US President Donald Trump, China’s President Xi Jinping and Russia’s President Vladimir Putin will hold their first trilateral meeting on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in China’s Shenzhen, the White House has confirmed.
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House → hold → Shenzhen
On Friday, Washington also confirmed Trump’s attendance at the summit, which will take place from November 18-19.
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which → confirm → November
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list of 4 items- list 1 of 4Trump, Xi and Putin to hold first three-way summit in China
- list 2 of 4Southeast Asian leaders to meet as Trump visit highlights trade disruption
- list 3 of 4Ukraine
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visit → hold → disruption
is running out of options, and Russia knows it
- list 4 of 4Ukraine, Russia race to build military satellite networks as war rages on
Talks will focus on nuclear proliferation, the White House said.
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House → run → proliferation
But they come amid significant global turbulence: Russia’s war in Ukraine, the US-Israeli war on Iran and ongoing trade tensions between Washington and Beijing.
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they → come → Washington
“I think what we’ll see is some pretty impressive photo-ops with a lot of really bombastic rhetoric from Trump,” Simon Mabon, a professor of international politics at the UK’s Lancaster University, told Al Jazeera.
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Mabon → think → Jazeera
However, he added, the three “collectively or unilaterally, are not able to bring about an end to the conflict in Iran or Ukraine”.
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three → add → Iran
So what does each side want and what will be the likely outcome?
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what → want → what
Here’s what we know:
What’s on the agenda?
Each leader has his own priorities, but there are some issues all will want to discuss.
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all → ’ → priorities
A top issue for Russia and the US is the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), which lapsed in February.
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which → lapse → February
The treaty was first signed in 2010 and caps US and Russian strategic nuclear arsenals.
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treaty → sign → arsenals
Russia currently possesses the largest number of warheads, followed by the US and then China, which is rapidly building up its own arsenal.
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which → possess → arsenal
Trump previously rejected Russia’s proposal to extend the treaty after it expired, demanding instead a “new, improved and modernised” deal that includes Beijing.
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that → reject → Beijing
China is understood, however, to be reluctant to join an agreement it was not involved in forming.
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it → understand → agreement
A senior Trump administration official told Reuters this topic will start the conversation but that “we do not expect to get any kind of agreement”.
US-Israel war on Iran
Officials also say the world leaders will discuss the Iran war, which the US and Israel launched on February 28.
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US → tell → February
strikes have, for now, ceased, the conflict remains in a deadlock.
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conflict → cease → deadlock
After more than 100 days, the critical Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and oil and gas prices are still volatile as ships in the strait continue to face Iranian strikes and seamines.
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ships → remain → strikes
One-third of China’s crude oil supply transited the strait before the war.
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third → transit → war
The conflict is also hampering demand for Chinese exports.
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conflict → hamper → exports
Russia, meanwhile, has profited from rising energy prices and recent sanctions relief from Washington amid supply crunches – particularly of diesel.
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Russia → profit → diesel
Trade wars and the race to control microchips used to power artificial intelligence are straining relations between Beijing and Washington.
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wars → control → Beijing
Trump hit China with a 145 percent tax hike last year, while Beijing retaliated by imposing 125 percent levies on US imports.
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Beijing → hit → imports
Tensions mounted further over China’s restrictions on exports of rare earth minerals needed to manufacture advanced chips and other technology.
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Tensions → mount → chips
The two countries have since reduced tariffs and struck several deals following Trump and Xi’s meetings in South Korea and Washington However, the recent scandal at chip firm Nvidia has prompted the US to allege that China was spying on CEO Jensen Huang.
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China → reduce → Huang
Beijing denies this.
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Beijing → deny → this
Will the Ukraine war be discussed?
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war → discuss → ?
A Trump administration official told reporters the US president will not bring up Russia’s war on Ukraine, although Kremlin officials previously suggested the conflict could be discussed.
uncertain
conflict → tell → Ukraine
China, an ally of Moscow’s, has said the Ukraine war is a European issue.
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war → say → Moscow
US officials also note that Washington is pursuing peace talks, with US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner visiting both Ukraine and Russia this week.
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Witkoff → note → Ukraine
“China is not really a part of that track, so it doesn’t seem appropriate to have the Ukraine discussion there,” an official told reporters.
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official → seem → reporters
President Trump has accused Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of “not wanting” to end the war, while Kyiv has reiterated allegations that the US has restricted its Starlink satellite connection that allows it to operate attack drones.
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it → accuse → drones
Trump has also blamed Ukraine for soaring diesel prices because of its strikes on Russian oil facilities.
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Trump → blame → facilities
At the same time, Trump has feted Putin, agreed to allow Russian diesel into global and US markets, and lifted oil sanctions on Moscow.
What does each side want from this meeting?
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side → fete → meeting
For President Putin, the meeting could provide a positive photo opportunity and a platform to project power while sidelining the Ukraine conflict, analysts say.
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analysts → provide → conflict
It will give him a “first among equals” position that he can display at home to show that he can influence Europe’s security architecture following the Ukraine war, Alexander Bratersky, a Moscow-based journalist and political analyst, told Al Jazeera.
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Bratersky → give → Jazeera
Beijing has already been pushing for a resolution to the US war on Iran, which has impacted its own energy supplies.
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which → push → supplies
China will also want to avoid being pulled into a nuclear treaty it had no part in establishing.
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it → want → part
Last month, China’s Foreign Ministry said it would be “neither fair, reasonable nor realistic to ask China to join the so-called trilateral nuclear disarmament negotiations at this stage”.
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it → say → stage
Trump’s priority is to include both China and Russia in a new nuclear proliferation treaty, according to administration officials.
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priority → include → officials
“The president has made it clear that, among other topics, he will discuss the reduction of nuclear weapons in the world.
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he → make → world
…and 7 more, not listed.
The Aporia
