange for compromises on the military draft, it could absent itself from Knesset votes and wouldn't use its seven seats to vote against an Eisenkot government.
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it → absent → government
It would also accept Eisenkot relying on seven votes from the smaller of the two Arab parties — Ra'am.
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Eisenkot → accept → parties
…and 12 more, not listed.
The Aporia
