“We have plan A’s all the way to plan Z’s, from our best-case scenarios to our worst-case scenarios,” Mohamed Khalifa Al Mubarak says, when asked how the culture, tourism, and property groups he leads are preparing for what might happen next in the conflict that has shaken the Middle East.
uncertain
that → have → East
Many of those plans are contingent on the US-Israeli conflict with Iran ending, but “if this conflict gets worse, we also have a very clear route,” says the chairman of the Department of Culture and Tourism Abu Dhabi.
asserted
chairman → end → Culture
The manga-loving 44-year-old member of Abu Dhabi’s Executive Council, whose other interests include sneakers, rap music, and basketball, has spent more than a decade at the heart of the city’s strategy to diversify its economy using museums, UFC fights, and theme parks.
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interests → love → museums
Last year alone, the city opened five museums and welcomed a record 26.6 million visitors.
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city → open → visitors
Culture and tourism are “the building blocks of our future,” he says.
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he → say → future
But the conflict has forced him to craft a response that combines a strategic pivot, reassurance to local staff and foreign partners, and continued commitment to his city’s long-term aims.
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that → force → aims
When the Iran war started in February, flights and events were canceled and the number of Western tourists to the Gulf plunged, emptying local hotels.
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number → start → hotels
“We had to basically rethink how we’re…promoting ourselves,” Al Mubarak says.
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Mubarak → have → ourselves
But, he adds, “We always understood that, no matter what happens… the machine doesn’t stop.”
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machine → add → ?
Before the conflict, Abu Dhabi was working toward a goal of attracting 39.3 million visitors a year by 2030, up from 24 million in 2023.
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Dhabi → work → 2023
It projected that those tourists would contribute AED 90 billion a year to the city’s economy.
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tourists → project → economy
Al Mubarak is still sticking to his 2030 goals, but he says the assumptions underlying them have changed.
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assumptions → stick → them
He now expects a 10-15% drop in visitors from the US and Europe compared to its original estimates, for example, with growth from other parts of the globe making up the difference.
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growth → expect → difference
So he has changed the focus of Abu Dhabi’s marketing, looking to pull in far more visitors from its own region, and from Eastern Europe, India and the rest of Southeast Asia, and Africa.
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he → change → Asia
The city is already seeing 5-8% growth in visitors from “some of our Eastern geographies,” he says, and much larger numbers from around the Gulf.
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he → see → Gulf
On Yas Island this summer, he says, “Some days I felt I was in Saudi, some days I felt I was in Qatar, some days I felt I was in Moscow.”
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I → say → Moscow
He recalls talking to two tourists as they watched the smoke from a drone attack on a French navy base in the first week of the conflict: when he asked if they were alright, they replied: “We’re Russians, so this is nothing.”
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this → recall → conflict
But Al Mubarak wants to use the current crisis to broaden its appeal to other parts of the world whose populations’ economic power is growing.
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power → want → world
Under his worst-case scenarios for the war’s outcome, his plans would focus Abu Dhabi’s culture and tourism strategy much more on its immediate region and the Global South.
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plans → focus → region
That grouping of poorer countries comprises more than 70% of the world’s population, he notes, and its people want “to experience a lot more than they have.”
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they → comprise → more
Westerners have been more put off by news coverage that he says exaggerates the security threat, but he has not stopped marketing to them, too.
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he → put → them
“We haven’t stopped acknowledging that they are a traveler and they are a future potential traveler,” he says.
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he → stop → ?
“We’ve kept [at the] front of their mind that the UAE is here and Abu Dhabi is here, and it’s going to continue to develop, it’s going to continue to grow.
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it → keep → mind
Three-quarters of Abu Dhabi’s hotel rooms were full again by August, Al Mubarak notes.
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Mubarak → note → August
At Aldar Properties, the commercial real estate developer he also chairs, new sales dropped 34% in the first nine months of this year, but at AED 18.9 billion were still higher than for the same period in 2024.
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sales → chair → 2024
Overseas buyers — from China, the UK, Russia, and elsewhere — made up 28% of the total.
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buyers → make → total
After the first day of Iranian attacks, he maintains, “business has really been as usual.”
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business → maintain → attacks
Projecting normality, and an alluring vision
Informed by its experience during the pandemic, Abu Dhabi kept cultural institutions open throughout the conflict to give residents places to connect and “a sense of comfort,” Al Mubarak says.
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Mubarak → project → comfort
To reassure his own teams, he set up daily management group meetings, and a stream of video conferences, emails, and helplines for employees.
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he → reassure → employees
What mattered most was to show that leaders were listening rather than just talking, he says.
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he → matter → ?
“Small things like that make a difference,” he notes, adding that his strategy starts with Abu Dhabi’s own residents.
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strategy → make → residents
The city wants to be a “home away from home” for the world’s culture-lovers, he says, but “we did not develop our cultural strategy and our cultural infrastructure for people to come [to Abu Dhabi].
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people → want → Dhabi
We developed it for people that are here.”
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that → develop → people
But Al Mubarak is equally keen to project a sense of normality for potential visitors who are contemplating Abu Dhabi from afar.
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who → project → Dhabi
“Imagine yourself in Abu Dhabi today,” he says.
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he → imagine → Dhabi
The weather’s good this time of year, so “you’d wake up in the morning and you’d sink your feet in beautiful white sand,” then maybe go for a swim, he suggests.
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he → ’ → swim
Then a tourist could go for an AI-personalized museum tour, a round of golf, some shopping, a concert at the Sphere (a $1.7 billion entertainment venue opening in 2029), or a comedy show.
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tourist → go → 2029
It’s “an imaginary story,” he says, but one “that could be a reality” for a visitor.
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that → ’ → visitor
The next step in realizing that vision will come on Dec. 11, when a branch of New York’s Guggenheim Museum opens on Saadiyat Island.
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branch → realize → Island
Some of Abu Dhabi’s partners have expressed fears about the region’s suitability as a home for their artwork in a period of conflict — “our French partners raised concerns on some of the loans that they’ve had at the Louvre,” Al Mubarak acknowledges — but he was able to reassure them that its buildings are “built to withstand things of this sort of nature.”
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buildings → express → nature
…and 19 more, not listed.
The Aporia
