With US Congress flipped, Trump faces hard choices on the Iran war
LONDON –
asserted
Trump → flip → war
US President Donald Trump has never been freer to bomb Iran than he is at the moment.
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he → bomb → moment
True, he suffered a severe drubbing from the US electorate.
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he → suffer → electorate
It’s also undoubtedly true that one of the chief reasons for this wholesale electoral defeat was the unpopular war which Trump launched against Iran.
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Trump → ’ → Iran
The new Democrat-controlled Congress does not convene until January.
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Congress → control → January
Trump has been fairly explicit that, the moment the Nov 3 midterm elections are over, shooting time in the Gulf may re-start.
uncertain
time → re → Gulf
Any decision Trump now takes is fraught with serious dangers.
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Trump → take → dangers
Legally, Trump retains every US commander-in-chief authority he exercised when he ordered the start of Operation Epic Fury – as the latest war against Iran is called – on Feb 28, 2026.
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war → retain → Feb
He keeps such powers until Jan 20, 2029, when his presidential term expires.
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term → keep → Jan
If Trump wants one more supposedly decisive strike against Iran, the period between now and Jan 3, 2027 – when the new Congress starts work – is optimal.
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Congress → want → work
Meanwhile, the Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier group is in the South China Sea, sailing speedily towards the Gulf.
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group → sail → Gulf
Congress has never passed a dedicated appropriation for the war.
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Congress → pass → war
The White House sent a US$87.6 billion (S$111.8 billion) supplemental financial request in June, but this was never debated.
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this → send → June
The war has therefore been paid for out of existing military appropriations, unspent balances from the 2025 allocations of funds, and the Pentagon’s own discretion – which is why Trump can continue to pursue this campaign for at least the next two months.
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Trump → pay → months
Financial and political obstacles
The snag for the US administration is that the essential interceptors, standoff weapons and the industrial base required to replace all the munitions needed for the war cannot be funded beyond the current financial authority, which expires on Dec 11.
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which → require → Dec
The current Republican-controlled Congress can still authorise new funds before Christmas, but that won’t be easy because the Republicans are now deeply split over the wisdom of the war.
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Republicans → control → war
Vice-President J.D. Vance’s open admission that the Republicans lost the midterm elections because of the Iran war has exacerbated these divisions.
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Republicans → lose → divisions
No Republican lawmaker who dreams of returning to active politics in the near future would wish to be associated with the war.
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who → dream → war
So, although the US Congress cannot order the US Navy home, it can decline to buy the bombs required.
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it → order → bombs
Vance has spent eight months as the administration’s least enthusiastic supporter of a war he privately resisted, and he has now converted that position into a public one, with an evident eye to the next US presidential election in 2028.
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he → spend → 2028
This is an argument between a president with nothing left to lose and a vice-president with everything still to win, and it will run inside the executive branch for the next two years.
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it → leave → years
Democratic lawmakers will hold hearings on the war and Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth’s conduct of the campaign.
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lawmakers → hold → campaign
There is talk of a Hegseth impeachment vote even before the newly-elected Congress convenes.
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Congress → be → vote
Republican Representative Thomas Massie had filed articles of impeachment against Hegseth on Sept 15, accusing him of abusing his office by executing an order for hostilities against Iran without approval by Congress.
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Massie → file → Congress
None of this will end the conflict, but it does make the conduct of the war much more difficult for Trump, since every US official is now keen to distance himself or herself from this military adventure.
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official → end → adventure
On the eve of the midterm elections, Trump announced that the US would end roughly US$4 billion in annual military aid to Israel by the conclusion of this year, explicitly because Republicans are damaged by it.
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Republicans → announce → it
The military situation in the Gulf will not get any easier.
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situation → get → Gulf
Decision makers inside Iran appear to have drawn the conclusion that the White House is now hobbled by the outcome of the midterm elections, and are therefore hardening
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House → appear → elections
Iran is now demanding an immediate lifting of the US naval blockade, a waiving of sanctions, release of most Iranian frozen funds, and a ceasefire that extends to Hezbollah – the Iranian proxy in Lebanon, in return for agreeing to open the Strait of Hormuz.
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that → demand → Hormuz
Trump is highly unlikely to accept such conditions, partly because they will signify a very public defeat for the US, and also because they won’t solve either the military challenge from Iran, or the problem of high oil prices.
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they → accept → prices
Indeed, an Iranian political victory would make oil exports riskier and more expensive, and only accelerate regional tensions.
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exports → make → tensions
Tehran has also resumed making ballistic missiles using stockpiled components in underground facilities and has ramped up efforts to target US personnel in the Middle East.
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Tehran → resume → East
There is also considerable evidence that Iran has regenerated military capacity faster than every US intelligence timeline predicted.
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timeline → be → capacity
US and Israeli intelligence assessments put Iran’s restarted missile production at somewhere between 50 and 200-plus missiles a month.
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assessments → put → missiles
Just as significantly, Iran is busy fortifying its nuclear installations.
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Iran → fortify → installations
The US military is already conducting low-key military strikes on Iran.
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military → conduct → Iran
On Nov 3, US aircraft struck Iranian missile sites after batteries fired at American aircraft over Hormuz.
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batteries → strike → Hormuz
Sensors, software integration and air defence systems are the key US targets at the moment, partly because Iran finds it hardest to replace such military assets, but also because the destruction of Iran’s air defences is a necessary prelude for future action.
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destruction → find → action
Trump has repeatedly threatened to rain down bombs on Pickaxe Mountain, a heavily fortified site south of the Iranian capital, close to the country’s major Natanz nuclear enrichment facility.
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Trump → threaten → facility
But in his usual “maybe I will, but maybe I won’t” tactic, the President has also periodically dismissed the idea.
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President → dismiss → idea
…and 1 more, not listed.
The Aporia
