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Trump's hold over Latino voters crumbles amid brutal ICE backlash in brutal Texas blow

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Schwab, N. (2026, November 5). Trump's hold over Latino voters crumbles amid brutal ICE backlash in brutal Texas blow. Daily Mail. https://www.dailymail.com/news/article-16265481/latinos-texas-senate-governor-trump.html?ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490&ito=1490

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Daily Mail · collected 2026-11-05 · by Nikki Schwab

Quick Summary

In the 2024 Texas midterm elections, Democrats made significant gains among Latino voters, a demographic that had previously supported President Trump. James Talarico defeated Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in the Senate race by winning Starr County, which is 97% Latino, with a margin of 56 points. Overall, Talarico secured 55 percent of the vote to Paxton's 43 percent. Latino voters shifted towards Democrats due to concerns over economic issues and aggressive ICE enforcement under the Trump administration.
Written by AI on 2026-11-05, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

AI analysis

Story summary

James Talarico, a Democrat, defeated Ken Paxton, a Republican, in the Texas Senate race on November 7, 2026. This victory marks the first time since 1988 that Texas has elected a Democratic senator, signaling a significant shift in voter sentiment. The race had major implications for the overall control of Congress during Donald Trump’s presidency. Elon Musk contributed an unprecedented $445 million to Republican candidates and causes this midterm election cycle, making him the largest individual donor ever in a U.S. midterm election. Despite Musk's massive financial support, Democrats' victory in Texas highlights growing frustration with the incumbent administration and its policies.

Written for “US Midterms Elections 2022” on 2026-11-06, grounded in this article and the 120 other(s) covering the same event.
Why this leaning score
The article's own words the score was based on. Each is quoted verbatim and was checked against the article text before being stored, so you can find it in the original.
Reading Leans left (beta estimate) Confidence high
Leaning: leans left for article 132685 (high confidence, 1 verified quote) · logged 2026-11-05

Story

📰 US Midterms Elections 2022
Politics · 121 article(s) covering the same event. Compare every outlet's account →

Compared with similar articles

This article reads leans left and hedges 3% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
The Intercept
Hedges 6 of 35 claims Outlet record 97/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of voter concerns regarding ICE; Article A focuses on anxiety and potential suppression tactics, while Article B discusses shifts in Latino voting patterns due to economic anxieties and the Trump administration's policies.”
The Intercept
⚖️ Leans strongly left further left than this Hedges 4 of 62 claims Outlet record 97/100
“The articles describe different electoral outcomes in distinct regions (California's Central Valley vs. Texas) involving different candidates.”
CBS News
Hedges 0 of 1 claims Outlet record 69/100
Daily Mail
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 5 of 53 claims Outlet record 69/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of election results in Texas, but not the same specific incident or moment.”
Times of India
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 15 of 54 claims Outlet record 59/100
“The articles describe related trends but different time periods and events: Article A discusses the potential impact of Latino voters in midterms, while Article B reports on actual shifts post-Trump's gains in Texas.”
NBC News
Outlet record 72/100
“The articles describe different stages of an election trend rather than a single specific incident.”
Al Jazeera
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 0 of 2 claims Outlet record 60/100
“While both articles discuss shifts in voting patterns in Texas due to changes in voter sentiment, they focus on different aspects of the broader political landscape and do not describe the exact same specific incident.”
Euronews
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 1 of 6 claims Outlet record 60/100
“While both articles discuss the electoral success of James Talarico in Texas, they describe different aspects of the event: Article A focuses on the immediate reaction to the projected victory, while Article B discusses broader implications for Latino voters and the shift in political support.”
The Straits Times
Hedges 0 of 19 claims Outlet record 66/100
“While both articles discuss the Democratic victories in Texas, Article A focuses on the overall election results across multiple races, while Article B specifically addresses the shift in Latino voter support and its impact on the election outcomes.”
TIME
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 13 of 54 claims Outlet record 59/100
“While both articles discuss midterm election results in Texas, Article A provides a broader overview of national gains for Democrats across various demographics, whereas Article B focuses specifically on Latino voters' shift away from Trump and toward Democratic candidates in Texas.”
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
37
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
3%
1 of 37 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
Leans left
of the writing, not the subject · beta estimate
Publisher signals
69/100
Daily Mail's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
121
Politics
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-11-05 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

Daily Mail · 9583 article(s) · 22 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 22 correction(s)

