Photo via Washington Examiner

GOP loss culprit? Trump dismal approval ratings track gas prices almost 1-for-1

Read the original at Washington Examiner ↗
Cite

Patteson, C. (2026, November 4). GOP loss culprit? Trump dismal approval ratings track gas prices almost 1-for-1. Washington Examiner. https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/energy-and-environment/4792351/trump-dismal-approval-ratings-gas-prices-2026-elections/

Dated from the outlet's own feed. Check the original for its byline.

Washington Examiner · collected 2026-11-04 · by Callie Patteson

Quick Summary

High gasoline prices correlated with declining approval ratings for President Trump from February to November, influencing Republican performance in midterm elections. The article cites specific dates and gas price levels that align with shifts in Trump’s net approval ratings, showing a significant negative correlation. For instance, as gas prices rose from $3.02 per gallon in March to $4.49 by May, Trump's approval rating dropped sharply. The piece also notes that while the administration downplayed concerns, record-high fuel costs under Trump’s second term surpassed those seen during Biden's presidency according to Department of Energy data released on election day.
Written by AI on 2026-11-05, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

AI analysis

Story summary

Historically high gasoline prices appear to have significantly impacted President Donald Trump's approval ratings and contributed to the Republican Party's loss in the midterm elections. According to data from the Energy Information Administration, since February 2026, when global energy disruptions caused by the war in Iran began, there has been a strong negative correlation between rising gas prices and declining approval for Trump. For instance, on March 2, 2026, with gasoline at about $3.02 per gallon, Trump’s net approval rating was -14.30, dropping from -6 in February. By mid-May, as gas prices surged to $4.49 per gallon, his approval rating plummeted further to -17.50. Conversely, when a ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran in late June led to reduced tensions, gasoline prices fell to around $3.83 per gallon, coinciding with an uptick in Trump's approval ratings. This trend suggests that as Americans paid more for gas, they became less supportive of the president.

Written for “Trump Approval Ratings Track Gas Prices” on 2026-11-05, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.
Why this leaning score
The article's own words the score was based on. Each is quoted verbatim and was checked against the article text before being stored, so you can find it in the original.
Reading Leans left (beta estimate) Confidence high
Leaning: leans left for article 129372 (high confidence, 3 verified quotes) · logged 2026-11-05

Story

📰 Trump Approval Ratings Track Gas Prices
Politics · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

Compared with similar articles

This article reads leans left and hedges 24% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
Trump’s approval rating is near a career low ahead of elections, poll finds Different event
South China Morning Post
Hedges 1 of 4 claims Outlet record 62/100
“The articles discuss related topics but cover different time periods and data analyses.”
Tracking U.S., state and county gas prices, in maps and charts Different event
NBC News
⚖️ Leans right further right than this Hedges 4 of 9 claims Outlet record 78/100
“Article A focuses on tracking gas prices related to the war in Iran, while Article B discusses the impact of rising gas prices on President Trump's approval ratings and the Republican Party's performance in midterm elections.”
Gas prices in Trump’s second term hit record high for any presidency Different event
Washington Examiner
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 1 of 2 claims Outlet record 69/100
“The articles discuss related topics (gas prices during Trump's second term) but describe different aspects and timeframes, thus not describing the exact same incident.”
US gas prices hit Election Day record Different event
Semafor
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 1 of 3 claims Outlet record 59/100
“While both articles discuss high gas prices affecting the political climate around Election Day, they describe different aspects of the situation and are from slightly different times.”
Karoline Leavitt says Trump was crushed because Americans 'forgot about his good policy and listened to the lying media' Different event
Daily Mail
Hedges 1 of 27 claims Outlet record 69/100
“While both articles discuss factors contributing to Republican defeats in midterm elections related to President Trump's policies and public sentiment, they describe different perspectives on the election outcomes and do not specifically report on the same single incident.”
How Tariffs Became the Millstone That Sank the GOP Different event
The Dispatch
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 0 of 3 claims Outlet record 61/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of Republican losses in midterm elections, one focusing on gas prices and approval ratings while the other discusses tariffs and war as explanations.”
Democrats push Trump's low approval rating and affordability issues as Americans vote in midterms Different event
CBS News
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 0 of 2 claims Outlet record 65/100
“While both articles discuss Trump's low approval rating and its relation to high gas prices during midterm elections, they are reporting on different aspects of the situation over a broader time frame rather than the same specific incident.”
Here’s how Trump and Republicans lost the U.S. midterms: AP poll Different event
Global News
⚖️ Leans strongly left further left than this Hedges 3 of 50 claims Outlet record 63/100
“While both articles discuss factors contributing to Republican losses in the midterms, they focus on different aspects: Article A attributes the loss to voter exhaustion and exasperation with Trump's promises, while Article B correlates the loss with Trump's approval ratings tied to gas prices.”
CNN nails election night with gas prices highlighted on ‘magic wall’ during midterms returns Different event
The Independent
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 5 of 21 claims Outlet record 59/100
“While both articles discuss the impact of gas prices on election results, they focus on different aspects: Article A emphasizes CNN's coverage and the immediate effects of the Iran crisis, while Article B analyzes the correlation between Trump's approval ratings and gas prices over a longer period.”
Karoline Leavitt makes surprising Trump admission after disastrous midterms for Republicans Different event
The Independent
⚖️ Leans strongly left further left than this Hedges 0 of 4 claims Outlet record 59/100
“While both articles discuss how rising gas prices affected Trump's approval ratings and contributed to Republican losses in midterm elections, they do not describe the exact same specific incident or occurrence.”
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
17
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
24%
4 of 17 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
Leans left
of the writing, not the subject · beta estimate
Publisher signals
69/100
Washington Examiner's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
1
Politics
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-11-05 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

