Control of the US Congress is the prize on November 3, 2026, as Democrats attempt to wrest majorities from President Donald Trump's Republicans in the midterm elections.
asserted
Democrats → attempt → elections
Voters will also choose governors in 36 of the 50 states, and nearly every state will hold elections for its state-level legislative bodies.
asserted
state → choose → bodies
Ballots have been cast for weeks, with early voting underway across the country ahead of Election Day.
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voting → cast → Day
The midterms, held in the middle of each four-year presidential term, by definition do not involve the president himself.
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midterms → hold → president
But anyone tempted to dismiss this year's contests as lacking drama or importance should weigh two statistics.
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anyone → tempt → statistics
More than 100 million people are expected to cast ballots in this year's midterm voting, if turnout is anything like the previous midterm in 2022.
And as of October 30, a record $11.6 billion had been spent on political advertisements for the 2025–26 election cycle.
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billion → expect → cycle
AdImpact, which tracks the activities, said the top spending is in battleground US Senate races in Texas, Ohio and Michigan.
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spending → track → Texas
Control of Congress is at stake
Campaign finance records show Elon Musk alone has spent $442 million to support Republicans.
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Musk → show → Republicans
Midterms generally attract fewer voters than the higher-profile presidential races.
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Midterms → attract → races
For example, more than 155 million votes were cast in the 2024 presidential election.
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votes → cast → election
In the House, Republicans currently hold a 218-214 majority, with two vacancies and one independent who caucuses with Republicans.
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who → hold → Republicans
Democrats must win a net gain of four seats to take control of the chamber.
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Democrats → win → chamber
Can midterms affect the presidency?
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midterms → affect → presidency
The Senate is also in play, where Republicans hold a 53-47 majority.
asserted
Republicans → hold → majority
Democrats must net four additional seats to get control there.
asserted
Democrats → net → control
Ten races, including those in Maine, Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa and Georgia, could decide the outcome.
uncertain
races → include → outcome
Trump's approval of his performance is at an all-time low of 32 percent, according to a September Reuters/Ipsos poll.
uncertain
approval → accord → poll
What are polls showing?
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polls → show → What
Domestic issues like rising consumer prices are likely to affect the outcome of many races and could erode support for Republicans.
uncertain
issues → rise → Republicans
Evidence suggests Democrats are more enthusiastic about voting this year than Republicans.
uncertain
Democrats → suggest → Republicans
If early voting trends continue, it could point to a Democratic win in November.
uncertain
it → continue → November
There are also signs that Latino voters who veered to Trump in 2024 might be returning to Democrats because of frustration over the economy and some of Trump's immigration enforcement tactics.
uncertain
who → be → tactics
Republicans could benefit from continued skepticism toward Democrats, a Republican spending advantage in campaigns, and fears among moderate voters over some primary wins by left-wingers.
uncertain
Republicans → benefit → wingers
Midterm elections generally are dangerous territory for the political party that holds the White House and/or Congress.
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that → hold → House
For 2026, that means Trump and his Republicans controlling the US Senate and House of Representatives are in perilous political positions.
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Trump → mean → positions
Recent midterm history
The midterms can be an opportunity for voters to, in effect, grade the president's performance, and possibly trigger White House course corrections if they receive low marks.
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they → grade → marks
Midterm election results can also give aspiring presidential candidates hints on how to tailor their messages to voters in the next presidential campaign, which in this case will be in 2028.
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which → give → 2028
Recent history shows the shockwaves a midterm election can produce.
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election → show → shockwaves
In the 2010 midterms, during Barack Obama's Democratic presidency, Republicans scored major victories, winning 63 additional House seats amid an underperforming US economy and weak support for Obama's landmark healthcare reform legislation.
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Republicans → score → legislation
Democrats lost their majority.
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Democrats → lose → majority
In the Senate, they held onto control despite losing six seats.
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they → hold → seats
The Republican wave was a "shellacking," Obama lamented at the time.
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Obama → lament → time
He subsequently faced Republican demands for significant reductions to non-defense spending.
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He → face → spending
Democrats returned the favor in 2018, with Trump in the White House.
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Democrats → return → House
They gained a net 40 House seats but lost a net two Senate seats.
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They → gain → seats
At the state level, Republicans currently control 55% of state legislative seats across the country, while Democrats hold 43.8%, according to Ballotpedia.
uncertain
Democrats → control → Ballotpedia
If Democrats manage to win the House, the next speaker — second in line for the presidency after the vice president — is likely to be Democratic Representative Hakeem Jeffries of New York.
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speaker → manage → York
Jeffries, who would become the first Black American to hold the powerful office, would be in a position to direct House committees to investigate a range of controversial activities by Trump and his associates.
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who → become → Trump
Jeffries has repeatedly said Democrats would look into what he has called "unprecedented levels of corruption" during the Trump administration.
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he → say → administration
Jeffries also would steer Democrats' legislative priorities through the House.
asserted
Jeffries → steer → House
…and 15 more, not listed.
The Aporia