Who wrote this

Nikki Schwab
16 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 After President Donald Trump won a majority of Latinos in Texas in 2024, Democrats were despondent that the long-predicted blue wave in the Lone Star state would never come. But after James Talarico and Gina Hinojosa scored smashing victories for Democrats, it's Republicans reacting with despair.
🔮 Take Daily Mail's quiz and find out Texas Democratic Senate hopeful James Talarico compared his rival, Republican Ken Paxton, to an 'obnoxious' bar patron during his final outing as a Senate candidate before Election Day. Talarico packed downtown Austin's barbecue joint Stubb's Waller Creek Amphitheater Monday night with nervous Democrats who were holding their breath to see if a Democrat could finally win statewide after 32 years. At a rally alongside Democratic gubernatorial nominee Gina Hinojosa, the 37-year-old Talarico stuffed his speech with pop culture references and with an example that his beer-drinking supporters would easily understand.
🔮 Take Daily Mail's quiz and find out President Donald Trump finished his sprint to the midterm elections Sunday night with final rallies in Iowa and Kansas, as a doomsday poll showed Republican candidates behind in all seven key Senate races. Trump hoped that headlining 30 rallies - and pumping up his MAGA base - would prevent a blue tsunami, where the GOP majorities in the House and Senate are wiped out.
🔮 The blue-collar coalition that powered him to the White House in 2016, and stuck with him through 2020 and 2024, may finally be breaking.
🔮 With nearly all reputable experts forecasting that the House will be captured by the Democrats, the focus is on control of the Senate, which will be decided by a handful states.
🔮 Trump was expected to head to Salina, Kansas, on Saturday to boost Republican Senator Roger Marshall, who's in a surprisingly tight reelection race, but strangely abandoned the adoring crowds and scheduled tele-rallies from Mar-a-Lago instead.
🔮 'It says something to the effect that: "Under no circumstances, and for any reason, will you even consider thinking about running for President if you had,"' Trump said before changing tack.
🔮 He suggested the media would have been all over the story had his mother bad-mouthed the President.
🔮 As for Melania Trump, according to observers, she didn't really give Kimberly the time of day when she was with Don Jr, so why would she now?
🔮 White House press secretary Katie Zacharia held a 14-minute press briefing on Tuesday, which was widely panned for its length and substance Over on CNN, pundit Ana Navarro had joked Tuesday night after Zacharia's first briefing that Jennings 'might get another shot at the apple.
Also by Nikki Schwab
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 16 articles by Nikki Schwab →

Topics

Democratic Democrats Latino Latinos Texas

Subjects

Talarico PERSON · 9× Texas GPE · 7× Democratic NORP · 6× Latino NORP · 5× Democrats NORP · 4× Gina Hinojosa PERSON · 4× Latinos NORP · 4× Trump PERSON · 4× James Talarico PERSON · 3× Paxton PERSON · 3×

Narrative

Democratic Senate hopeful James Talarico (fourth from left) and gubernatorial hopeful Gina Hinojosa (fifth from left) stand onstage alongside Los Tigres Del Norte at a late October rally in Weslaco, Texas Supporters hold up 'Latinas for Gina Hinojosa' signs at a rally sponsored by Voto Latino that took place on October 25 in Weslaco, Texas Overall, Talarico beat Paxton 55 percent to 43 percent with 99 percent of the vote reporting.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-11-05
🔮 After President Donald Trump won a majority of Latinos in Texas in 2024, Democrats were despondent that the long-predicted blue wave in the Lone Star state would never come. But after James Talarico and Gina Hinojosa scored smashing victories for Democrats, it's Republicans reacting with despair.

Claims (37 extracted, 1 hedged)

