On Tuesday, Trump and the Republican suffered a massive electoral defeat, losing control of both houses of Congress.
asserted
Trump → suffer → Congress
Many have called it a "Blue Tsunami".
asserted
Many → call → it
The defeat was caused by multiple factors.
asserted
defeat → cause → factors
But Trump's unconstitutional actions on tariffs, the War in Iran, and immigration played a major role.
asserted
actions → play → role
Violations of the Constitution don't always result in political setbacks for the perpetrators.
asserted
Violations → result → perpetrators
But in this case they did "bigly."
asserted
they → do → case
As Texas GOP Senator Ted Cruz put it, "Tariffs have made everything too expensive, and the Iran war has dragged on too long."
This connection is perhaps most obvious in the case of tariffs.
asserted
connection → put → tariffs
Since returning to power in January 2025, Trump has engaged in a series of massive tariff power grabs, repeatedly attempting to usurp congressional authority in this field, and use it to impose the highest tariff schedule since the Great Depression.
asserted
Trump → return → Depression
He started with the IEEPA tariffs.
asserted
He → start → tariffs
When the Supreme Court invalidated them, he tried again with Section 122 and Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, and the Section 338 tariffs against Canada.
asserted
he → invalidate → Canada
In each case, he illegally tried to transform relatively narrow delegations to the executive into a blank check to impose tariffs at will.
asserted
he → try → will
The net effect of these actions has been to raise prices for consumers, reduce economic growth, and impose some $700 billion in new taxes on Americans over a 10-year period (unless courts end up striking down the new tariffs, too).
asserted
courts → raise → tariffs
The tariffs also failed to produce the promised increase manufacturing employment.
asserted
tariffs → fail → employment
And most voters have come to realize that tariffs increase prices, and damage the economy.
asserted
tariffs → come → economy
Exit polls reveal that 66% of voters believe Trump's tariffs have hurt the national economy (compared to only 21% who believe they helped), and a similar percentage (64%) believe they hurt the economy in their area (only 14% believe they helped it).
asserted
they → reveal → it
Numerous other polls show widespread opposition to the tariffs, as well (e.g. here and here).
asserted
polls → show → tariffs
They became a major issue in the elections, linked to the broader issues of price increases and "affordability."
asserted
They → become → increases
Polls, pundits, and even Donald Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance all agree the Iran War was a major factor in GOP losses.
asserted
War → agree → losses
The military stalemate combined with resulting energy price increases have enraged voters.
asserted
stalemate → combine → voters
Exit polls showed that 74% of voters said the war was a "crucial" or "important" factor in their decisions, and the vast majority of them disapproved of Trump's conduct of it.
asserted
majority → show → it
And, as I have argued from the beginning, that war is unconstitutional because it was never authorized by Congress.
asserted
it → argue → Congress
As I warned at the start of the conflict, the failure to build up the public supported needed to secure congressional authorization greatly reduced the odds of success:
asserted
failure → warn → success
The requirement of congressional authorization for the initiation of war is there to ensure that no one person can take the country to war on his own, and that any major military actions have broad public support, which can be essential to ensuring that we have the will and commitment needed to achieve victory against difficult opponents.
asserted
we → ensure → opponents
Trump's failure to seek and secure that kind of broad public support has ensured that only about 27 percent of Americans approve of this military action, compared to 43 percent who disapprove, according to a Reuters poll.
uncertain
who → seek → poll
Other surveys show similar results.
asserted
surveys → show → results
This is a historically low level of public support at the start of a major military action and bodes ill for U.S. staying power if we suffer reverses or a prolonged conflict results.
asserted
conflict → bode → reverses
I think that prediction has (so far at least) been vindicated by events.
asserted
prediction → think → events
But, here too, various unconstitutional actions have damaged the GOP's political standing and hurt the party in the election.
asserted
actions → damage → election
Trump's cruel mass deportation policies have made ICE by far the most the most unpopular federal agency (surpassing even the IRS) and alienated Hispanic voters in Texas and elsewhere; this was a key factor in the Republicans' defeat in that state.
asserted
this → make → state
GOP immigration policies led many Hispanics who backed Trump and the GOP in 2024 to turn against them in 2026.
asserted
who → lead → 2026
In part because of indefensible double standards in relevant Supreme Court precedent, courts permit a wide range of harsh and cruel conduct in immigration policy, that would be invalidated in any other context.
asserted
that → permit → context
But many of Trump's policies went beyond even these overly permissive bounds.
asserted
many → go → bounds
As a result, the administration has lost many thousands of immigration detention and deportation cases, including many on constitutional grounds, and many before GOP-appointed judges.
asserted
administration → lose → judges
Trump's immigration crackdown has violated the Constitution in various other ways, as well, as in the case of his use of an absurdly broad definition of "invasion" in order to justify detaining and deporting even legal migrants without due process.
asserted
crackdown → violate → process
In all three of these cases, voter backlash arose primarily because of the awful - and highly visible - practical consequences, rather than because of the constitutional issues themselves.
asserted
backlash → arise → issues
Most voters care far more about military failure, rising prices, and visible cruelty of these policies than about their legality.
asserted
voters → care → legality
Nonetheless, it is still true that unconstitutional conduct played a major role in causing the tsunami that swept away many GOP officeholders.
asserted
that → play → officeholders
It would be a mistake to assume that unconstitutional policies always lead to electoral punishment, or even usually do so.
asserted
policies → assume → punishment
In many cases, voters are unaware of illegality or don't give it much weight if they do find out.
asserted
they → give → weight
Previous presidents have often avoided significant political backlash for violating the Constitution.
asserted
presidents → avoid → Constitution
…and 12 more, not listed.
The Aporia
