The Republican brand repels voters even when its ideas find support.
asserted
ideas → repel → support
A struggle between establishment Democrats and democratic socialists could fill the vacuum, writes Ben Boychuk.
uncertain
Boychuk → fill → vacuum
At the risk of stating the obvious, the sky is blue, death and taxes are inevitable, and California is a very liberal state.
asserted
California → state → obvious
At the risk of angering my readers, I have even worse news: California isn’t secretly Republican.
asserted
California → anger → news
We don’t need last week’s gubernatorial election to prove my point.
asserted
We → need → point
And the results up and down the Golden State merely buttress it.
asserted
results → buttress → it
Of course, as I write, we don’t have the final results for every race.
asserted
we → write → race
We don’t need them, either.
asserted
We → need → them
We have the bulk of the tally, plus the benefit of elections and public opinion polling from the past 20 years.
asserted
We → have → years
Time flies, even when you’re losing.
asserted
you → fly → ?
The voters have been telling Republicans who they are for a generation.
asserted
they → tell → generation
Republicans might begin to rebuild by believing them.
uncertain
Republicans → begin → them
Xavier Becerra won roughly two-thirds of the vote against Republican Steve Hilton.
asserted
Becerra → win → Hilton
The other Republican candidates for statewide office are doing about as well — or as badly.
asserted
candidates → do → office
The margin isn’t 52-48, the sort of close result that can sustain a thousand theories about stolen elections and a few million bucks’ worth of fundraising appeals.
asserted
that → sustain → appeals
It’s about 66-34.
asserted
It → ’ → ?
No cheating required.
asserted
cheating → require → ?
The grim reality for California Republicans is that they haven’t won a statewide office since 2006.
asserted
they → win → 2006
In the latest registration report, Democrats make up 44.96% of the electorate, Republicans 24.69%.
asserted
Republicans → make → electorate
If a secret Republican majority exists somewhere, it has maintained extraordinary operational security.
asserted
it → exist → security
A toxic brand
Something more fundamental is going on.
asserted
Something → go → ?
I don't mean merely that its candidates lose.
asserted
candidates → mean → ?
I mean that the name itself discourages people who might agree with Republicans on taxes, crime, regulation, or any number of other issues from voting for its candidates.
uncertain
who → mean → candidates
Polls bear this out.
asserted
Polls → bear → this
A June 2025 Public Policy Institute of California survey found that 70% of likely voters viewed the Republican Party unfavorably.
asserted
% → find → Party
A September PPIC poll found that 44% of California adults thought the Republican Party had almost no good ideas.
asserted
Party → find → ideas
Only 23% said the same about Democrats.
asserted
% → say → Democrats
The damage didn’t begin with Donald Trump.
asserted
damage → begin → Trump
He arrived long after it was under way.
asserted
it → arrive → way
It’s hard to believe now, but California was once central to Republican national politics.
asserted
California → ’ → politics
Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan came out of this state.
asserted
Nixon → come → state
George H.W. Bush carried it in 1988.
asserted
Bush → carry → 1988
Pete Wilson won re-election as governor in 1994, when Republicans represented a little more than 37% of registered voters.
asserted
Republicans → win → voters
In 2018, voters with no party preference outnumbered registered Republicans for the first time.
asserted
voters → outnumber → time
Republicans have yet to recover.
asserted
Republicans → have → ?
The customary explanation begins and ends with Wilson’s embrace of Proposition 187, the 1994 ballot initiative to deny certain public services to illegal aliens.
asserted
explanation → begin → aliens
The proposition passed with nearly 59% of the vote.
asserted
proposition → pass → vote
Its opponents nonetheless built an organizing movement, and the battle left a durable mark on the GOP’s standing among Latino voters.
asserted
battle → build → voters
Political scientists have documented the shift.
asserted
scientists → document → shift
But a single ballot measure cannot explain 30 years of demographic change, political miscalculation, and the collapse of Republican strength in mostly white suburbs that once kept the party competitive.
asserted
that → explain → party
…and 86 more, not listed.
The Aporia