- Midterm results in full: See all the updated maps and charts - Who is YOUR president? asserted
president → see → maps
After President Donald Trump won a majority of Latinos in Texas in 2024, Democrats were despondent that the long-predicted blue wave in the Lone Star state would never come. But after James Talarico and Gina Hinojosa scored smashing victories for Democrats, it's Republicans reacting with despair. asserted
it → win → despair
Latinos in the state dramatically shifted leftward, with polling and anecdotes shared on the campaign trail with the Daily Mail suggesting it was prompted by economic anxieties and the Trump administration's overzealous immigration enforcement. asserted
it → shift → anxieties
Those working for Talarico's rival, Attorney General Ken Paxton, were in shock. asserted
Those → work → shock
One adviser to a Paxton-aligned super PAC simply texted 'no,' when asked if they had anticipated the Latino vote running away. asserted
vote → align → PAC
In Starr County, which is 97 percent Latino and which Trump flipped by 16 points in 2024, Talarico won by an astounding 56 points. asserted
Talarico → flip → points
He left Ken Paxton in the dust, 77 to 21 percent. asserted
He → leave → dust
'It wipes out 10 years of work,' Austin-based GOP communications consultant Matt Mackowiak told the Daily Mail. asserted
Mackowiak → wipe → Mail
'It was clearly a reaction to overreach on ICE raids,' he said Wednesday. asserted
he → say → raids
'The only question is whether that loss of Hispanic support is temporary or not,' observed Mackowiak, who worked as a press secretary for Senators Kay Bailey Hutchison and John Cornyn, the outgoing GOP senator whom Talarico will replace. asserted
Talarico → observe → whom
Democratic Senate hopeful James Talarico (fourth from left) and gubernatorial hopeful Gina Hinojosa (fifth from left) stand onstage alongside Los Tigres Del Norte at a late October rally in Weslaco, Texas Supporters hold up 'Latinas for Gina Hinojosa' signs at a rally sponsored by Voto Latino that took place on October 25 in Weslaco, Texas Overall, Talarico beat Paxton 55 percent to 43 percent with 99 percent of the vote reporting. asserted
percent → stand → reporting
Latinos made up 24 percent of the electorate and 70 percent went for Talarico, while 29 percent selected Paxton, according to The New York Times. uncertain
percent → make → Times
In the 2024 election, Trump won 55 percent of Latino voters in Texas statewide. asserted
Trump → win → Texas
The president also flipped traditionally Democratic Rio Grande Valley border counties like Starr County, which gave him 58 percent of the vote, while Democratic nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris, had 42 percent. asserted
nominee → flip → percent
Governor-elect Hinojosa, who is from the Valley, defeated Greg Abbott by 42 points there. asserted
who → defeat → points
She carried Starr by 49 points. asserted
She → carry → points
Voter registration in border counties rose 8 percent from 2022, the Texas Tribune found, the largest bump of any region in the state. asserted
Tribune → rise → state
And Talarico won nine of the border counties Trump carried two years ago. The Democrats also gained a House seat in the Rio Grande Valley, with voters choosing Tejano musician Bobby Pulido over incumbent Republican Monica De La Cruz. asserted
voters → win → Cruz
GOP redistricting efforts backfired too, with Democratic Representatives Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez retaining their seats despite the Republicans drawing them more red. asserted
Republicans → backfire → red
On Fox News on Wednesday, Talarico credited his gains in the Latino community with showing up. asserted
Talarico → credit → community
Texas Democratic gubernatorial hopeful Gina Hinojosa (left) and Senate hopeful James Talarico (right) appeared together at a final campaign outing at a barbecue joint in downtown Austin Monday night Texas Democratic gubernatorial hopeful Gina Hinojosa talks to the press at the Voto Latino event on October 25 in Weslaco, Texas. asserted
Hinojosa → appear → Weslaco
Groups like Voto Latino worked 'I went down there a lot. asserted
I → work → Latino
I showed up, which is something a - a lot of national Democrats stopped doing,' Talarico replied. asserted
Talarico → show → Democrats
'We took the Latino vote for granted.' asserted
We → take → vote
'We took South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley for granted. asserted
We → take → Texas
And I refused to make that same mistake,' he said. asserted
he → refuse → mistake
Talarico said that Latinos were motivated by a mix of economic issues and immigration. asserted
Latinos → say → issues
They were upset with the Biden administration over border failures, he conceded, but added they were also alarmed by 'masked men in unmarked vehicles kidnapping people off our streets.' asserted
men → upset → streets
Groups like Voto Latino also aided the Democrats on the ground, registering 412,000 Latino voters in Texas since the 2024 race. asserted
Groups → aid → race
'For two years, we were told the Rio Grande Valley had shifted to the right, but at Voto Latino, we never believed it, and we were not going to take a chance,' Voto Latino President and Co-Founder María Teresa Kumar told the Daily Mail in an email. asserted
Kumar → tell → email
Ten days before the election, the group held a rally that featured both Talarico and Hinojosa. asserted
that → hold → Talarico
They also brought the iconic Mexican band, Los Tigres del Norte, into the fold. asserted
They → bring → fold
Kumar said their presence 'meant so much.' 'They have sung the story of our community for generations, and when they took the stage, people felt seen. asserted
people → mean → stage
They felt heard,' she explained. asserted
she → feel → ?
With 95 percent of the vote counted, Talarico took Hidalgo County - which is 92 percent Latino and where Trump received 51 percent of the vote - with 73 percent to Paxton's 26 percent. asserted
Trump → count → percent
Hinojosa won 71 percent to Abbott's 29 percent. asserted
Hinojosa → win → percent
'Neither party gets to cash in on our community, and the Valley made sure of it,' Kumar said. asserted
Kumar → get → it
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