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Economists raise alarm on California wealth tax — more than 100 sign letter against it

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Hartley, J. (2026, November 2). Economists raise alarm on California wealth tax — more than 100 sign letter against it. New York Post. https://nypost.com/2026/11/01/opinion/economists-raise-alarm-on-california-wealth-tax/

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New York Post · collected 2026-11-02 · by Jon Hartley

Quick Summary

Over one hundred economists, including Nobel Laureates and former government officials from various administrations, signed a letter opposing California’s Proposition 40, which proposes a wealth tax on residents with assets over $1 billion. The signatories argue that such taxes are ineffective due to their high mobility and difficulty in enforcement, citing examples of other countries abandoning similar measures. They also highlight specific issues with Proposition 40, including potential legal challenges and administrative complexities, as well as the risk of deterring investment and causing economic harm by forcing billionaires to sell illiquid assets.
Written by AI on 2026-11-02, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

AI analysis

Story summary

Over 100 economists, including Nobel Laureates and former government officials from various administrations, signed a letter opposing California's Proposition 40, which aims to implement a wealth tax on the state's billionaires. The signatories argue that the proposition is bad public policy due to issues such as its potential illegality for being retroactive and its unenforceability because of the mobility of wealth and assets. Similar wealth taxes in other countries have largely been abandoned, highlighting concerns about practical implementation and legal challenges.

Written for “California Wealth Tax Controversy” on 2026-11-02, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.

Story

📰 California Wealth Tax Controversy
Economy/Business · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

Compared with similar articles

This article reads unscored and hedges 27% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
Los Angeles Times
Hedges 6 of 66 claims Outlet record 95/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of Proposition 40; one focuses on social media influencers getting paid to influence voters, while the other highlights economists opposing it through a letter.”
Reason
Hedges 2 of 33 claims Outlet record 67/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of the wealth tax issue without describing the same specific incident.”
New York Post
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 3 of 32 claims Outlet record 66/100
“The articles discuss different propositions (Prop. 3 vs. Prop. 40) and focus on varying aspects - one covers public opinion polls about making a tax permanent, while the other highlights economists opposing another wealth tax proposal.”
Mother Jones
⚖️ Leans strongly left Hedges 9 of 84 claims Outlet record 60/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of Proposition 40 (the California wealth tax) on separate days.”
NPR
Hedges 22 of 134 claims Outlet record 60/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of opposition to Proposition 40, with Article A focusing on a letter signed by over 100 economists and Article B highlighting contrasting studies by two economists.”
TIME
⚖️ Leans strongly left Hedges 5 of 61 claims Outlet record 59/100
“While both articles discuss Proposition 40 regarding California's wealth tax, they describe different aspects and do not clearly report on a single identical incident.”
New York Post
⚖️ Leans right Hedges 8 of 56 claims Outlet record 66/100
“Article A focuses on economists signing a letter against the wealth tax, while Article B reports on billionaires leaving California due to the proposed tax.”
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
22
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
27%
6 of 22 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
withheld
no quote in the article backed the model's score
Publisher signals
66/100
New York Post's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
1
Economy/Business
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-11-02 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

New York Post · 16054 article(s) · 35 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 35 correction(s)

Who wrote this

Jon Hartley
2 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 There are quite a few issues with California’s Proposition 40 wealth tax in particular: For one thing, it may not be legal.
🔮 The “billionaire tax,” known as Proposition 40, is a one-time 5% wealth tax that will hit California residents with assets valued at over $1 billion.
Also by Jon Hartley
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.

Topics

California Democrats Proposition 3 Proposition 40 Proposition 42

Subjects

California GPE · 9× Bill Clinton’s PERSON · 1× Democrats NORP · 1× Donald Trump PERSON · 1× Gavin Newsom PERSON · 1× George W. Bush PERSON · 1× Jon Hartley PERSON · 1× Mark Cuban PERSON · 1× the Hoover Institution ORG · 1× the UT-Austin School of Civic Leadership ORG · 1×

Narrative

From an administrative standpoint, administering the “billionaire tax” would require lots of accountants and experts merely to value the assets of billionaires, much of which are illiquid.
framing: mixed · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-11-02
🔮 There are quite a few issues with California’s Proposition 40 wealth tax in particular: For one thing, it may not be legal.

Claims (22 extracted, 6 hedged)

Last week, I led a group of over 100 economists — including Nobel Laureates, former senior government officials and academics — in signing a letter opposing Proposition 40. asserted
I → lead → Proposition
The economists, who were already on the record against the tax, believe it’s simply bad public policy. asserted
it → believe → tax
Some worked during Bill Clinton’s administration; some worked for George W. Bush and some have worked for President Donald Trump. asserted
some → work → Trump
That gives you a sense of how bipartisan this opposition is. asserted
opposition → give → sense
Where do we start? asserted
we → start → ?
Similar wealth taxes have been adopted by about a dozen countries in the past few decades, and nearly all of them have been abandoned for a similar list of reasons. asserted
all → adopt → reasons
Wealth taxes don’t make a very good form of tax. asserted
taxes → make → tax
Unlike property taxes, sales taxes and income taxes, it’s very easy to change one’s residence to avoid a wealth tax. asserted
it → ’ → tax
Investment, capital and firms can move very easily to avoid such a tax. asserted
Investment → move → tax
There are quite a few issues with California’s Proposition 40 wealth tax in particular: For one thing, it may not be legal. uncertain
it → be → thing
It would be retroactive, hitting all California residents as of Jan. 1, 2026, even though it would be approved almost a year later. asserted
it → hit → Jan.
It’s not clear that a retroactive tax can pass legal and constitutional muster, even as a “one-time” tax. asserted
tax → ’ → tax
That’s why California voters are facing Proposition 3, which would make an earlier “one-time” income tax hike on the state’s highest earners permanent. asserted
hike → ’ → earners
From an administrative standpoint, administering the “billionaire tax” would require lots of accountants and experts merely to value the assets of billionaires, much of which are illiquid. asserted
much → administer → which
The California state government can’t seem to be able to build a mile of railroad track, so administering a complicated wealth tax could similarly prove very difficult. uncertain
administering → seem → tax
The other enormous repercussion would be forcing billionaire entrepreneurs to sell their illiquid stakes in their companies, which may have further negative economic effects, such as tanking share prices, for example. uncertain
which → force → example
Even though the tariff could raise tens of billions of dollars in the first year, it would have such negative, long-lasting effects on California’s image as a place to invest that the cost would outweigh any short-term benefit. uncertain
cost → raise → benefit
Even Democrats like Mark Cuban have said they won’t invest in California startups any more if the billionaire tax passes. asserted
tax → say → startups
At least seven billionaires have left California already, in a public way, and that number could continue to grow. uncertain
number → leave → way
There may also be others who have left quietly already. uncertain
who → leave → ?
California Gov. Gavin Newsom himself opposes Proposition 40, and even is supporting Proposition 42, which would cancel the “billionaire tax” and ban future wealth taxes. asserted
which → oppose → taxes
Jon Hartley is a visiting fellow at the Hoover Institution and an assistant professor of economics at the UT-Austin School of Civic Leadership. asserted
Hartley → visit → Leadership
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