Washington Examiner · 4257 article(s) · 8 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 8 correction(s)
2026-11-03
Police capture escaped Tennessee murderer in Missouri after over a week on the run
2026-10-26
Obama knows better. He just sacrificed 4,000 years of Jewish history
2026-10-19
DOJ launches investigation into DC jails over treatment of prisoners
2026-10-11
An ‘Epic’ failure: I paid my hospital bill — then their AI demanded $27,000 more
2026-10-09
Christa Pike woke up: With a 7% botch rate, lethal injection is an engineering disaster
2026-10-03
Tennessee’s prison chief resigns after failed Christa Pike execution, Bill Lee says
2026-10-03
Alito says there’s no perfect time to retire while confirming he will reconsider next year
2026-10-01
Christa Pike was set to be the first woman to be executed in Tennessee in 200 years before botched attempts: What to know

Who wrote this

Callie Patteson
38 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 We’ll be watching next week how the flipped chambers may influence immediate issues still before members in the lame-duck session, such as permitting reform.
2026-11-04 · assertive framing · Daily on Energy: How the data center ballot measures fared
🔮 By mid-May, gas prices jumped to $4.49 per gallon, and Trump’s approval rating plummeted to -17.50.
2026-11-04 · mixed framing · GOP loss culprit? Trump dismal approval ratings track gas prices almost 1-for-1
🔮 Democrats are set to try to reverse the Republican agenda of the past two years, which was to cut funding for wind and solar power while deregulating fossil fuel industries.
2026-11-04 · assertive framing · Incoming Democratic majorities will try to swing pendulum back on clean energy
🔮 In today’s newsletter, we take a closer look at gas prices reaching a new record under President Donald Trump, just as some voters will be driving to the polls today.
2026-11-03 · assertive framing · Daily on Energy: Happy Election Day!
🔮 Peak color in and around D.C. is expected to hit closer to next weekend.
2026-11-02 · assertive framing · Daily on Energy: Permitting reform watch
🔮 There are just four days left until the midterm elections and we will be keeping tabs on several energy and climate-related ballot measures.
2026-10-30 · assertive framing · Daily on Energy: The contests we will be watching on Tuesday
🔮 In today’s newsletter, Maydeen spoke with the Missouri Farm Bureau on how farmers are dealing with high fuel costs and whether recent administration actions are translating to lower prices.
2026-10-29 · assertive framing · Daily on Energy: Farmers squeezed by high fuel costs despite Trump efforts
🔮 Advancing these projects could be seen as a sign of good faith from the administration that it will fairly implement permitting reform for renewable energy as well as fossil fuel projects (although it is worth noting that doing so was ordered by the courts).
2026-10-22 · mixed framing · Daily on Energy: Changing winds for permitting reform?
🔮 He will be traveling to some key Senate races, including Kansas, Iowa, North Carolina, and Florida.
2026-10-19 · assertive framing · Daily on Energy: The Constitution Pipeline gets a national security boost
🔮 The Trump administration will use national defense authorities to spend more than $40 million on a controversial gas pipeline project that has been blocked by the state of New York for years.
2026-10-19 · assertive framing · Trump using defense authority to spend up to $42 million to develop controversial New York pipeline
Also by Callie Patteson
Daily on Energy: How the data center ballot measures fared
2026-11-04 · Washington Examiner
Incoming Democratic majorities will try to swing pendulum back on clean energy
2026-11-04 · Washington Examiner
Anti-Islam, anti-DEI Republican loses bid for Texas oil agency seat to Democrat
2026-11-04 · Washington Examiner
Anti-Islam, anti-DEI Republican loses bid for Texas oil agency seat to Democrat
2026-11-04 · Washington Examiner
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 38 articles by Callie Patteson →

