After months of campaigning and billions of dollars spent, election day in the US midterms has arrived.
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day → spend → midterms
Public opinion polls give Democrats an edge, but past elections show polls are not always reliable, reports BBC News.
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News → give → edge
History shows midterm elections usually favour the party out of power.
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elections → show → power
Factors such as low presidential approval ratings, high consumer costs linked to the war with Iran, and debated policies on immigration and data centre construction have set the stage.
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Factors → link → stage
As votes are counted, three main outcomes could shape the future of Congress.
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outcomes → count → Congress
In this outcome, momentum pushes Democrats far beyond simple control of the House of Representatives, past the 218 seats needed for a majority.
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momentum → push → majority
They win toss-up contests and flip seats in conservative strongholds.
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They → win → strongholds
In the Senate, Democrats take most toss-up races and secure victories in traditionally Republican states like Texas or Kansas.
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Democrats → take → Texas
This cushion prevents complications from legal challenges, such as the dispute in Alaska regarding two candidates named Dan Sullivan on the ballot.
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cushion → prevent → ballot
This result relies on strong Democratic turnout, winning independent voters, and reversing previous Republican gains among Hispanic voters and young men.
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result → rely → voters
An outcome like this would give Democrats legislative control and lead to two years of intense confrontation with US President Donald Trump.
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outcome → give → Trump
Early indicators include Democrats holding target seats in Florida, gaining House districts in states like North Carolina, Michigan, New York, Virginia, and Kentucky, or winning the Senate race in South Carolina.
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Democrats → include → Carolina
In this outcome, Democrats win the House with a narrow majority.
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Democrats → win → majority
Leaders must balance votes between progressive and moderate factions to pass legislation.
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Leaders → balance → legislation
In the Senate, Democrats pick up limited seats, such as North Carolina, but fail to win in conservative states.
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Democrats → pick → states
Incumbents like Republican Senator Susan Collins in Maine retain their seats, Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed falls short in Michigan, or the ballot dispute in Alaska impacts Democratic candidate Mary Peltola.
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dispute → retain → Peltola
This happens if high Democratic early voting is matched by strong Republican turnout on election day, resulting in a divided Congress and legislative gridlock.
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voting → happen → Congress
Early indicators include Florida remaining comfortably Republican while Democrats make limited House gains in Virginia and Pennsylvania without sweeping broader seats.
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Democrats → include → seats
Scenario 3: A good night for Republicans
In this outcome, Republicans maintain control of both chambers of Congress.
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Republicans → maintain → Congress
This requires polling errors that underestimated support for Donald Trump, alongside strong Republican, independent, and Hispanic voter turnout.
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that → require → turnout
Control of the House could hinge on extended vote counting in California.
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Control → hinge → California
favourable redistricting in states such as Texas, Florida, and North Carolina would help Republicans secure a slim majority.
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Republicans → help → majority
In the Senate, Republicans hold conservative states and flip Democratic seats like Michigan.
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Republicans → hold → Michigan
This result allows Trump to claim an electoral mandate and proceed with his domestic and foreign policy agenda alongside a Republican-led Congress.
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Trump → allow → Congress
Early indicators include solid re-election wins for Senators Ashley Moody in Florida and Jon Husted in Ohio, alongside Republican House gains in North Carolina, Ohio, and Florida.
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indicators → include → Carolina
What is at stake across the country
Voters will decide all 435 House seats, 35 Senate races, and 36 governorships across the country.
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Voters → decide → country
Heading into election day, Republicans hold slim majorities in both chambers, sitting at 218 House seats and 53 in the Senate.
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Republicans → head → Senate
Democrats need to net just four seats in each chamber to flip control.
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Democrats → need → control
Because of those narrow margins, the fight for Capitol Hill will come down to roughly 47 toss-up House districts and 11 competitive Senate races.
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fight → come → districts
The Aporia
