Polling conducted by the Harris Poll for the Guardian before the election shows just how angry voters were and points to one key reason Republicans lost so badly: plummeting support from rural voters, once a key constituency of Donald Trump’s base.
asserted
Republicans → conduct → base
Over the summer, 95% of Americans indicated they believed there was an affordability crisis, particularly because of steep gas and grocery prices.
asserted
they → indicate → prices
By October, 61% of voters believed the country was experiencing a recession, even though technically it wasn’t.
asserted
it → believe → recession
It’s hard to ignore the impact inflation has had on this election.
asserted
inflation → ’ → election
Key voters had expressed for months deep discontent with what had become the status quo.
asserted
what → express → discontent
Loggers in Maine said that tariffs against Canada were hurting their already-battered industry.
asserted
tariffs → say → industry
Drivers in Texas facing three-hour commutes to work were spending $400 a month on gas.
asserted
Drivers → face → gas
Farmers across the midwest said diesel prices were exacerbating a growing season beleaguered by drought.
asserted
prices → say → drought
Recent data showed the flip wasn’t just seen among Democrats and independents, who have held pessimistic views on the economy since Trump returned to office, but among some Republicans, too.
asserted
Trump → show → Republicans
In February, right before the war in Iran began, 49% of Republicans said the economy was getting better.
asserted
economy → begin → Republicans
By October, that number would drop to just 28%.
asserted
number → drop → %
The pain seemed especially acute for rural voters, long considered a core base for Trump.
asserted
pain → seem → Trump
The president had gained many of his supporters by angling himself as a successful businessman who would be an outsider in Washington.
asserted
who → gain → Washington
But soaring gas and diesel prices have been a major pain point in parts of the country where driving long distances is an everyday part of life.
asserted
driving → soar → life
Rural voters were much more likely to say that gas prices were hurting their finances and that they were in economic “survival mode”, or that one surprise bill could sink them, compared with their urban and suburban counterparts.
uncertain
bill → say → counterparts
They were also slightly more likely to say that Republicans had a bigger problem with corruption, or elected officials using their position for personal financial gain, than Democrats.
asserted
Republicans → say → Democrats
In the month before the midterms, the number of rural Americans who said the economy was getting worse climbed 17% since Trump took office, compared with a 5% increase for those in the suburbs and a 3% jump among urban voters.
asserted
Trump → say → voters
Yet on the eve of the midterm elections, Trump was trying to speak a different reality into existence, one where gas prices were going down, wages were rising and the US’s trade with other countries had never been stronger.
asserted
trade → try → countries
“I’ve traveled all across the country, spoken at all of these rallies I’ve done over the last two and a half weeks, and America is ready to go.
asserted
America → travel → weeks
They’re ready to vote,” Trump said in front of the Lincoln Memorial’s reflecting pool on Monday.
asserted
Trump → ’re → Monday
“I hope they’re ready to do the right thing.
asserted
they → hope → thing
But the reality that Americans have been facing is vastly different, and Americans responded accordingly.
asserted
Americans → face → that
Republicans in key races from Maine to Texas lost their toss-up races on Tuesday, and Democrats will have control of Congress for the next two years.
asserted
Democrats → lose → years
Democrats have promised they will be busy trying to address the issues that were at the forefront of the election: the Trump administration’s brutal immigration crackdown, corruption in the White House, rising healthcare costs and the economy, specifically higher prices.
asserted
that → promise → House
Republicans are just starting to take stock of the role prices had on the election outcome.
asserted
prices → start → outcome
JD Vance on Wednesday said the loss was the “cost to pay” for the Iran war.
asserted
loss → say → war
“Any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there,” Vance said.
asserted
Vance → go → ?
As much as the midterms were a “blue-nami” for Democrats, pre-midterm polls showed voters were still unsure about the party’s ability to deal with affordability.
asserted
voters → show → affordability
When asked which party had the solution to the affordability crisis a month before the election, 34% said that neither party had a solution.
asserted
party → ask → solution
Democrats (27%) slightly edged out Republicans (24%), but many voters seemed unsure whether any party could deal with these pocketbook issues.
uncertain
party → edge → issues
Similar polling conducted before the 2024 presidential election showed that key independent voters were feeling just as pessimistic about the economy.
asserted
voters → conduct → economy
Inflation had reached a generational high in 2022, and many Americans felt that Biden and Democrats weren’t doing enough.
asserted
Biden → reach → 2022
Price increases under Trump, particularly after the Iran war, have only gotten worse.
asserted
increases → get → war
But many voters are dealing with years of economic burnout and will expect results in the coming years.
asserted
voters → deal → years
The Aporia