Topics

Iran Trump Washington Examiner the Energy Information Administration the Republican Party

Subjects

Trump PERSON · 9× Iran GPE · 3× AAA ORG · 1× Americans NORP · 1× Donald Trump PERSON · 1× On Point Politics ORG · 1× Washington Examiner ORG · 1× the Energy Information Administration ORG · 1× the Republican Party ORG · 1× the United States GPE · 1×

Narrative

However, as the polls opened on Tuesday, data released by the Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration revealed that the average price of gasoline for Trump’s second term had reached the highest of any presidential administration.
framing: mixed · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-11-05
🔮 By mid-May, gas prices jumped to $4.49 per gallon, and Trump’s approval rating plummeted to -17.50.
2026-11-05 · Washington Examiner
GOP loss culprit? Trump dismal approval ratings track gas prices almost 1-for-1 · mixed framing

Claims (17 extracted, 4 hedged)

Historically high gasoline prices appear to have doomed the Republican Party in the midterm elections by driving down President Donald Trump’s plummeting approval rating. asserted
prices → appear → rating
Since the end of February, when the global energy disruptions caused by the war in Iran began, the drop in Trump’s approval ratings has been strongly correlated with rising gas prices. asserted
drop → cause → prices
A Washington Examiner review of gasoline price data from the Energy Information Administration and net-approval ratings tracked by On Point Politics between February and November found a very strong negative correlation between the two trends. asserted
review → track → trends
This suggests that the more Americans paid for gasoline, the worse Trump’s approval ratings suffered. uncertain
ratings → suggest → gasoline
For example, on March 2, gas prices sat at about $3.02 per gallon. asserted
prices → sit → gallon
That same day, the president’s net approval rating dropped to -14.30, a steep drop from -6 a month before. asserted
rating → drop → -6
By mid-May, gas prices jumped to $4.49 per gallon, and Trump’s approval rating plummeted to -17.50. uncertain
rating → jump → -17.50
On the news of the signing of the first ceasefire between the United States and Iran in late June, gasoline prices dropped to around $3.83 per gallon. asserted
prices → drop → gallon
Approval for Trump also ticked up. asserted
Approval → tick → Trump
By mid-to-late September, however, as gasoline prices soared to $4.48 a gallon, Trump’s approval fell sharply, dropping to around -20.90 points. asserted
approval → soar → points
The biggest drivers behind the higher fuel prices have been oil and oil product supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which had 20% of global trade traveling through before the war, as well as a loss of refining capacity worldwide. asserted
which → have → capacity
Soaring prices at the pump quickly became a hallmark of this year’s midterm elections, as the average cost of gasoline and diesel has remained less than $1 away from record highs. asserted
cost → soar → highs
As of Wednesday, the average price of gasoline was $4.12 per gallon, and the average national cost of diesel was $6.27 per gallon, according to AAA. uncertain
cost → accord → AAA
The Trump administration has attempted to brush off concerns, insisting that prices will come down as soon as the war in Iran ends. asserted
war → attempt → Iran
Trump officials have also repeatedly pointed to the fact that the highest-ever fuel prices were recorded under the Biden administration. asserted
prices → point → administration
However, as the polls opened on Tuesday, data released by the Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration revealed that the average price of gasoline for Trump’s second term had reached the highest of any presidential administration. asserted
price → open → administration
For Trump’s second term, the nationwide average price of a gallon of regular gas exceeded $3.46 a gallon, just beating the mark of $3.457 for President Joe Biden, according to weekly figures updated by the EIA. uncertain
price → exceed → EIA
💬Give feedback · no sign-in needed

No sign-in needed for now. Your note is sent without a name, so it cannot be answered.

🕘History 🎫Support
Terms · Privacy · beta v2.0.0
Articles to 5 Nov 2026