The furnaces are cold, the factory floor deserted, and twisted metal litters the grounds of Kamet Steel, a vast industrial complex that once helped power Ukraine’s economy but closed after a Russian attack.
asserted
that → litter → attack
Across the country, grain — a key export — piles up in fields and silos as farmers struggle to find routes safe from airstrikes and wait for prices to rise.
asserted
prices → pile → airstrikes
Russia’s intensified air campaign is slowly strangling Ukraine’s economy, targeting industrial and energy plants and the logistics networks, railways and export routes that keep it afloat.
asserted
that → intensify → it
The near-daily strikes with ballistic missiles and jet-powered drones disrupt production and drive up transport costs.
asserted
strikes → power → costs
As a result, Ukraine’s government faces a deepening cash crunch as the air war chokes its revenue from steel, agriculture and other key sources.
asserted
war → face → steel
The damage ripples across interconnected sectors just as Kyiv faces uncertainty over future U.S. support.
asserted
Kyiv → ripple → support
Ukraine’s central bank last week forecast a 0.4% economic contraction in 2026, reversing its previous projection of 1.8% growth, due to the attacks and a surge in global energy prices.
asserted
bank → forecast → prices
Gov. Andriy Pyshnyy said the bank had also raised its inflation forecast to 12.5%, from 10% in July.
asserted
bank → say → July
Ukraine spends some 40% of its gross domestic product on defense — far beyond what it can cover alone, notes Torbjörn Becker, director of the Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics.
asserted
Becker → spend → Economics
Raising taxes only would bring in a fraction of what is needed.
asserted
what → raise → fraction
Ukraine’s steel industry, a pillar of the economy, grinds to a halt
Missile strikes have halted steel production across Metinvest Group, the country’s mining and metals giant.
asserted
strikes → grind → Group
Kamet Steel, in the industrial city of Kamianske, accounted for more than a quarter of Ukraine’s steel output in 2025.
asserted
Steel → account → 2025
The complex employed thousands producing steel and pig iron for domestic construction.
asserted
complex → employ → construction
It also supplied semi-finished steel to Metinvest’s facility in Bulgaria for the market there and elsewhere in Europe.
asserted
It → supply → Europe
But five ballistic missiles struck the site on Sept. 5.
asserted
missiles → strike → Sept.
Its closure has hurt Ukraine’s industrial economy, affecting construction, mining, engineering, energy and logistics.
asserted
closure → hurt → construction
Ukrzaliznytsia, the national railway operator, relies heavily on steel transport and other freight revenue.
asserted
Ukrzaliznytsia → rely → transport
Businesses that rely on the plant could lose jobs and face bankruptcy, said Oleksandr Tretyakov, Kamet Steel’s CEO.
uncertain
Tretyakov → rely → bankruptcy
European Union trade restrictions could hinder recovery by narrowing the market for Ukrainian steel exports, he said.
uncertain
he → hinder → exports
“This is the worst situation since the Second World War,” Tretyakov said, noting that steel once accounted for about 6% of Ukraine’s GDP.
asserted
steel → say → GDP
“It did,” he said.
asserted
he → do → ?
“Right now, it’s zero.”
asserted
it → ’ → ?
Grain is trapped behind export bottlenecks
Agriculture accounts for up to 60% of Ukraine’s foreign currency earnings, making it critical to the wartime economy.
asserted
Agriculture → trap → economy
But Russian attacks on Black Sea shipping have sharply reduced traffic through Ukraine’s deep-water ports just as farmers need cash to prepare for the next planting season.
asserted
farmers → reduce → season
Ukraine’s Black Sea trade has collapsed with attacks on ports, vessels and logistics infrastructure, according to maritime data and analytics company Lloyd’s List Intelligence.
uncertain
trade → collapse → company
Soaring insurance premiums and the constant threat of Russian strikes deter shipowners.
asserted
premiums → soar → shipowners
Dozens of sailors have been killed in attacks this year.
asserted
Dozens → kill → attacks
“All our developments and all the innovations we achieved will be crossed out by this situation and we will need to start from zero later
asserted
we → achieve → zero
,” said Volodymyr Scavinskyi, trade director at Nibulon, one of Ukraine’s leading agricultural exporters.
asserted
Scavinskyi → say → exporters
Ship traffic from Ukraine’s lower-capacity ports on the Danube River to the Black Sea has surged, even under the threat of Russian bombardment.
asserted
traffic → surge → bombardment
The Danube delta’s Sulina Channel is too shallow for the largest vessels, and dozens of ships often wait days to enter or leave the river.
asserted
dozens → wait → river
Record low Danube water levels due to drought also constrain the route.
asserted
levels → constrain → route
Barges that once carried 1,500 tons are loading only 800 to 900 tons, Scavinskyi said.
asserted
Scavinskyi → carry → tons
Nearly twice as many barges are needed to move the same volume, raising costs.
asserted
barges → need → costs
Transporting each ton of corn from central Ukraine to Spain cost up to $50 earlier this year.
asserted
Transporting → transport → 50
Now, it can reach $150, he said.
asserted
he → reach → 150
“It’s still risky and you don’t have any guarantees that your voyage will be successful,” Scavinskyi said.
asserted
Scavinskyi → ’ → guarantees
Farmers caught between breaking even and losses
For Olena Shelest, commercial director at HarvEast, a major agricultural holding, the immediate challenge is finding buyers.
asserted
challenge → catch → buyers
HarvEast is holding wheat in enormous silo bags, waiting for market prices to stabilize.
asserted
prices → hold → bags
But the grain must be sold by year’s end to free up cash for next year’s planting.
asserted
grain → sell → planting
…and 19 more, not listed.
The Aporia
