Drivers are starting to see some relief from high fuel prices.
asserted
Drivers → start → prices
For the first time in months, the average price of a gallon of gasoline has dipped below $4, according to AAA.
uncertain
price → dip → AAA
The price crossed below the $4 threshold on Tuesday, and is currently down to a national average of $3.94 for a gallon of regular.
asserted
price → cross → regular
Prices have dipped about 40 cents over the past month, with much of that decline happening in the past two weeks.
asserted
much → dip → weeks
"Many will assume the election had something to do with it, but that's a myth," Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, wrote in his industry newsletter.
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Haan → assume → newsletter
Instead, he continued, gasoline prices are dropping for a more banal reason: "For now, it's the seasonal shift, not politics, driving the relief at the pump."
Gas prices often ease in the fall.
asserted
prices → continue → fall
(Fewer people drive in colder weather, AAA points out.)
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AAA → drive → weather
Refineries also finish their annual maintenance by late fall.
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Refineries → finish → fall
So that adds a bit more gas to go around.
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that → add → gas
And the blend of gasoline that's on the market gets cheaper.
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that → get → market
Refineries make two types of gasoline every year: summer and winter blends.
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Refineries → make → gasoline
The summer blend produces less smog, because it evaporates less quickly in the heat; the winter blend helps engines start up in freezing weather, and uses a bit more butane, which helps lower its cost.
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which → produce → cost
(Normally, the switch happens around September 15.
asserted
switch → happen → September
This year, the Environmental Protection Agency and the Department of Energy said the switch would happen on September 1, citing gasoline prices that have been driven up by the war in Iran.)
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that → say → Iran
But none of those are the biggest reason why gas prices are falling, says Jorge León, head of geopolitics at the research group Rystad Energy.
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León → fall → group
The main driver is the falling price of Brent crude oil, which is now down to about $90 a barrel, and which is what refineries need to make gasoline, diesel and jet fuel.
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refineries → fall → gasoline
That price is falling because there's a bit more oil coming out of the Middle East via pipelines, and because market traders have rejoiced at the intensifying diplomatic efforts between the U.S. and Iran.
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traders → fall → U.S.
That progress could easily be reversed if the war escalates, León wrote in an email to NPR.
uncertain
León → reverse → NPR
"President Trump may see further military action as a way to regain negotiating leverage before Democrats take control of Congress in January.
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Democrats → see → January
If we see renewed escalation, much of last week's oil price decline could quickly reverse," he wrote.
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he → see → decline
Congressional Democrats have expressed their support for ending the war in Iran.
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Democrats → express → Iran
While they have limited power to do that, they do control the power of the purse, and can withhold additional war funding or hold back confirmations of key officials.
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they → have → officials
For now, if the price of Brent crude keeps falling, so could prices at the pump.
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prices → keep → pump
"However, this does not mean a complete 'normalization,' a return to the price levels we had before this conflict started," Jaime Brito, executive director of refining and oil markets for Dow Jones Energy, wrote in an email to NPR.
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Brito → mean → NPR
To get back to pre-Iran war gas prices, the whole oil supply chain would have to recover.
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chain → get → prices
Ships that have been running long alternative routes to avoid the Strait of Hormuz would have to return to their points of origin, then resume their normal routes, taking crude oil to refineries.
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that → run → refineries
Those refineries would have to pump out enough fuel to alleviate global demand — and depleted stockpiles.
asserted
refineries → have → demand
The whole process could take months after a lasting peace deal.
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process → take → deal
"Coming back to those levels will require a return to normal crude production, shipping and refining of the entire global supply chain," Brito continued.
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Brito → come → chain
And while $4 a gallon may seem like a bargain these days, in an update on its website, AAA said that gasoline prices are still the highest they've ever been at this time of year.
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they → seem → year
The Aporia
