In late September, Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents swarmed southwestern Kansas, where a large immigrant population is vital to the region's massive livestock industry.
asserted
population → swarm → industry
Businesses closed, and workers missed shifts, according to a local public radio report.
uncertain
workers → close → report
The Kansas Livestock Association said the ICE operations were "having a massive chilling effect on the legal, documented, skilled workers that put beef on the table," and warned that the "unwelcome political interference" would cause prices to rise for consumers.
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prices → say → consumers
Local officials said they were not given advance notice of the enforcement efforts.
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they → say → efforts
And perhaps the most telling comment of all came from Sen. Roger Marshall (R–Kan.), a Republican lawmaker from a state that President Donald Trump had easily won in 2024.
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Trump → come → 2024
Rather than cheering on the ICE crackdown, however, Marshall put out an official statement highlighting the "mass disruptions to local communities and businesses" and urging the Department of Homeland Security to be more "responsible" about immigration enforcement.
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Marshall → cheer → enforcement
Marshall lost his Senate seat in November's midterm election, as Kansas elected a Democratic senator, Adam Hamilton, for the first time since 1932.
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Kansas → lose → 1932
The ICE raids in southwest Kansas during the closing weeks of the campaign may have played a major role in that result.
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raids → close → result
The blue areas on the state's eastern edge are usually that way—even when Trump won the state by 16 points in 2024, Kamala Harris carried the counties around Kansas City and Wichita.
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Harris → win → City
What stands out on the Senate map are those blue blocks in the southwestern corner of Kansas.
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stands → stand → Kansas
Hamilton won Finney, Ford, and Seward counties.
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Hamilton → win → counties
That is not supposed to happen.
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That → suppose → ?
Trump carried Finney County by 35 points in 2024, and he won the other two by even larger margins.
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he → carry → margins
But that is the exact part of the state where the September immigration crackdown occurred.
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crackdown → occur → state
Dodge City, the center of the state's livestock and beef industries, is the county seat of Ford County, where voters swung by 39 points toward Hamilton.
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voters → swing → Hamilton
Across Kansas, voters swung 22 points toward Democrats compared with the 2024 election, The New York Times reports.
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Times → swing → election
As election guru Dave Wasserman notes, Trump netted about 8,700 votes from that part of the state in 2024.
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Trump → note → 2024
Marshall, the incumbent Republican senator, lost the same region by a gap of about 900 votes.
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Marshall → lose → votes
Hamilton won the election by more than 50,000 votes, so those counties were not decisive—but the results are dramatic and certainly "sums up," as Wasserman puts it, how Republicans lost the midterm.
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Republicans → win → midterm
"I'm very proud and honored that so many of the people out there voted for me," Hamilton told The Topeka Capital-Journal.
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Hamilton → honor → Journal
"I think what they knew, they'd been hurt by the present administration and even Republicans, state legislators from that part of the state, reached out to the president and said, 'this is not OK.'
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this → think → president
That seems to be the message voters sent, but so far it is unclear whether the president is listening.
uncertain
president → seem → ?
In an interview with 60 Minutes that aired on Sunday, Trump seemed to acknowledge that his immigration enforcement policies had gone too far.
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policies → air → Sunday
"I get very high marks for getting the bad ones out," Trump told Ross Douthat in that interview.
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Trump → get → interview
"But I get hurt because we also took people that had good jobs."
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that → hurt → jobs
Later, Trump admitted more straightforwardly that his immigration policy "might be too tough.
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policy → admit → ?
But that conclusion is in tension with the only significant change Trump has made to his administration since the midterm drubbing.
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Trump → make → drubbing
Last week, Trump announced that Stephen Miller, widely regarded as the architect of the administration's aggressive deportation policies, would be promoted to White House chief of staff.
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Miller → announce → staff
The backlash against Trump's immigration policies goes beyond Kansas, of course.
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backlash → go → course
In a CBS News exit poll last week, 58 percent of voters said immigration enforcement had "gone too far."
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enforcement → say → voters
But what happened in southwestern Kansas is particularly telling.
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happened → happen → Kansas
After seeing the reality of Trump's ICE policies up close, even some of America's deepest red counties turned blue.
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some → see → counties
The Aporia
