Most election forecasters broadly agree on the direction of this year’s 435 U.S. House elections.
asserted
forecasters → agree → elections
But a TIME analysis of race ratings from 10 reputable forecasters found 12 contests where some favor the Democratic candidate while others favor the Republican.
asserted
others → find → Republican
Those 12 conflicting forecasts are in the races for Alabama’s 2nd congressional district, Colorado’s 5th, Kentucky’s 6th, Michigan’s 10th, New York’s 17th, Ohio’s 7th, Pennsylvania’s 1st, Texas’ 15th and 35th, Virginia’s 1st and 5th, and Wisconsin’s 1st.
asserted
forecasts → conflict → district
The analysis examined ratings from Cook Political Report (CPR), Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), FiftyPlusOne (FPO), Fox News Power Rankings (FNPR), Inside Elections (IE), Race to the WH (RWH), Sabato’s Crystal Ball (SCB), Silver Bulletin’s FLIPR Deluxe model (SB), Split Ticket (ST), and The Economist (TE).
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analysis → examine → WH
In Alabama’s 2nd congressional district, SCB says the race leans toward Democratic incumbent Rep. Shomari Figures, ST calls it a toss-up, and all eight other forecasters favor Republican Rhett Marques.
asserted
forecasters → say → Marques
In Colorado’s 5th district, SCB also says the race leans toward the Democratic candidate, Jessica Killin, while FNPR and ST say it leans toward Republican incumbent Rep. Jeff Crank, and DDHQ and TE rate the race as Likely Republican.
asserted
DDHQ → say → race
The remaining five forecasters call the race a toss-up.
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forecasters → remain → race
In Kentucky’s 6th district, FPO and SCB say the race leans toward Republican Ralph Alvarado, while ST says it leans toward Democrat Zach Dembo.
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it → say → Dembo
The other seven forecasters call it a toss-up.
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forecasters → call → it
(TE uses the term “uncertain,” which this analysis treats as the equivalent of a toss-up rating.)
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analysis → use → rating
In Michigan’s 10th district, IE says the race tilts toward Republican Michael Bouchard, whereas DDHQ, FPO, SCB, SB, and ST all say it leans toward Democrat Christina Hines.
asserted
it → say → Hines
The remaining four forecasters call it a toss-up.
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forecasters → remain → it
In New York’s 17th district, CPR and IE rate the race between Republican incumbent Rep. Mike Lawler and Democrat Cait Conley as a toss-up.
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CPR → rate → up
SCB says the race leans toward Lawler, while the other seven forecasters all favor Conley.
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forecasters → say → Conley
In Ohio’s 7th district, RWH rates the contest between Republican incumbent Rep. Max Miller and Democrat Brian Poindexter as Tilt Republican.
asserted
RWH → rat → Republican
IE rates it as Tilt Democratic, SCB and ST as Lean Democratic, and SB as Likely Democratic.
asserted
IE → rat → Democratic
The other five forecasters call it a toss-up.
asserted
forecasters → call → it
In Pennsylvania’s 1st district, TE rates the race between Republican incumbent Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick and Democrat Bob Harvie as Likely Republican, while SCB and SB say it leans Democratic, and FPO rates it Likely Democratic.
asserted
FPO → rat → it
The other six forecasters call the race a toss-up.
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forecasters → call → race
In Texas’ 15th district, FPO says the race leans toward Republican incumbent Rep. Monica De La Cruz.
asserted
race → say → Cruz
IE says the race tilts toward Democrat Bobby Pulido, while SCB, SB, and ST say it leans Democratic.
asserted
it → say → Democratic
The remaining five forecasters call it a toss-up.
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forecasters → remain → it
In Texas’ 35th district, SCB and ST say the race leans toward Democrat Johnny Garcia over Republican Carlos De La Cruz.
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race → say → Cruz
TE rates the race as Likely Republican.
asserted
TE → rat → Republican
All seven other forecasters call it a toss-up.
asserted
forecasters → call → it
In Virginia’s 1st district, three forecasters—FPO, SCB, and SB—say the race leans toward Democrat Shannon Taylor over Republican incumbent Rep. Rob Wittman.
asserted
race → say → Wittman
IE, DDHQ, and TE rate the race as Tilt, Lean, and Likely Republican, respectively.
asserted
IE → rate → Tilt
And the other four forecasters call it a toss-up.
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forecasters → call → it
In Virginia’s 5th district, SCB says the race leans toward Democrat Tom Perriello.
asserted
race → say → Perriello
All nine other forecasters favor Republican incumbent Rep. John McGuire III—including SB and TE, which rate the race as Likely and Very Likely Republican, respectively, while the others say it leans Republican.
asserted
it → favor → Republican
In Wisconsin’s 1st district, FPO says the race leans toward Democrat Mitchell Berman, while CPR, DDHQ, IE, RWH, and SCB say it leans toward Republican incumbent Rep. Bryan Steil, and TE rates it Likely Republican.
asserted
TE → say → it
The remaining three forecasters call it a toss-up.
asserted
forecasters → remain → it
Of the remaining 423 House races, 182 are unanimously rated Safe or Solid Democratic, and another 31 are unanimously rated in favor of Democrats, though not all as Safe or Solid.
asserted
31 → remain → Democrats
On the Republican side, 108 are unanimously rated Safe or Solid Republican, and another 72 are unanimously rated in favor of Republicans, though not all as Safe or Solid.
asserted
72 → rat → Republicans
Thirty races have at least one toss-up rating but no disagreement among forecasters who favor a party: 17 for Democrats and 13 for Republicans.
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who → have → Republicans
TIME’s analysis reflects the forecasters’ ratings as of 7 a.m. ET, Nov. 3.
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analysis → reflect → ET
Ratings describe the forecasters’ assessments of each race based on polling and fundamental assumptions, but they are not guaranteed outcomes.
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they → describe → outcomes
The Aporia
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