As Democrats are celebrating a historic blue wave, eyes are on the Senate race in deep-red Mississippi, where the Democratic candidate led the Republican incumbent by a razor-thin margin of 1,138 votes as of Wednesday evening.
asserted
candidate → celebrate → evening
The Associated Press has not yet called the race because it is so close, with Democratic challenger Scott Colom ahead by about 0.1%—he has so far earned 49% of the vote compared to Republican incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith’s 48.9%, with 96% of votes counted.
asserted
Colom → call → votes
It’s a stunning nail-biter of a race that, in the weeks leading up to Election Day, polls had suggested would likely be won by the Republican incumbent by a narrow margin.
uncertain
polls → ’ → margin
“I can’t recall the last time it’s been this close for a statewide Senate contest—or a statewide election in general,” says Aaron Hitefield, an assistant professor of political science at Mississippi State University.
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Hitefield → recall → University
“It’s unprecedented for [Mississippi] to be this competitive for Democrats particularly, certainly in the last 40 years.
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Mississippi → ’ → years
Political experts say it could take a few days before the outcome of the race becomes clear.
uncertain
outcome → say → race
If Colom, a district attorney, wins the race, it would be the first time that Mississippi voters have elected a Democrat to represent them in the U.S. Senate since 1982.
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voters → win → 1982
A Democratic victory would also be a remarkable shift in a state that President Donald Trump won by a nearly 23-point margin just two years ago.
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Trump → win → margin
Such an upset would cap off a string of staggering victories for Democrats, who have so far flipped seven seats in the upper chamber in this year’s midterm elections, including in other staunchly red states like Texas and South Carolina.
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who → cap → Texas
Both candidates appeared to be optimistic that the election would ultimately go their way, though they also acknowledged that the race is still too close to call.
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race → appear → ?
Colom said in a statement early Wednesday morning, “I am confident we will ultimately flip this seat.”
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we → say → seat
“The results are all trending in our direction,” Colom said in a speech to his supporters on Election Night.
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Colom → trend → Night
“The reality is, though, we’re not going to get the results tonight.
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we → go → results
I’m excited about our momentum, I’m excited about where we are.
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we → ’m → momentum
Speaking to a crowd of her supporters on Election Night, Hyde-Smith said she was confident that she would hold her seat in the upper chamber.
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she → speak → chamber
When will we know who won the Mississippi Senate race?
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who → know → race
It is possible that the winner of the Senate contest may not be determined until the end of the week—or even next week.
uncertain
winner → determine → week
The state has five business days after Election Day to count affidavit ballots.
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state → have → ballots
An individual would turn in such a ballot, which is also called a provisional ballot, in a situation in which they believe they’re eligible and registered to vote but are unable to cast a standard ballot—for instance, if their name is not in their local polling place’s records.
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name → turn → records
These votes are only counted once election workers verify the individual’s information.
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workers → count → information
Mississippi also permits mail-in ballots that arrive within five days after Election Day, so long as they were postmarked by Election Day, to be counted.
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they → permit → Day
All this means that it’s possible the race may not be called until a week after Election Day, says Emily Ommundsen, an assistant professor of political science at the University of Mississippi.
uncertain
Ommundsen → mean → Mississippi
“Because of the razor-thin margins we currently see, I don’t expect any results to be called before then,” Ommundsen says.
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Ommundsen → see → margins
How did the Mississippi Senate race become such a tight contest?
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race → become → ?
The tight race in Mississippi is one of many that illustrate the extremely challenging political environment Republicans have faced this year.
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Republicans → illustrate → environment
Historically, the party in the White House loses seats in midterm elections, and that pressure on Republicans was compounded in this election cycle because of historically low approval for Trump driven in large part by the economy, as well as the war in Iran.
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pressure → lose → Iran
Ommundsen says that, while ballots are still being counted, the result in Mississippi, so far, “is consistent with trends that we saw nationally.”
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we → say → that
“Nearly all counties that had a Senate election on the ballot moved towards the left compared to how they voted in 2024,” she says, though she notes that there are some exceptions.
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she → have → 2024
“Mississippi just happens to be one of those elections that was closer and perhaps more ripe for a flip.”
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that → happen → flip
Hitefield likens this year’s midterms to “a referendum on the President,” adding that “Democrats were turning out to oppose the President and to oppose the President’s policies.”
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Democrats → liken → policies
But he cautions that the close contest in Mississippi is not necessarily a sign that the deep-red state is turning blue or even purple.
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state → caution → Mississippi
It’s possible, he says, that Republican voters didn’t cast their ballots for a Democrat, and instead stayed home.
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voters → ’ → Democrat
“I wouldn’t necessarily read in, long story short, to Mississippi becoming a Georgia—you know, being a fully competitive every election state,” Hitefield says.
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Hitefield → read → ?
“But I think it’s certainly moving toward a state that you shouldn’t sleep on when it comes to electoral competitiveness.”
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it → think → competitiveness
Hitefield also says that there’s a lot of “voter apathy” within the Republican party with regards to Hyde-Smith, and she hasn’t performed as well as Mississippi’s other Republican Senator, Roger Wicker, in past elections.
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she → say → elections
Wicker won his re-election bid in 2024 by a more than 25-point margin.
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Wicker → win → margin
Hyde-Smith, meanwhile, won her re-election fight in 2020 by about 10 points.
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Smith → win → points
Hitefield adds that Hyde-Smith had some “gaffes” during the campaign, when she made some remarks about the rising cost of living that some voters felt were dismissive.
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voters → add → living
For instance, when asked about soaring costs, including beef prices, during an interview with WLOX in February, Hyde-Smith applauded the passing of Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill and went on to say, “It is on everybody’s mind.
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It → ask → mind
And you know, you have so many proteins to choose from.
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you → know → proteins
…and 13 more, not listed.
The Aporia
