President Donald Trump is suffering some of the lowest approval ratings ever as the Republican leader continues to struggle with a number of voter concerns.
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leader → suffer → concerns
High cost of living, soaring diesel prices and dissatisfaction with the war in Iran have led many political analysts to predict significant defeats for the GOP in the Midterm Elections on November 3.
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cost → soar → November
The Democrats are gaining popularity in once-reliable red states as the opposition party has made a concerted effort to gain traction in Donald Trump’s conservative heartland.
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party → gain → heartland
However, six analysts and party strategists speaking to Reuters pointed to six factors that could turn the tide on the Democrats’ expected landslide victory.
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that → speak → victory
Fewer competitive House races
The number of competitive U.S. House races has shrunk sharply over the past three decades as partisan polarization and redistricting – including gerrymandering – have made more seats safely Democratic or Republican.
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seats → shrink → gerrymandering
As a result, analysts estimate that only about 40 to 50 of the House's 435 seats are truly competitive this year.
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50 → estimate → seats
Most expect Democrats to retake the lower chamber from Republicans, but with a majority of perhaps 5 to 20 seats, the scope for gains like those in 2018 is limited, when Democrats picked up 41 seats.
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Democrats → expect → seats
Bill Galston, a former White House adviser to President Bill Clinton, said if Democrats gain even 25 House seats, "they'd have a working majority, but not a huge one."
Such a majority would give Democrats control of the House but little room to maneuver, making it harder to pass contentious legislation or claim the sweeping mandate associated with past wave elections.
Senate majority is no sure scenario
While Democrats are favored to make gains in the 100-member Senate, achieving the net gain of four seats needed for a 51-49 majority remains far from certain because many of their top pickup targets are in states Trump carried by wide margins in 2024.
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Trump → say → 2024
David Wasserman, an elections analyst at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, said Democrats must make breakthroughs in states Trump carried by double digits.
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Trump → say → digits
Even a national swing of 10 percentage points toward Democrats would likely leave the party two seats short of a majority, he said.
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he → leave → majority
Democrats also face tougher-than-expected contests in states they had hoped would be safer, including Maine, New Hampshire and Michigan.
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they → face → Maine
"Republicans are hanging very close in those races," said Andrew Busch, a public policy professor at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville, and author of a history of midterm elections.
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Busch → hang → elections
"That's not necessarily what you would expect if things were going well for Democrats across the board.
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things → expect → board
Opinion polls show Democratic voters more enthusiastic than Republicans, but strategists caution that Democratic constituencies such as young, Black, and Hispanic voters have historically turned out at lower rates in midterm elections than in presidential years.
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constituencies → show → years
Surveys show persistent skepticism among these groups towards both parties, especially over the cost of living.
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Surveys → show → living
If turnout among those groups falls short of expectations, analysts said, Democrats could underperform on Election Day.
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Democrats → fall → Day
Early voting data in states that register voters by party showed higher Democratic engagement.
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that → register → engagement
But Republicans argue that many of their supporters traditionally wait until Election Day to vote.
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many → argue → Day
In the 2022 midterms, voters aged 50 and older made up nearly twice as much of the electorate as those under 50.
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voters → age → 50
In recent years, older voters have leaned Republican, according to exit-poll surveys.
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voters → lean → surveys
Republicans entered the campaign's final stretch with a substantial financial advantage, although spending in key races has had mixed results so far.
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spending → enter → results
The GOP held a cash advantage of several hundred million dollars heading into the final weeks of the campaign across their national party committees and major allied super PACs, according to committee filings and Federal Election Commission data.
Trump spent more than $277 million, mostly through his MAGA Inc. super PAC, on a late TV and direct-mail blitz to aid struggling Republican candidates, according to Federal Election Commission data.
Tesla TSLA.O CEO Elon Musk spent roughly $366 million during the midterm cycle, including $276 million since July, to support conservative candidates.
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Musk → hold → candidates
Republicans outspent Democrats by $188 million in Senate battleground advertising by the end of September, according to AdImpact, which tracks advertising spending.
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which → outspent → spending
"Any time you have one side with a big financial advantage and the ability to pour it into races at the last minute, it can tip the result of close races," Busch said.
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Busch → have → races
Polls have missed Republican strength
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Polls → miss → strength
Opinion polls have frequently underestimated Republican support in recent election cycles.
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polls → underestimate → cycles
Reuters/Ipsos polling shows registered voters favoring Democrats over Republicans by 47% to 35% on the congressional generic ballot.
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voters → show → ballot
The largest polling misses came when Trump was on the ballot.
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Trump → come → ballot
The president, who is not on the ballot this year, has urged supporters to treat November's election as if he were.
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he → urge → election
Polls significantly understated Republican strength in the 2014 midterms, when the party won a sweeping Senate victory.
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party → understate → victory
But midterm polls in 2022 underestimated how well Democrats would perform.
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Democrats → underestimate → 2022
Socialism attacks could resonate
Trump and many Republican candidates have sought to paint Democrats as socialists and extremists who pose an existential threat to the country.
Democrats in competitive races are increasingly declaring themselves proud capitalists, worried that the Republican tactics could sway critical independent voters.
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tactics → resonate → voters
Republicans are highlighting victories by members of the Democratic Socialists of America movement and progressive candidates in Democratic primaries to portray the whole party as socialist, even though fewer than two dozen won this year.
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dozen → highlight → party
Galston said the attacks could resonate with some wavering voters and influence close races.
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attacks → say → races
"It might be effective at the margins," Galston said.
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Galston → say → margins
"It could reduce the Democratic advantage by one or two points in the close races."
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It → reduce → races
The Aporia
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