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Scientists have blamed climate change for the devastating floods in Nepal last month.
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Scientists → see → Nepal
The catastrophic event, which took place on August 26, saw a massive section of overhanging glacier and rock fall from Lantang Lirung mountain.
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section → take → mountain
This caused an enormous flood of water, ice and debris that swept downstream, killing over 1,300 people – with more than 5,000 still missing.
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5,000 → cause → people
Now, experts from the World Weather Attribution say that climate change contributed to permafrost thaw and glacial thinning that likely influenced the collapse.
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that → say → collapse
Worryingly, the scientists say this could just be a taste of what's to come as global temperatures continue to rise.
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temperatures → say → ?
Professor Friederike Otto, Professor of Climate Science at Imperial College London, said: 'Without much faster action to transition to zero fossil fuel emissions we will inevitably see more disasters of this scale occurring in the years to come.'
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disasters → say → years
Rather than a single extreme weather event, they describe the event as a 'compound crisis' with several causal factors
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they → describe → factors
The catastrophic event, which took place on 26 August, saw a massive section of overhanging glacier and rock fall from Lantang Lirung mountain.
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section → take → mountain
This caused an enormous flood of water, ice and debris that swept downstream, killing over 1,300 people – with more than 5,000 still missing
For their analysis, the team looked at the impact climate change had on last month's disaster.
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change → cause → disaster
Rather than a single extreme weather event, they describe the event as a 'compound crisis' with several causal factors.
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they → describe → factors
Firstly, they highlight the glacier thinning, which they say is a result of decades of atmospheric warming.
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they → highlight → warming
This thinning lifted the altitude of the freezing threshold on the high Himalaya by around 100m per decade, according to the experts.
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thinning → lift → experts
In the process, this exposed ice and permafrost deep in the bedrock to higher and longer thaw temperatures, weakening mountain slopes.
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this → expose → slopes
Meanwhile, a previous earthquake is 'likely to have also further preconditioned the slope for collapse', according to the team.
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earthquake → precondition → team
They explained: 'Although its specific contribution to this disaster cannot yet be confirmed, a massive 7.8 magnitude earthquake in 2015 may have further contributed to the slope failure alongside other geological and climatic factors.'
Looking at the temperatures in the region around the time of the disaster, the researchers found that both July and August were the warmest on record.
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July → explain → record
What's more, high snowfall in October and November last year added large amounts of water in the months preceding the disaster.
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snowfall → add → disaster
Professor Walter Immerzeel, Mountain Hydrologist at Utrecht University, said: 'We are witnessing fundamental, irreversible shifts in Himalayan mountain environments.
'
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We → say → environments
Climate change from the burning of fossil fuels is pushing the freezing line – the zero–degree isotherm – upward by roughly 100 metres per decade, exposing perennially frozen ground and bedrock to thaw conditions that are longer and warmer than before.
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that → push → conditions
'When you combine high–elevation permafrost degradation with glacier retreat and record summer heat, the structural integrity of these mountain walls is compromised.
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integrity → combine → walls
The catastrophic impacts of what can then happen are clear for all to see.'
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all → happen → ?
Worryingly, even if prevention measures are put in place now, we could see similar events in the near-future, the researchers warn.
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researchers → put → future
That's because past glaciers and high-altitude permafrost respond over decades to temperature rises – meaning past warming is 'already locked in'.
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warming → respond → rises
Manjeet Dhakal, Director of Climate Analytics South Asia, added: 'The magnitude of this disaster is testing Nepal's response capacities and the limits of adaptation.
'
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magnitude → add → adaptation
Every fraction of a degree of warming matters.
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fraction → matter → warming
Science must now drive urgency: deeper and faster global emission reductions, greater investment in understanding complex mountain risks, strengthened monitoring and early warning, climate-resilient development, and international climate finance support at the scale and speed that frontline countries like Nepal need.'
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countries → drive → Nepal
The Aporia
