What the Republican midterm defeat means for Trump, the U.S. and Canada
U.S. President is weakened, but still holds lots of executive power and can veto Democrat bills
A thumping, a shellacking, maybe even a disaster: there's no shortage of strong words you could choose to describe the midterm defeat that American voters just handed to U.S. President Donald Trump and his Republican Party.
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voters → mean → Trump
The Democrats will take control of both the House and the Senate, according to projections by the major U.S. TV networks.
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Democrats → take → networks
But that outcome doesn't come close to describing the full extent of the blue wave that rolled over states that have been ruby red throughout the Trump era and in some cases, far longer than that.
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that → come → that
The Democrats won the races for U.S. Senate in South Carolina, Texas and Kansas, which haven't sent a Democratic senator to Washington since 1998, 1988 and 1932, respectively.
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which → win → 1998
Trump has no one to blame but himself for the result, especially considering that two of the biggest Republican losses of the night came from two of his hand-picked Senate candidates, Ken Paxton in Texas and Darline Graham in South Carolina.
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two → have → Carolina
Here are some key takeaways from the midterm results, and important storylines to keep an eye out for in the coming weeks and months.
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takeaways → keep → weeks
Trump weakened, but still holds lots of power
The outcome is a powerful repudiation of Trump's performance in his second term.
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outcome → weaken → term
Voters clearly sent a message that they are angry about the Republican president's failure to deliver on his promise of lowering prices, punishing him in particular for pursuing the war in Iran and for launching his tariff regime.
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they → send → regime
The big question now becomes how Trump reacts to that repudiation.
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Trump → become → repudiation
He's not known for taking criticism with grace or acknowledging he got things wrong.
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things → know → grace
A lot of observers are bracing for impact, expecting that Trump will want to lash out at the people around him he blames for the midterm drubbing and seek to go even further with the executive powers he's already used to unprecedented effect.
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he → brace → effect
Trump has plenty of time left in the White House to exercise the power voters gave him last election.
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voters → have → him
He's already given an early indication of what he intends to do with his executive authority, by posting an image of a red MAGA-style hat emblazoned with the word "VETO."
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he → give → word
Republican U.S. Sen. Darline Graham, Trump's hand-picked Senate candidate for South Carolina, speaks following her loss at an election night watch party in Columbia, S.C. (Sam Wolfe/Reuters)
Movement toward a Canada trade deal
Canadians have been paying much more attention than usual to the U.S. midterms, in large part because of the potential impact on how Trump deals with the country that he keeps threatening to make the 51st state.
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he → pick → state
Federal and provincial government officials have quietly been hoping a Republican spanking in the midterms would give Canada more leverage in trade talks with the Trump administration.
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spanking → hop → administration
There was a pretty strong indication on Tuesday that the White House was already reading the writing on the wall even before midterm polls closed, and is moving closer to a deal that Canada can accept.
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Canada → be → that
"They're asking less and they're offering more," Prime Minister Mark Carney told reporters Tuesday on the sidelines of a Commonwealth leaders meeting in Antigua, adding that the White House has shifted its stance on some of what he called Canada's "red lines."
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he → ask → what
Canada's former ambassador to the U.S., Kirsten Hillman, is cautioning the Carney government against making any sudden changes in direction.
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ambassador → caution → direction
"If they're having constructive conversations that are heading towards some kind of arrangement that would work for Canada, we wouldn't want them to stop that," Hillman said during election night special coverage on CBC News.
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Hillman → have → News
Democrats can pursue their agenda, with limits
The math in the House and the Senate will favour Democrats for the remaining two years of Trump's term.
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math → pursue → term
Even before election day, the Democrats signalled they would act quickly to advance legislation if they obtained a majority in the House.
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they → signal → House
Among their targets, according to reports from multiple U.S. news outlets: restoring the health insurance subsidies that had been cut by the Republicans, taking down Trump's tariffs and blocking authorization for the war against Iran.
Also expect a Democrat-led House to launch investigations into allegations that Trump's family and friends are profiting off his presidency.
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family → accord → presidency
However, the Democrats will still need the president's signature on bills to make them a reality, and that could mean fractious negotiations between the White House and Congressional leaders of both parties.
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that → need → parties
House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries speaks at a midterm election night event on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., Tuesday.
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Jeffries → speak → Washington
Control of the Senate means the Democrats can block or slow confirmation of Trump's nominees for cabinet, federal judges, ambassadors or senior leadership roles at many federal agencies.
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Democrats → mean → agencies
It remains to be seen whether the Democrats will be able to tackle the biggest concerns Americans have, especially given the limits to Congressional powers when facing a president like Trump.
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Americans → remain → Trump
A ramp-up of the war in Iran
There's been a stalemate of sorts between Iran and the U.S. over the past couple of months as the military campaign went quiet during the heart of the midterm campaign.
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campaign → be → campaign
The Pentagon changed that somewhat just hours before the polls opened on election day with a strike on Iran's Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz.
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polls → change → Hormuz
Plenty of analysts have floated the idea that the U.S. will try to "finish the job" in Iran with a military push after the midterms.
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U.S. → float → midterms
The results could accelerate that plan, given the likelihood that a Democrat-led Congress will try to rein in the war.
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Congress → accelerate → war
Adam Hamilton, seen speaking on election night, is the first Democrat Kansas has elected to the U.S. Senate since 1932.
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Kansas → see → 1932
The 2028 presidential race begins now
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race → begin → ?
Politically speaking, this midterm vote marks the beginning of the end of the Donald Trump era of U.S. politics, which we've been living in since 2015.
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we → speak → 2015
The jockeying for position to replace him has already begun.
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jockeying → replace → him
For the Republicans, even with this midterm drubbing, it's still hard to imagine that any candidate will be able to win the 2028 nomination without support from Trump's Make America Great Again wing of the party.
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candidate → imagine → party
Vice-President JD Vance is positioned as the heir apparent, but it remains to be seen whether he has Trump's secret sauce that has kept the MAGA base so fiercely loyal.
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base → position → sauce
The progressive and centrist wings of the Democrats will likely draw their own different conclusions from the midterm results.
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wings → draw → results
Democratic wins in the Senate races in Texas, Kansas, Iowa and South Carolina suggest the party can win red states — and potentially the presidency — with a moderate candidate who appeals to non-MAGA Republicans with a common sense, centrist message.
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who → suggest → message
The tight race for Democrat Abdul El-Sayed to hold the Michigan Senate seat could serve as a warning of the limits for progressives in the party, including those urging the Dems to take a tougher stance against Israel's conduct during the war in Gaza.
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race → hold → Gaza
This battle over which direction the Democrats should choose will be one of the most important storylines in U.S. politics over the next two years.
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Democrats → choose → years
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