South Carolinians have elected Republican senators in every election cycle in the 21st century.
asserted
Carolinians → elect → century
But recent polls indicate that GOP Sen. Darline Graham is facing a tough fight against her Democratic challenger in the race for the seat long held her late brother, Lindsey Graham.
asserted
Graham → indicate → brother
Polling by the New York Times/Siena, released last week, found that likely voters in South Carolina are essentially evenly split over whether they would vote for the Republican nominee, who was appointed by the state governor to finish the remainder of her late brother’s term after he died in July and later announced that she would run for the seat in the midterms, and Dr. Annie Andrews, a pediatrician who won the Democratic primary in June.
asserted
who → release → June
In August, the Cook Political Report rated the South Carolina race as “Solid Republican,” indicating that the GOP was widely expected to retain control of the Senate seat.
asserted
GOP → rat → seat
But the election forecaster later shifted the race slightly in Democrats’ favor to “Likely Republican
asserted
forecaster → shift → Republican
;” then, on Oct. 20, it changed its rating again to “Lean Republican.”
asserted
it → change → Republican
The race is just one example of how Republicans are apparently struggling to maintain voter support in this election cycle.
asserted
Republicans → struggle → cycle
Most generic ballot polls show that voters are more likely to back Democrats than Republicans in this midterm election.
asserted
voters → show → election
Other polling suggests that GOP candidates are even having trouble keeping leads in states that are typically considered strongholds for the party, such as in Texas, where most surveys have found that the Democratic candidate James Talarico is ahead—by a narrow margin—of Republican Ken Paxton in a heated and expensive Senate race heading into Election Day on Tuesday.
uncertain
candidate → suggest → Tuesday
This trend is also visible in gubernatorial races, such as the one in Ohio, where Republican candidate Vivek Ramaswamy has launched an aggressive and controversial campaign against his Democratic opponent Dr. Amy Acton.
asserted
Ramaswamy → launch → opponent
The last time Ohioans elected a Democrat to be their governor was in 2006, but the Cook Political Report recently shifted its rating of the race from “Toss Up” to “Lean Democrat.”
asserted
Report → elect → Democrat
Political experts say the battle for South Carolina’s Senate seat is in line with this national trend.
asserted
battle → say → trend
They also say, though, that there are local circumstances that have contributed to how tight the race has become.
asserted
race → say → ?
According to political experts, part of the reason the race in South Carolina has become so close is because the current national political environment is challenging for Republicans.
uncertain
environment → accord → Republicans
Historically speaking, the sitting President’s party tends to lose seats in Congress during midterm elections.
asserted
party → speak → elections
And right now, the pressure on Republicans is being compounded by the fact that President Donald Trump’s approval rating has dropped to a new low; the last time a President’s approval rating fell to a comparable level heading into the midterms was in 1946, when Harry Truman was in the Oval Office.
asserted
Truman → compound → Office
Polling shows that the economy and the war in Iran are significant contributors to the public’s dissatisfaction with the President and his Administration.
asserted
economy → show → President
“That’s hurting Republicans everywhere across the country,” says Joseph Ura, a professor of political science at Clemson University.
asserted
Ura → hurt → University
“You see tight races in places that aren’t usually tight for Republicans, like Texas and in Ohio … so that’s everywhere, including South Carolina.”
asserted
that → see → Carolina
On top of that, there are local circumstances at play that were set in motion by Lindsey Graham’s death in July.
asserted
that → be → July
Before his death, Lindsey Graham, who had held his seat in the upper chamber since 2003 and served in the House before that, was running for re-election and won the Republican primary in June by a nearly 28-point margin.
asserted
who → hold → margin
He was widely expected to win the general election in November.
asserted
He → expect → November
But his death “fundamentally changed the race,” says Shannon Bridgmon, a political scientist at the University of South Carolina.
asserted
Bridgmon → change → Carolina
Although Darline Graham is technically running as an incumbent, she has been in the upper chamber for only a few months, so “the race is functioning as an open race within the state,” Bridgmon says.
asserted
Bridgmon → run → state
“That—I don’t want to say never happens here, but it’s certainly rare.”
asserted
it → want → ?
Over the summer, a crowded field of Republican candidates sought the party’s nomination to vie for Lindsey Graham’s seat.
asserted
field → seek → seat
But no candidate was able to secure a majority of the vote in the August primary, so the race advanced to a runoff election later that month between Darline Graham and Rep. Ralph Norman.
asserted
race → secure → Graham
Darline Graham ultimately emerged victorious by a less than 5-point margin.
asserted
Graham → emerge → margin
The primary, Bridgmon says, “created this significant fracture” within the Republican party, as voters were split between Darline Graham and Norman.
asserted
voters → say → Graham
The divisions within the GOP have become even more apparent as Norman has said that he has no plans to join the Senator’s campaign.
asserted
he → become → campaign
He has said, however, that he intends to vote for her.
asserted
he → say → her
“There seems to be some sort of dissatisfaction within the party that [Darline Graham] is the nominee,” Bridgmon says.
asserted
Bridgmon → seem → party
“There were questions about ‘Should she just gracefully finish out the late Sen. Graham’s term and step aside?’
asserted
she → be → term
There were some resentments there in some of those camps, and there have even been whispers and, well, rumblings, I would say, about a write-in campaign for Norman among his most ardent supporters.”
asserted
I → be → supporters
Scott Huffmon, a professor of political science at Winthrop University and director of the Center for Public Opinion & Policy Research, says that some Republicans seem to feel that Darline Graham was “ordained” as the party’s candidate.
asserted
Graham → say → candidate
In July, Trump publicly praised her, urging her to run in November even before she had announced her intention to vie for a full term.
asserted
she → praise → term
Huffmon adds that some of the more conservative members of the Republican Party had not been big supporters of Lindsey Graham because they thought he was “too liberal.”
asserted
he → add → Graham
“Now you have a situation where the most conservative people within the party feel that their voice has been ignored, they’ve had a candidate foisted on them, and that candidate happens to be the sister of the person they had a problem with before,” Huffmon says.
asserted
Huffmon → have → problem
“Their internal fight has sort of made this a race that Darline Graham is kind of fighting to win instead of coasting.”
asserted
Graham → make → ?
Before she was appointed to finish out the remainder of her brother’s term, Darline Graham had never held an elected office.
asserted
Graham → appoint → office
…and 14 more, not listed.
The Aporia
